Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 202000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST IN THIS FLOW AND WAS OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT IS DEPARTING HAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL KY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND INTO PARTS OF IN AS WELL AS WESTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL USHER A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST JUST OT HE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SFC LOW FOR THU NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE SFC LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH COMBINATION SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN BORDER AND THE KY/TN/VA TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT. WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS WELL...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS PROBABLE FRO MOST LOCATIONS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BRIEFLY GOING UPSLOPE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COLDEST SPOTS IN THE NORTH COULD REACH 39 OR 40...SO A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO AS THU NIGHT APPROACHES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST PART OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY AND BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE...BUT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ATTM IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z. INITIALLY WE HAVE VCSH...AND THEN PREVAILING -SHRA AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 6Z TO 7Z...THEN A DETERIORATION INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE NEARER TO 12Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS DURING THE LAST 6 HOUR PERIOD OF FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP

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