Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250722 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 322 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain on control of the weather through the short term. A mid to upper level ridge is centered over the southeastern CONUS this morning, spreading its influence across Eastern Kentucky. Mid and upper level drying is also apparent in current WV/IR imagery moving across our region. Given the anticyclonic upper level flow, the ongoing convection across the Ohio Valley should stay to our north and east as it rotates around the high this morning. Models hint at some shower activity perhaps grazing our northeastern counties (from the ongoing convection) during the morning hours as well as some terrain-induced showers/storms along the Virginia border in the afternoon. However, with most of the column staying dry, the shower activity shouldn`t amount to much today. The best chance, if any, will be over the high terrain in western Virginia. High pressure becomes centered over Eastern Kentucky late tonight and remains over us through Friday. This will likely keep any shower activity out of the area and have adjusted pops to reflect this. Today and Friday will be muggy and warm with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. During the afternoon hours, heat indices are expected to reach the mid and upper 90s so take precaution if spending time outdoors. Tonight will also be unseasonably warm with lows staying in the low 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 A stout upper level ridge will dominate our weather into early next week. This will keep temperatures much warmer than normal and muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Isolated showers/storms will be possible each day over the weekend into early next week in the warm and humid airmass. It appears the ridge will weaken slightly by the end of the period, possibly allowing a cold front to sag into the region. The front appears very weak in the models so will keep PoPs low and diurnally influenced even during these periods. Models keep any influences from a potential tropical system developing in the Caribbean to our south and east through Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as an upper level ridge holds steady across Kentucky. There may be some valley fog development later this morning. However, with crossover temperatures in the 60s, do not think that much fog will make it into the TAF sites. There is the potential for some brief MVFR fog at either LOZ or SME but decided not to include it at this time given lower confidence. There may also be some isolated showers or thunderstorms in the north and east later this morning but do not expect any activity to affect the TAF sites. Winds will remain variable around 5 knots or less through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JVM

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