Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 260800 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z. AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110- 113-115-117>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.