Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 261921 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 321 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...ABOUT TO EXIT INTO VA AND WV. THIS CONVECTION IS RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE EXITING TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THERE IS A DRY SLOT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF CONVECTIVE LINE. HOWEVER...STRATIFORM PRECIP IS STILL SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD BE MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BIGGEST THING TO NOTE BEHIND THIS FRONT IS THE QUICK CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SW TO THE NW...AND THE SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. SOME 20 DEGREES DIFFERENCE HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THE LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND THE RAIN SHIELD FOLLOWS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW. HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ENERGY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION...AND WORKS WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE TO CREATE THE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT QPF. EXPECT THIS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. AS FOR PRECIP TYPES...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND SHALLOW AND OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT ICE GROWTH SHOULD BE UNLIKELY AND RAIN WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY...THOUGH COLD NW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A COLD RAIN POTENTIAL. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF AND MOVING OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME OF THE RAIN MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO MIX WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES. VERY LITTLE IMPACT /IF ANY/ IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SNOW. IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH AG EXTENSION OF UK...THE IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN PATTERN AS WE MOVE FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL A MODERATING TREND AFTER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN FACT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AND WILL THEN TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE MODERATING TREND OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL NEED TO ENDURE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN KY SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING FAR EASTERN KY...BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KSYM...KSME AND KLOZ WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJKL AND KSJS OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL LINE...WINDS ARE MAKING A QUICK SHIFT TO THE NW...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO WORK IN. EXPECT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE NRLY. STRATIFORM RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE BY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 500 AND 1000FT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE...THOUGH MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A LAYER OF HIGH MVFR OR LOW END VFR CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.