Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240556 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 156 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 156 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 Surface analysis shows the high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast this overnight hour. GOES 16 IR SAT fog channel does indicate some mid to high clouds streaming across the region mainly in the far east this hour. This is leading to quite the complicated temperature curve and did opt to rise temperatures slightly due to this. There are isolated showers moving across portions of northern KY this hour and did opt to add sprinkles north of the I-64 corridor. Not confident that these will stick together, but could not completely deny the HRRR/RAP both hinting at something passing across that portion of the area. Otherwise only minor adjustments needed in the grids. UPDATE Issued at 1033 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 Clouds have translated to the east, but have generally thinned through this evening. The latest model data suggests less of a resurgence towards dawn, so will allow for a more modest uptick late, with partially clearing skies through the overnight. Valleys have decoupled in the east, with the cooler spots reporting in the mid to upper 40s. Mid 30s still looks good for a lower end to the more sheltered places, but may actually bump up some of the individual sites further west based on the latest trends in observations. Updates will be sent shortly. UPDATE Issued at 655 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 Mainly freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover through early this evening. So far, valley locations are staying mixed, with forecast values running cooler than observed. This should change in the next hour, as drier air in place and light southerly winds will allow for a typical steep valley drop off through 10 pm. Light returns on radar are becoming more sparse with time, and sky cover has thinned somewhat while gradually shifting east. Have allowed for a slower progression of thicker clouds to the east, given these trends. Forecast lows in the mid 30s for the cooler sites look reasonable thus far, and will wait until the drop off commences before making any adjustments, if needed. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 317 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 The surface high continues to shift off shore of the mid Atlantic states with southerly return flow kicking into gear across Kentucky. A mid level warm front is working eastward across central Kentucky. A band of precipitation associated with this front had been working east as well. However, strong low level dry air remains in place across central and eastern Kentucky as south to southeast flow has kept the dry air in place today. This will continue to erode the precipitation as it moves eastward this evening. Hi-res models continue to support this eroding band of rain scenario. A few sprinkles could be seen in Wayne county, but not likely to see much elsewhere. We will see a gradual increase in cloud cover this evening and overnight as the mid level clouds associated with the front push east. Regardless of the cloud cover, should still see a modest ridge/valley split tonight given the dry air over the area. This will allow lows in the eastern valleys to dip into the mid to upper 30s. Ridges and locations farther west will stay in the 40s tonight. With the 30s in the east, some frost will be possible. By tomorrow, warm front will be off to the north with southerly winds continuing to pump in mild air. This will send highs to around 70 by the afternoon. Cloud cover is still a bit in question as we will be solidly in the warm sector behind the warm front, so we may see a bit more sunshine in the blended model solution would otherwise indicate. Will still see a bit of a ridge/valley split Friday night, but may be more in the extreme valleys as the gradient will continue to increase. Overall, it should be a milder night with lows in the 40s (extreme valleys) and 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 335 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 The extended forecast period begins on Saturday with a active pattern in place as a vigorous upper level closed low tracks under ridging positioned over the upper Great Lakes across the mid MS River Valley and into KY. Retreating ridging over the southeast CONUS will hold off approach of measurable precip until late Saturday and possibly into Saturday night. Marginal instability in place for the approach of the surface cold front will leave a thunder chance on Saturday evening and through the day on Sunday. Models though have been trending towards a bigger surge of southerly moisture with some areas more likely to get up to 0.75 inch. Once again, stout ridging just off the Atlantic coast will impede the exit of this first system as it hangs up a bit keeping precip over eastern Kentucky through Sunday night. By Monday, the active pattern continues as right on the heels of the previous system another wave develops over the central Plains and intensifies over the mid MS River Valley before shifting northeast into the TN and OH Valleys. Moisture in place across the area and a bit better instability in place for Monday evening will mean for a better chance of thunder. As this system hangs up as well, the boundary will slowly push through eastern Kentucky with some forcing lingering into Tuesday afternoon and therefore another chance of thunder with continued moisture in place and above normal temps. By the middle of next week, a brief bout of high pressure shifts back over the region with a break in the precip before the next system will impact the area expected on Thursday. Overall, a more Spring-like extended expected with some wet weather in the forecast as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 A surface high pressure is setup off the Mid Atlantic coast this overnight hour. This combined with the upper level ridging will keep our CIGS VFR despite how complicated the layers may in fact be. This more complicated cloud cover is partly due to some isentropic ascent that will eventually kick in. That said, the strengthening LLJ will leave the overnight period with possible LLWS issues until 14Z. Then by 14Z the winds will kick in and we could see some gusts of 15 knots at SME/LOZ/SYM in the afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...DJ

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