Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 010630 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT MAINLY TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE TO THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 OVERALL THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. THE ONLY TWEAKS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE THE INGEST OF OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIPS SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GREIF

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