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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 160023
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
823 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CU IS
DISSIPATING ATTM...BUT ENOUGH STILL EXISTS WITH SOME PATCHY AC AND CI
TO KEEP THE PC EVENING WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE EAST...AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLL IN OUR WEATHER WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE THE ROLL THAT THE LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI WILL PLAY ON OUR WEATHER. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL PUSH FIRST NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. MODELS APPEAR TO ADVERTISE REGENERATION OF CONVECTION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY WHICH THEN PUSHES EAST...SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY...APPARENTLY FROM THE INTERACTION OF A RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND
DOWN SHEAR SIDE OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT
AS ADVERTISED THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
PUSH THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ATTM AREAS MOST LIKELY
TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FORREST. BUT ITS STILL A BIT EARLY TO KNOW
FOR SURE WHICH MAKES MUCH OF THIS JUST SPECULATION. FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST HOURLY OBS. NO UPDATE TO THE ZONES FOR
NOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY TO THE EAST COAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST IN THE MEAN FLOW. ONE OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF KY TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SAG INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING A SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
IL...IN AND OH. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD PRESENT DUE TO CONVECTION THAT OCCURS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT. HOWEVER IF ENOUGH HEATING IS REALIZED STEEP WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE WIND...ALTHOUGH HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
WILL GO WITH 40 TO 50 PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES
REVERSED FROM SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
OVERNIGHT. DO EXPECT ANY ONGOING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND A RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE MODELS START OFF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE WEST COAST...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WA BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTER TENDS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP THAT TEND
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME -6 LIFTED
INDEX VALUES WITH ALMOST 3000 JOULES OF CAPE. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE
IS THAT MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY WARM AND AS A RESULT THE TOTAL TOTALS
ARE ONLY AROUND 45 TO 47. THE WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEEK AS WELL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SET UP...THERE MAY BE A SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER ONLY A STORM OR TWO MAY GET UP TO THE SEVERE
CATEGORY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THERE SHOULD
BE NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH THEN START WARMING UP EVERY DAY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE EAST...AWAY FROM
THE AREA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLL IN OUR WEATHER WITH
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
MISSOURI. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL PUSH FIRST NORTHEAST AND THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. RAIN COOL
AREAS FROM THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS APPEAR TO
ADVERTISE REGENERATION OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY WHICH
THEN MOVES EAST...SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD THIS PLAY OUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT CONVECTION WILL CLIP PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH EXPECTED MOVEMENT...AFFECTS OF ANY NEW
CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR KJKL MORE SO THAN KLOZ AND KSME.
THEREFORE INCLUDED A VCSH REMARK FOR KJKL AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT PICKUP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AT ABOUT 10 KTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...RAY