Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310621 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 221 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO TRANSITION AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN KY FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 WILL SEND ALONG ANOTHER UPDATE TO FURTHER INCREASE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS POINT TO SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...BUT THEN A LULL IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM AND SOME OF THE EARLIER 12Z HIRES MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP...WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS SOAKED THE MOST BY TONIGHT/S RAINFALL WOULD STAND THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING FLASH FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WOULD BE THE MOST THREATENED FROM THIS SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WATCH CONFIGURATION AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TWEAK AS NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT... UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 BECOMING READILY APPARENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS INCREASED FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A STREAM OF STORMS WILL RIDE NORTH OUT OF TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AN EXTENSION OF NWS NASHVILLE/S FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WAS COORDINATED WITH LMK. DECIDED TO EXTEND THIS WATCH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PASS OVERHEAD. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD IN TIME BUT RIGHT NOW COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT WATCH STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND PRECIP COVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF COURSE...IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON... SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT PULL OFF TO THE EAST. THE ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2 INCHES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... WITH MAX READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL STAY ON PLACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AS THE MODELS STAYED IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 MVFR OR IFR VIS AND OR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION WORKS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. VFR HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AS THE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WORKS NORTH ACROSS EAST KY...VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST THE 12Z TO 15Z RANGE. THE PRESS GRADIENT APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TAF SITES MIXY OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AT NON TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...JP

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