Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280707 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 TONIGHT. THESE HAVE LIKELY BEEN RELATED TO SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO FIRING UP ALONG A NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN AND DIE OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUITE THE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH 3 HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 PLUS INCHES IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE OVERALL CONVECTION AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 CONTINUING TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR AND IR SAT. ALSO MANY OF THE CONVECTIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE DO SHOW THAT AS WE GOING INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG PRODUCTION DO WE SEE...DO THINK VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT SAW RAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ELEVATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW POP UP STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THEY WILL REMAIN BRIEF. MAIN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND THE COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT LIMITED. WITH THAT SAID...THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT FRONT WITH A GOOD CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THUS...PLAN TO GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON THE POPS AS WE ARE MORE LIKELY SEE SOMETHING EVEN IF IT IS MORE SPORADIC. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AND EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER SHOULD ABOUND FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL BE KNOCKED BACK AS WELL...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL

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