Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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142 FXUS63 KJKL 232110 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 510 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 An upper level low continues to deepen as it pushes across the Tennessee valley and into the Deep South this afternoon. It will be slow to progress eastward however as it remains near steady strength, slowly traversing the Deep South through the day Monday, before finally pushing off the South Carolina coast into the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday morning, then proceeding to ride up the Mid Atlantic Coast through the day Tuesday. It will continue to ride up the coastline well into the extended period. Currently, eastern KY is situated on the NE side of the upper level low, with abundant southerly flow in place in the upper levels. However the surface low is somewhat displaced from the upper level low, currently moving SE across Georgia. This is keeping llvl flow out of the east which will persist through tomorrow. This shift in winds is keeping instability out of the region, and temperatures unseasonably cool. However, abundant moisture continues to wrap around this system, impacting much of Kentucky and points southward. Rain showers have been persistent throughout the day, and will continue into the overnight hours, before the surface low finally pulls far enough to the southeast to push best moisture out of the state by Monday. That being said, enough moisture will linger to keep cloud cover across the region. Can`t rule out a few isolated showers during peak heating in the afternoon hours according to the latest Hi res ARW and NMM, especially in the eastern portion of the state, so did leave in some slight chance pops through the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer than today but still less than seasonable normals, generally in the mid 60s. The upper level low will push southeast of the state by Monday night, allowing increasing heights across the region heading into Tuesday morning. Drier air will finally start penetrating the region with clouds starting to thin out throughout the night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 The slow moving storm system which brought rain over the weekend will be centered over the Carolinas at the start of the period. Any straggling showers on the northwest edge of the system will be on the way out. Primarily dry weather can be expected for the first couple days of the period as ridging aloft passes over. The next system to affect us will already be over the middle of the CONUS on Wednesday, with the upper level trough making its deepest southward dive over OK/TX by late Wednesday, before lifting out to the northeast. The cold front trailing from the associated surface low is expected to reach our area on Thursday. Models are not gung- ho on precip with it, but do show generalized light amounts. Have carried mostly chance POPs for Thursday, in line with MOS. The GFS makes a cleaner fropa than the ECMWF, and hence has at least a day of dry weather to follow. The ECMWF is faster with a potential return of precip. Have split the difference and continued slight chance and chance POPs for Thursday night into Friday night. During the weekend an upper level ridge builds over the southeast CONUS and brings warmer temps, but tends to subdue convection. Models show some light precip developing on Sunday over/near the Appalachians during the heat of the day. If anything occurs, chances are it would be localized, and only 20-30% POPs were used. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 Rain, heavy at times, continues across much of southeast KY, especially the southern and far eastern portions, affecting all of the TAF sites in some way. A bit low confidence on how things will play out into the overnight as far as visibilities and ceilings are concerned, with rain expected to persist through the first part of the night, and fog likely to develop, continuing even after the rain through the remainder of the overnight. Model for all TAF sites varies considerably, but generally expecting IFR with some occasional LIFR. KSYM has generally remained just north of the biggest impacts, so expect generally MVFR conditions to persist here throughout the overnight. Rain will continue to taper off across the region with improving conditions into MVFR through the day tomorrow. Once again, exact timing is still uncertain. Winds will generally remain from the NE to E through the period, 10 knots or less. Although guidance is pointing at some gusty conditions throughout the overnight at KLOZ and KSME, with gusts up to 20 knots possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ079-080- 083>088-110-113-115>118-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JMW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.