Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271448 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1048 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPDATED NDFD TO ADD MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN AREA OF SC IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO MIDDLESBORO. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECORD OF 81 AT LONDON IS IN JEOPARDY BUT THE RECORD OF 83 AT JACKSON WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 A FEW MORE CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING A VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOWER 80S...THESE WILL VERY MUCH BE IN PLAY TODAY. THE RECORD AT LONDON IS 81...WHILE THE RECORD AT JACKSON IS 83. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN GETTING THE HIGHER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH TOO MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO TH WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE HARD TO ACHIEVE DEWPOINTS MUCH INTO THE 50S. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS IN SOME AREAS ARE STILL IN THE 30S THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE SLOW INCREASE...HAVE OPTED TO GO MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON DEWPOINTS...PUTTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE WIND TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BY LATE EVENING. RIDGES SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TO START THE DAY...SO IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN. RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH THE RECORD AT JACKSON 78...AND LONDON IS 84 (MAY NOT GET THIS HIGH). SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MARCH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z. GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MODEST FORCING ALOFT SHOULD YIELD GOOD COVERAGE. THE ONLY QUESTION AT PLAY IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION REACHES PRIOR TO 00Z. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST (CATEGORICAL)...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE EAST...TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS POOLING TO AROUND 60 JUST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE HWO THAT A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...BUT THE SIMILARITY FADES WITH TIME LOWERING THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THEY ALL START WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS LOWER HEIGHTS PRESSING SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. THE ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GEM...TAKES A WAVE CYCLING THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AMPLIFIES IT DURING THE LATTER PART OF WEDNESDAY...MOVING IT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY VIA KENTUCKY BY 06Z THURSDAY. FLAT FLOW FOLLOWS FOR A BRIEF TIME IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW HEIGHTS FROM A VERY LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN ALSO FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH TAKES PLACE TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS TAKE THE CORE OF THIS TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS A BRIEF OCCURRENCE...THOUGH...AS RIDGING FROM THE WEST QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...MOVES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION AND PUMPS HEIGHTS BACK UP OVER KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACCEPTED GIVEN THE BROAD PATTERN SIMILARITIES...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF WILL BE FAVORED WHERE LARGER DISCREPANCIES EXIST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT DRYING EAST KENTUCKY OUT ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW RAMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL THEN PUSH A MOSTLY DRY...BUT SUBSTANTIVE...COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS WILL LIKELY BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA...LIKELY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY JUST OVER THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JUST SOME PESKY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. COULD SEE A BIT OF GUSTINESS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE JUST SOME VALLEY FOG IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...KAS

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