Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010758 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEY SPOTS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND NAM12 ARE REASONABLE. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY 5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF

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