Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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201 FXUS63 KJKL 210801 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 401 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 401 AM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017 Available shortly... .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 401 AM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017 Fairly meridional pattern setting up through the long term period that will lead to multiple chances of precip. The period does begin with high pressure east of the region along the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night. There will be a period where decoupling and radiational cooling can occur early on before some mid to high clouds stream into the region. After this high pushes east as an upper level ridge will build across the region. This ridging the return flow around the surface high will put us securely in the warm sector by Thursday. This will lead spring like temperatures through most of the period. Then we focus attention on vertically stacked system ejecting out of the Front Range Friday and moving into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday into Sunday. There remains some timing differences and therefore kept close to the blended guidance. However did opt to cap POPs at likely given the timing uncertainty at this point. Also in terms of storms it does look like we get cutoff from better instability by convection along and near the Gulf coast. This seems reasonable given this lines up well with SPC severe probability climatology for this time of year. Overall looks like QPE of around 0.75 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday night. There could be a few showers Monday wrapping around surface low, but ridging will build east ahead of next upper level trough.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017 A cold front continues to sag south tonight and ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range behind it form north to south, at least briefly, during the first 6 hours of the period. Convection is also possible along or south of a JKL to SJS line with thunder also possible. The MVFR may linger in the north through around 18Z though surface heating and mixing should lead to an improvement to VFR in the south during the 12Z to 18Z period. As high pressure builds into the area after 18Z improvement to VFR in all locations should occur by 22Z. VFR should then prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds will average 10KT or less through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JP

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