Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 121215 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 815 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 815 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE IN PLACES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WILL ALSO BE LOWERING THE HIGHS FOR TODAY...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HANGING IN ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 HE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND AN EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL. STILL SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ARE PRESENT WITH THE GFS SHOWING GENEROUS QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PERTURBATIONS IN BETWEEN THE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES. THOUGH...THIS SEEMS TO JIVE WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. WILL KEEP THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. ONE THEME WITH THE EXTENDED IS THE HIGH CENTER POSITIONED JUST OFF EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND JUST OFF THE COAST...THE APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DOES SEEM TO NEARLY WASHOUT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AFTER THIS FRONT ALSO SEEM TO BE RATHER BENIGN SO ALSO WENT WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BECAUSE OF THIS...POPS WILL BE CHANCE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 815 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 IFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW PASSING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MAY IMPROVE CEILINGS TEMPORARILY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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