Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 152030 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 330 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 329 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017 Quiet weather has settled over the area. Cold air advection is ongoing as a surface ridge builds in from the west. The air mass is dry enough that low level moisture has already eroded and left mainly clear skies behind. The clear skies will last into tonight, but will be interrupted over the northeast part of the area. A jet streak rotating around a large northeastern CONUS trough/upper low will bring an increase in clouds late tonight, and lasting into Thursday morning. Models do not indicate any precip with it locally, just a slight increase in upslope precip further to our northeast. This feature departs on Thursday, and clouds should be on the decrease in the afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure ridging will slip away to our east on Thursday. This results in the return of warm air advection, which subsequently will support ridge/valley temperature differences on Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 329 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017 The highlight of the long term portion of the forecast is unseasonable warmth. In fact temperatures are forecast to average close to 15 degrees above normal for the Friday through Wednesday period. This will continue to help boost our 2016-2017 average winter time temperature, and with above normal temperatures expected to prevail through the end of February it is possible both Jackson and London may experience their warmest December to February periods on record. Average temperature for December 1, 2016 to February 14, 2017 has been 41.2 at Jackson and 41.1 at London. The warmest December to February on record is 41.6 at Jackson in 2011-2012, and 41.5 at London in 1991-1992. Records at Jackson date back to 1981 and at London to 1954. The forecast period begins with upper level ridging extending from the southeast U.S. through the western Great Lakes. An upper level low will move northeast from Texas and weaken as it moves through the TN and OH valleys this weekend. There is good model agreement on this scenario. This will result in a chance of rain mainly across the southern and central parts of the area from Saturday into Sunday Morning. As we move into next week upper level ridging from the Gulf of Mexico into the Great Lakes will once again be the dominant feature. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the period with maximum temperatures around 70 Monday afternoon, or 20-25 degrees above normal. Another upper low which will be over northern Mexico at the start of the week will drift east northeast through midweek while a weak short wave trough moves through the northern stream helping to damp out the high amplitude ridging. As to be expected there is less model agreement with the evolution of the overall upper air pattern next week but at this point it appears that rain chances will return Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday with mild temperatures continuing.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017 MVFR ceilings lingered near the TN and VA borders at TAF issuance. These ceilings will rise and break up early this afternoon, and VFR conditions will then prevail area wide through the end of the period. Northwest winds gusting around 15 mph will diminish toward evening, and then remain light through the end of the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...HAL

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