Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210017 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 717 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 717 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 Cirrus across the higher terrain has mostly exited the Lake Cumberland region, but more will be on the approach later tonight. Prior to then, will have to monitor valley temperatures dropping off. Still expecting valleys in the Lake Cumberland region and Bluegrass to mix out later tonight as south/southwest winds increase out ahead of the eastern flank of a surface trough currently entering western Kentucky. Eastern valleys will keep cooler temperatures locked in place through later tonight or potentially early Tuesday morning with later arrival of the increasing pressure gradient. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 Mid/upper level pattern amplifies through the short term as energy drops southeastward out of western Canada. This will result in a deepening trough dropping into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. At the surface high pressure shifts off to the east as a cold front moves into the lower Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon. At present models keep all shower activity to the north of our forecast area with only some additional cloud cover and a wind shift to announce the passage of the frontal boundary. Winds will increase ahead of the frontal system Tuesday to between 10 and 15 mph. Higher gusts to around 25 mph should be expected as well. Otherwise the short term is pretty much a temp forecast. Looking for one more night of cold air in our eastern valley locations. Gradient winds will be increasing tonight and all signs point to our western valleys mixing out through the overnight. Consequently and with support from guidance went warmer in the west. Highs Tuesday will depend on the amount of cloud cover we realize. But the heart of our CWA and points eastward may manage to tweak out a high temperature of around 60. Unfortunately winds will make it seem a little cooler than that. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 238 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 From Wednesday through next Monday there is good model agreement with the overall upper air pattern which will feature a mean trough in the eastern U.S. and ridging in the west. This will result in overall below normal temperatures for eastern KY, and with limited moisture available dry weather will continue to prevail. The long term portion of the forecast begins with colder air once again filtering into the area in the wake of a cold front. Surface high pressure will also be building into the area, with dry but chilly weather for Wednesday and Thanksgiving. As the high shifts to the east on Friday, warmer air will begin making its way into our area in advance of the next cold front. Moisture will be limited with this front, but there will be a slight chance of a few showers in the far the northern part of the forecast area Friday night or early Saturday. After the frontal passage Saturday, colder air will spread back across the area for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 717 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Rounds of cirrus will be supplemented by a few low clouds across far eastern and southeastern Kentucky Tuesday, but any real chance for lower ceilings will stay east/southeast of JKL/SJS. Southerly winds will increase overnight and veer southwesterly Tuesday morning, becoming sustained near 10-15 knots with gusts approaching 20 knots at times through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front set to arrive Tuesday evening/early night. Prior to this increase in near-surface winds, feel increasing winds within the lowest 1500-2000 feet tonight warrant a mention of low-level wind shear for SYM. Will have to monitor this potential farther south and east with the 06Z TAF package. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.