Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231239 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 739 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 739 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS FORECAST...AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LAID OUT FROM TX TO IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL LIFT OUT TO THE ENE AND WILL BE OUR MAIN FACTOR DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN TN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY. A DRY SLOT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL SURGE NE AND BRING A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP OVER SE KY THIS EVENING...BEFORE ONE MORE ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS DRYING ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LOSS OF ICE PRODUCTION IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMIT ANY SNOW TO THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTING PRECIP TYPE IN THE FORM OF RAIN VS. SNOW. THE WARM LAYER WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE...SO FZRA AND SLEET ARE NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLDER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD WORK TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION. A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS MORE LIKELY FOR A TIME BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES FOR ACCUMULATION...THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON RIDGES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 PERIOD WILL BEGIN WILL LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF THE REGION WELL NORTH NEAR THE MAINE COAST. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE IN THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION PRIMARILY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THINKING MUCH OF THIS WILL START IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SNOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND THESE LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THAT BEST QPF DOES MOVE EAST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. UNDER NW FLOW AND LEFT OVER ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER. THEN WE SEE YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE RETURNING TO GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 739 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT LAST...AS A DETERIORATION TO IFR IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH. IT WILL INITIALLY BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP...IT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TO NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT...AND CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP ALONG AN NW OF A LINE FROM KSME TO KSYM BEFORE DAWN...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR IN THOSE AREAS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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