Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 272242 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 642 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 UPDATED SKY AND POP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REFRESHED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL BUT THINKING MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN SUB SEVERE. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A WESTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE WHAT BRINGS US OUR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR LIMITED...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY...IF NOT SOONER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED BY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 TONIGHT...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL BE UNDER A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH JUST LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT SET UP WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS FARTHER NORTH. EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAVE WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LACK OF FORCING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO. WITH THIS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEM TO FEATURE A DIURNAL LIKE TREND WITH THE MAX CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LIKELY JUST MARGINAL OR STRONG STORMS AT THE VERY MOST EXPECTED. AS WELL...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS WITH PREVIOUS STORMS WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE ALREADY LACK OF INSTABILITY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ANY CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THIS...WILL RESULT IN A COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE GFS DRIES OUT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE EURO KEEP PRECIP AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WAS DISPLAYED AS WELL WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING PRECIP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 THE AIRPORTS AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING MVFR CONDITIONS...THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD. DURING TIMES WHEN NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE AFFECTING A PARTICULAR TAF SITE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN GENERAL...WITH STRONGER GUSTIER WINDS ACCOMPANYING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR

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