Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210751 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Early this morning, mid and upper level ridging were centered across the Western CONUS with another area of ridging from the Gulf of Mexico across the Bahamas and into portions of the Atlantic. In between, a mid level trough axis extended south into the Great Lakes and MS Valley from a closed low over the Hudson Bay Region. At the surface, low pressure was centered over Ontario and associated with a shortwave moving through this trough across the Great Lakes. A somewhat wavy cold front extended south through the Eastern Great Lakes and then southwest into the Lower OH Valley Region and on into the Southern Plains. A couple of shortwaves preceding the trough axis are also working through the OH Valley Region. These are leading to bands or areas of showers moving through the OH Valley region. Showers and possibly even a stray thunderstorm or two will remain possible until the cold front and mid level trough axis move across the area from late this morning into the afternoon. The shower activity may have an additional peak toward dawn or through the morning hours as the final wave moves east. Activity should then from northwest to southeast as the front moves into the area and the mid level trough axis nears. Much of the guidance has some enhancement to the showers around or after sunrise as they move across Eastern KY and into the Appalachian region with QPF picking up a bit with the potential for at least another quarter of an inch during the morning in most locations. The persistent cloud cover and showers followed by clearing and drier air working into the area from the northwest from midday into the early evening hours should lead to a somewhat non diurnal trend with highs late in the afternoon or early evening. Highs should average a bit warmer across the west and northwest and a few degrees cooler on average in the southeast where clouds and showers will suppress temperatures a bit. Mid level height rises are expected late this afternoon and tonight and continuing into Monday behind the trough axis. This will lead to rain free weather. Corresponding surface high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley Region ushering a much drier airmass than what has been experienced over the past 6 or 7 weeks or so. Lows tonight should reach the mid to upper 50s. In fact, the forecast low at JKL for tonight of 58 would be the coldest reading since June 9th. Some valley locations did drop below 60 for min T late in June or early July and the forecast of 57 at London would be the coldest reading there since Jun 30th. With temperatures being suppressed in many locations today after the recent wet weather fog will become a concern tonight, especially in the southeastern valleys. At this time opted for patchy dense fog there and general areas of fog elsewhere. Highs on Monday should average a refreshing 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Dewpoints in the 50s will make it fell more like early September. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The long term period will feature more dry days than wet with a surface high pressure and mild air mass over the area. At the beginning of the period, the surface high pressure will slide to the east. Mid level heights will then rise through mid week as a mid and upper level ridge extends its influence northeastward. Low level flow will turn out of the south and southwest, resulting in gradually warming temperatures and dew points as deeper layer moisture increases. As a cold frontal boundary approaches the area Thursday, there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms during peak heating. On Friday. the cold front is progged to pass through the area, evident with a windshift to the north. However, the best upper level forcing with this front stays well off to our north due to ridging in place. Therefore, decided to only go with chance pops with this frontal passage. Surface high pressure builds back into the region for the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs and or vis is currently reported across the region. The lowest CIGS are generally ahead of an area of showers moving from Central into Eastern KY. Mainly MVFR with some IFR on the ridges should prevail in these. Some lowering to somewhat more widespread IFR for a couple of hours in advance of and near the front will be possible until drier air advects in in the lower levels. 12Z to 18Z, improvements through MVFR and into VFR should occur in the northwest part of the area including SYM. Elsewhere, after 16Z, CIGS should be improving through MVFR with VFR in all areas by 22Z to 23Z. Southwest winds less than 10KT will become more W and NW behind the front, starting first in the NW by 10Z to 12Z and then across the remainder of the area through 19Z. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JP

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