Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161835 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON KEEPING IN THE SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS A BIT LONGER. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO TENNESSEE AND ALLOW A COOL AND DRIER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG COMPLETE THE GLOOMY PICTURE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE AREA RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH...THOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A SLOW PROCESS WITH ANY LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LIMITED ANY CLEARING. ALSO KEPT A REALLY SMALL DIURNAL CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED PRIMARILY FOR POPS AND WX WHILE THE T/TD WHERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS... TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSED ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 MAIN ACTION THIS MORNING REMAINS CENTERED AROUND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THE DRIZZLE THREAT WILL ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TODAY...AND WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY...GOING TO GO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING THINGS OUT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. GOING TO ADD A MENTION INTO THE HWO FOR THE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WEDNESDAY...SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN...HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 70 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER A CHILLY START WHERE VALLEYS MAY START THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND OFF THE WEST COAST. THESE FEATURES GENERALLY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING SETTING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY...AND LIKELY ECLIPSING NORMALS BY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY MODIFICATION WITH THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM FORTHCOMING FROM THE MODELS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. RIGHT NOW...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE BEYOND THAT DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MANY OF THE TAF SITES EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE DAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ANY CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE FLEETING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING STRATUS AND DENSE FOG TO MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE BROUGHT ALL THE SITES DOWN FOR THIS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GREIF

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