Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271409 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FEATURE A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS TRAVELING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL NOTHING NOT MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MOST CURRENT OBS AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY MOVING ENE TOWARD EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS SOME CLUE ON THIS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE QUITE ROBUST IN SPOTS. THIS INITIAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WAVE AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN KY THIS MORNING AND WILL PROGRESS EAST TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. GRIDS FINALIZED AND SENT TO NDFD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 OVERALL MODELS INITIALIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN QUITE WELL BASED ON 00Z UA DATA. THIS MORNING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW BEGINNING TO CUTOFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTING THIS UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOME CAM MODELS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION DOES FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE DID KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE A APPROACHING COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND GIVEN THAT MANY OF THE CAMS ARE MODEST...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS AT THIS JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN IT/S WAKE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BECOMES A BIT MORE CONFINED FURTHER NORTH. STILL...THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...AS SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BEFORE TROUGHING AND PASSING SHORT WAVES TAKE OVER THEREAFTER. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE NEARBY...ADDING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH EVERYDAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 WSR-88D RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF CIGS TAFS SITES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR TODAY BASED ON DOWN STREAM OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF STORMS AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS/GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ

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