Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281200 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT OF VIRGA BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDING TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE VIRGA IS FALLING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY DRY AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WARRANTS A POP ABOVE 10 PERCENT. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS AS TIME GOES BY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 AFTER DAYS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE CONSENSUS NOW IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIKELY NOT BE OVERCOME BY TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AND STRATIFORM PRECIP NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA. MODELS DO PAINT ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB...WITH NO THUNDER EXPECTED AND ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE. REVISED POPS WILL PEAK TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AT ONLY 10 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TO NEAR 40 PERCENT BY THE VIRGINIA BORDER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. WITH NO SURGE OF COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GIVEN THE MODELS DECENT AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS A FAST MOVER...SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLDER SURGE OF AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1C BY SUNDAY MORNING. SAFE TO SAY IF THE MODELS HOLD ON THIS COLD AIR...THIS WOULD BE THE COOLEST PERIOD WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS FALL. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FROST/FREEZE CONCERN GIVEN WE MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME LOSING THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 FOG AFFECTING DEEP VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG IS GONE.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL

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