Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 152003 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 303 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 303 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 A cold front over the northern Ohio river valley will slowly push southward into tonight with a passage across eastern Kentucky late Friday morning through the afternoon. The gradient has tightened up to the south of this front with gusty southwest winds continuing this afternoon. While winds have decreased ever so slightly from earlier readings, still opting to continue with the lake wind advisory through the evening as wind could pick back up as the front approaches. Rain is expected to spread in from the north along the front after 05z tonight, with a few isolated or scattered showers possibility developing out ahead of this more widespread activity. The widespread rain will push on through late tonight through Friday morning before slowly exiting from the north to south Friday afternoon. Rain chances a certainty, so will maintain the high rain chances. In fact, upwards of an inch of rainfall could be seen along and north of I-64 with that area located in an area of better forcing with the shortwave energy aloft. Rainfall amounts will then trail off as the front pushes south and shortwave energy departs by Friday morning. Rainfall amounts in the south may struggle to reach a half an inch. With this said, outside of some ponding on roadways, only some minor bumps on area creeks and streams are expected, so no plans for a flood watch at this time. Temperatures will take a quick tumble Friday afternoon as cold advection kicks in behind the cold front. Friday night is shaping up to be dry as the front exits off to the south and colder air briefly returns for the overnight period. The cold advection could push our low temperatures down into the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 303 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Long term discussion will be issued shortly.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018 Strong southwest winds will be the main aviation concern into tonight with wind gusts up to 30 knots expected. MVFR cigs will also continue through the afternoon before lower to near IFR late tonight as a cold front pushes through tonight. Widespread rain is expected with the front tonight as well, which will generate some fog concerns by dawn on Friday. The rain will likely persist through the end of the TAF forecast period along with the lower ceilings. Finally a wind shift to the northwest will be seen late tonight as the front pushes through. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for KYZ051-052- 060-079-080-083>085-106. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.