Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251936 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 336 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 329 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 A cluster of showers, originating off the Cumberland Plateau and currently approaching the I-75 corridor, will continue to track northeast this afternoon. Surface-based CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG has developed and led to an afternoon cumulus field amid a steady stream of increasing mid to high clouds moving in from the west ahead of a disturbance stretching from southeast Saskatchewan through the Mississippi Valley. May see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bluegrass region, as this energy propagates toward eastern Kentucky. Further development will be possible across the higher terrain as additional low level forcing for ascent will be nonexistent. Will see this pulse-type activity quickly dissipate as poor deep layer shear will lead to cold pools quickly overwhelming updrafts. Lingering shower activity will be possible through the night as southwest flow aloft will be characterized by microscale shortwave impulses. Instability looks to be low enough to negate thunder mention with a diurnally cooling boundary layer. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will only allow overnight lows to fall into a similar range as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico remains in place. Despite mid to high cloud cover persisting, patchy valley fog will be possible given near-surface saturation. A similar story continues for Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in a weakly forced environment. Highs rising into the mid 80s will again provide ample enough instability for pulse storms in a weakly-sheared environment. Following any lingering showers Thursday evening, lows in the low to mid 60s along with patchy valley fog will once again be in the offing overnight in a moist environment. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 More summer like weather will remain the story for a good portion of the long term period. This is brought to us by a upper level ridge that will reside along the east coast, meanwhile a upper level closed low will be in place near the front range. This upper level ridge will keep the trough well west of the region. The issue here is we will reside on the periphery of this upper level ridge. This will result in the potential for a few weak waves, but right now models are remaining in little agreement overall. Given no definitive lifting features will stick with isolated showers and storms for now through much of the long term. There is another caveat as we move into early next week focus shifts to the tropics. There is a surface low that develops off the Carolina Coast this weekend and then remains quasi stationary with little if any steering flow. The NHC does paint the region in a 50% chance for tropical development in latest outlook. The GFS continues to and now the latest ECMWF bring a bit more moisture into the region, as a result of the tropical system by Wednesday. Therefore opt to introduce high chance pops along the VA border. Also given increased moisture and summer like pattern will see the potential for patchy valley fog in the mornings. Also areas that see any storms would expect a better chances of fog formation given increased moisture. Overall temps through the period will remain above normal, with highs topping out in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 VFR conditions to largely prevail through early Thursday afternoon as middle to high clouds stream in complete with an afternoon cumulus field. Not expecting any widespread ceilings to threaten VFR criteria, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. Have elected to keep mention out of all TAFs given expected low coverage, but could very well see brief MVFR criteria where a storm passes overhead. South to southwest winds should remain below 10 knots this afternoon before further diminishing this evening and tonight. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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