Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 202047 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 347 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1259 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 Temps were running slightly warmer than the forecast temperature curve, and with clouds breaking, have raised max temps a couple degrees for this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 949 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 Aside from a few sprinkles in some places, it appears the precip is finished, and the POP has been reduced to below 20% for the remainder of today. There are also some breaks in the clouds, and the sky cover for today into tonight has been updated based on latest obs and model forecasts. Otherwise, have only blended mid-morning obs into the afternoon forecast. UPDATE Issued at 745 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 Freshened up the grids to reflect the back edge of the rain showers and lower PoPs through the rest of the day. Also touched up the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. A new set of zones were issued, as well. && .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 08z sfc analysis shows a healthy area of low pressure moving through the Mid Mississippi Valley. From this, a warm front is lifting into eastern Kentucky with a band of moderate rain showers pushing across the CWA ATTM. Most locations will measure from this early this morning with an average of a quarter to half an inch of rain common through dawn. Another very mild night is underway for this time of year with readings not far from 50 degrees and dewpoints similar. Aside from in the band of heavier showers, winds are generally light and from the south to southeast across the area early this morning. The models are in good agreement aloft through the bulk of the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a lead trough pivoting through the Great Plains/Midwest and sending the core of its energy through Kentucky early this morning. Heights will then rebound over the CWA today as the next mid level low grinds into the Central Plains. This will resume our bout of deep level southwesterly flow along with ample bits of energy riding through the region. The model spread with these key features does expand late in the period, but the general pattern is pretty well set continuing the southwest flow to 00z Sunday and beyond. Accordingly, have favored a general model blend with a hedge toward the latest HRRR in the near term. Sensible weather will feature the bulk of the pcpn with this latest wave passing through by dawn for most places - running out ahead of the lifting warm front. In the wake of this, some lingering showers will remain behind this morning and fade out by afternoon as the trend favors drying through the rest of the day but also continued warm conditions. For tonight, do anticipate a ridge to valley temperature split opening up along with patchy valley fog developing. The next wave of pcpn then moves into the area from the southwest on Saturday afternoon with another quarter to half inch of rainfall possible through evening - while this unusual winter warmth continues unabated. Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for most elements through the short term portion of the forecast. Did make some terrain based adjustments for lows tonight given the pattern favorable for an inversion and temp splits. Also, adjusted PoPs to better time the passage of the bulk of the showers this morning. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 347 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 The extended forecast period begins on Sunday with a continued active pattern in place across the CONUS. On Sunday, a strong upper low crosses into the lower MS valley as it travels along the Gulf Coast before lifting NE into the Appalachians. Current track takes the heaviest precip along the spine of the Appalachians and into the headwaters of eastern Kentucky. Models have been pretty consistent on this track for the past few runs. In fact, as this feature develops and lifts north, instability will still be present continuing to support convection, mainly slight chance, through the day on Sunday. As this feature exits Tuesday morning and colder air filters in behind it, some of the exiting showers will change to a rain and snow mix Tuesday morning on top of the higher elevations but with very little accumulation expected. Heading into midweek next week, the next wave tracks across the central Plains and into the Midwest bringing a round of light showers into eastern Kentucky. Both the GFS and Euro agree with a drying trend to this feature as QPF amounts will likely be less than a tenth of rainfall for Wednesday and Wednesday night. However, following this feature will be a more seasonal airmass filtering into the area by Thursday and Friday. This will lead to a return of northwest flow and a period of snow showers possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Overall, a trend to more normal temperatures is expected towards the end of next week if not cooler than normal.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions existed at TAF issuance, but conditions were showing an overall improvement. Restrictions were due to ceilings. From late afternoon on, VFR is expected to last well into the night. Some locations are expecting ceilings to again drop to MVFR for a time Saturday morning, but confidence is not high in this scenario. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...HAL

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