Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 152128 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 528 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 528 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2017 Updated the near term forecast to make sure it was on track with the current conditions. Also updated the fog forecast for overnight based on the latest forecasted temps, dew points, and winds from the afternoon forecast package. This included increasing coverage of fog across much of eastern Kentucky, adding some widespread fog to the deeper valleys, and including the mention of dense in the valleys as well. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was also sent out to reflect these changes.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 301 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and much warmer to eastern Kentucky through the weekend. Highs on Saturday should top out in the lower 80s across the area. Low temperatures the next two nights will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The weather tonight through early tomorrow morning will once again feature areas of dense fog. Valley locations and locations near bodies of water will be particularly prone to dense fog. Otherwise, we can expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds across eastern Kentucky. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2017 The models remain in good agreement aloft through at least the first part of the extended portion of the forecast. The pattern will reflect troughing through the northwest third of the nation with ridging over the Southeast. Kentucky will be shielded from much changeable weather initially as heights will build through the start of the new work week before decreasing a bit Monday night into Tuesday morning when tropical system Jose gets close enough to the East Coast to start impacting the westerlies and nudging the ridge down locally. With this, some weak energy may make it into the Ohio Valley while a significant short wave trough passes well north of the Great Lakes. Heights will stay rather flat for Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week as Jose moves past New England but there is enough uncertainty here to exercise caution. With the model agreement early and uncertainty late the blend will serve as a reasonable starting point. Sensible weather will feature a warm and mostly dry end to astronomical summer as weak high pressure holds over the area for much of the period. There will probably be some intrusion on Monday from a dissipating cold front that could bring more clouds to eastern Kentucky and possibly a few showers for our northwest parts. A better chance of showers along with some thunderstorms will occur from Wednesday through Friday and be mainly diurnally driven as moisture returns from the southwest and the sfc high weakens further. Have made some typical terrain based adjustments to the grids most nights during the extended. Also, enhanced the diurnal nature of the PoPs late in the extended. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2017 Dense fog will be lifting between 14 and 15z at the TAF sites, with MVFR ceilings hanging on through 18z. A scattered to broken cumulus deck between 4 and 5k feet agl will then remain in place the rest of this afternoon. These clouds will diminish this evening, with another round of dense likely developing across most locations between 06 and 12z. Winds will average less than 5 kts through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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