Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281447 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW ADJUSTEMTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UNSEASONABLE COOL START THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE W TO NW FLOW HAS SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE QUITE WELL WHEN COMPARING THIS WITH THE UA DATA. THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. GIVEN THIS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE NICE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND MAY BE BETTER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE DID KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED AT THIS POINT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LIFTING FEATURES AND INSTABILITY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH MORE APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/SFC DETAILS AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES. MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DETAILS AND THEREFORE HOW SENSIBLE WEATHER PLAYS OUT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS/GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL DID ALLOW FOR LOWER POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MCS ACTIVITY DURING A WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME BUT HAVE QUESTIONS ON MODELS ABILITY TO DETERMINE EXACT TRACKS OF THESE TYPES SYSTEMS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTED JKL...SYM...AND SJS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SEEN AT SME THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENED ACROSS SITE. EXPECTING FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z AT SME WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. OTHER SITES MAY SEE A PASSING HIGH CLOUD TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT THIS WOULD AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WANE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/RAY AVIATION...DJ

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