Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 141940 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 340 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 AFTER COMPARING ALL THE LATEST MODEL DATA TO THE ACTUAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE NAM12 BY FAR AND AWAY HAS BEEN HANDLING THINGS THE BEST AND HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE...THE NAM12 SOLUTION WAS USED TO CREATE THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH NO PRECIPITATION ONGOING...AND NOTHING AT ALL APPROACHING FROM UPSTREAM...THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN POPPING UP AND MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIOD BETWEEN 4 AND 8Z LOOKS TO BE THE IDEAL TIME FOR ANY THUNDER WE EXPERIENCE AS THAT WILL BE THE TIME OF BEST LOW LEVEL WARM MOISTURE FEED. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES BY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SPILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BE WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES FLYING AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT OF SLEET. WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES EXTREMELY WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WITH THE SOILS ALREADY WET FROM RAIN...IT WILL VERY HARD FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS...WHERE THE TALLEST PEAKS COULD SEE MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING STEADILY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES. THE MOST PRESSING MATTER FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPECTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL HAVE FULLY SETTLED OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST FOLKS. SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS AND TALLEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS MAY EVEN SEE THE MERCURY DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WITH SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE EVENT. WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WILL EASILY KILL ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION THAT IS LEFT UNPROTECTED. A FREEZE WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE...BUT THIS PRODUCT WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING BY THE UPCOMING NIGHT SHIFT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 4Z TONIGHT. THE ISSUE FOR AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR BOTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND POINTS WESTWARD...IT APPEARS THAT THE REST OF THE DAY COULD BE RAIN FREE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BETWEEN 4 AND 6Z TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. UNTIL THEN...THE AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE OVERCAST CIGS OF 3-6K ACROSS THE BOARD. JKL WILL LIKELY SEE THE LOWEST CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THE TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WHEN WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET EARLY IN MORNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...AR

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