Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220229 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1029 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1029 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 The valleys have dropped off into the low to mid 60s as of 10 pm. These values are similar compared to last night at that time. The forecast is on track, so mainly adjusted the diurnal drop off over the next few hours to incorporate the latest trends in observations. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 The surface high pressure center is a bit further east into New England than it was 24 hours ago. Dry air mixed down late this afternoon, and despite highs in the mid to upper 80s across eastern Kentucky, think that valley minimum temperatures will still mainly be below the 60 degree mark once again, especially since fog will form later and likely be more restricted to the river valleys. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to control the weather across eastern Kentucky, with very warm sunny days and mild nights. As has been the case recently, we do expect some locally dense fog in the river valleys the next two nights, especially in the far east and southeast part of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the weekend. Models indicate a backdoor cold front will drop into the Ohio Valley late in the weekend, but this stays north of our area. In fact, weak high pressure in place at the surface will provide for plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal each day through Sunday, and we bumped up highs each day a few degrees above the Super Blend guidance with dry ground, relatively low humidity and lots of sunshine each day. Low humidity will allow overnight lows to fall back into the low 60s for most locations each night. Beyond Sunday, forecaster confidence decreases quite a bit as models indicate the development of a blocking pattern and continue to show quite a bit of timing differences with the passage of a cold front. If the 21/12Z ECMWF were to pan out, we wouldn`t see any rain until Wednesday. However, the 21/12Z GFS solution would bring a prolonged rain event from Monday night through at least Wednesday. With such differences in the models, the Super Blend offered a great compromise, offering low PoPs Monday night through Wednesday with decreasing temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure centered across New England will provide for mainly VFR conditions across eastern Kentucky. Some IFR or worse fog is expected to be prevalent once again between 06 and 13z, but this should be more restricted to the deeper river valleys, and will not include any visibility restrictions at the TAF sites at this time. Winds will continue to average around 5 kts or less, mainly out of the east and northeast. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.