Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191738 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 WSR-88D is clear right now here in eastern Kentucky, with some showers and thunderstorms well west in western Kentucky. Updated to deal with this and update the text products to take fog out for the morning. UPDATE Issued at 838 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover through this morning. Some light returns are popping up on radar; however, these are most likely producing a few sprinkles at best right now. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 353 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 The latest surface map features high pressure generally ruling across the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley from west to east. Aloft, a short wave trough was moving from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with some mid and high level clouds moving towards the central part of the Commonwealth. This short wave trough will continue eastward today, bringing the threat of a few showers or storms to the I-64 corridor. Will maintain slight chance POPs here, with little if any activity expected further south. Highs will be in the mid 80s. An upper level ridge will build in across the area through the rest of the period, bringing mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Highs by Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s, after a night of lows similar to tonight, generally in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 423 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 Sunday night into Monday...Eclipse day...is still shaping up nicely with upper level ridging along and south of the region. Both the GFS and ECWMF are going dry for the CWA now throughout the day, with mostly clear conditions. However, the NAM12 is now putting in some very spotty convection during the afternoon. That being said, the model has been dry up until this point and seems to be the outlier compared to the GFS and ECMWF with strong surface high pressure in place...not to mention its later in the forecast period for this model. All things considered, kept pops below slight chances throughout the day. Temperatures will remain above normal with the strong ridging in place, peaking in the upper 80s both days. A few locations could top out at 90 degrees on Monday afternoon. Adjusted the diurnal curve around mid-day to accost for eclipse affects on temps Monday as well. Deepening longwave troughing is expected to impact the Ohio Valley for mid and late week. At the surface, a cold front will push southward through the state during the day Tuesday, increasing the SW flow across the region. The cold front will then traverse the state Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, exiting to our SE by Wednesday afternoon. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances starting Tuesday with the warmer/moist unstable flow ahead of the front, peaking in coverage Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, then tapering off Wednesday afternoon/evening. Post frontal conditions will likely not support thunder, especially as we head into the overnight and a much more stable airmass quickly moves in, so nixed any thunder mention as of 0Z Thursday. Precip chances should taper off throughout the overnight. High pressure and northerly flow take hold for the rest of the week. With troughing in place aloft, the northerly flow will be fairly deep, and promote cooler than normal temperatures despite sunny conditions. Highs Wednesday through Friday will be in the upper 70s to around 80 with low humidity. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017 An upper level trough is swinging across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. The lack of better moisture will lead to overall lack of coverage for showers this afternoon and continued to keep any mention out of the SYM TAF. Otherwise VFR conditions will be the story, with a few afternoon CU at around 5 kft. We will see mostly clear skies tonight and this will aid in fog development especially in the deeper valleys. That said, did opt to go with the MVFR fog toward 5Z at LOZ/SME and 8Z at SYM. Winds will continue to remain light through the TAF period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...DJ

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