Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261942 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 DIURNAL LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS NEW CU DEVELOPING OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. HAVE BLENDED MID MORNING OBS INTO THE LATE DAY FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT OBS DATA...AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PERIOD STARTED...ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF PRECIP CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY EXITS TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH THE PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IFR IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY INCLUSION IN TAFS ON WEDNESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL

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