Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261200 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY COVER AND WX GRIDS FOR THE FOG. DID ALSO TWEAK THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY STRETCHED BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS PLEASANT AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WHERE A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS SET UP. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTED TO GET MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS NIGHT...HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY A PESKY LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET PARKED OVER MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLOUD PATCH IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A BLANKETING EFFECT FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS DISRUPTION MAY ALSO HINDER THE FORMATION OF FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SOME ALONG THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. AS IT STANDS...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOW 60S ON THE RIDGES TO A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER 50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW HINTS OF FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE OBS AND WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. LOW HEIGHTS...WEAK RIPPLES...AND BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE BY TODAY... THOUGH...WITH SOME OF ITS CORE ENERGY BRUSHING PAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS. EAST KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT TASTE OF THE BEST FALL WEATHER HAS TO OFFER. PLEASANT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S ARE AGAIN ON THE DOCKET FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY DRAW BACK MAY BE THE PREVALENCE OF MID RANGE CLOUDS SLIPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA FROM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL ONE WITH LESS CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE/S DESCENT. AS SUCH...RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND TRAVERSES THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND MOVES NWD...GETTING INGESTED INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...ULTIMATELY STRENGTHENING THE TROUGH. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THIS SITUATION EVOLVES...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO MODELS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AND DRY DAY BEFORE MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN JUST BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT THEN GRADUALLY WARM AND RETURN BACK TO THE MID 80S BY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THOUGH ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EVEN ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SATURATED BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST SHOT BEING KSME. FOR THIS...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF

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