Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 182257 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 657 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 657 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 Initial round of convection has largely fizzled over the southern portion of the area, but is still marching across our northern counties. There will probably be a break in activity in the wake of this round, and have updated the grids to try to reflect this. Models are suggesting more development later tonight, emanating from the convection which is over western KY and southern IN early this evening. If this looks like it`s going to materialize for our northern counties, a FFA may need to be issued for that area before the precip arrives.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 354 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 The latest surface map features seasonably deep low pressure across southeastern Ontario, with a cold front aligned to southwest across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then down into the Arklatex region. Aloft, a stout short wave trough is rotating through the Great Lakes regions, within broader troughing across the north central CONUS. Eastern Kentucky remains in the warm sector, with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s, with dew points ranging from the mid 60s to as high as the lower 70s. So far, the mesoscale has been the driving force behind thunderstorm activity through the day. Currently, a complex of storms is aligned from south central Kentucky down into central Tennessee, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms breaking out across central Kentucky as well, with some moisture convergence in the low levels and likely some influence from the outflow from the complex to the south. The models have been highly erratic most of the day with the evolution of storms through this evening across eastern Kentucky. As such, have followed a combination of the higher temporal models as well as radar and mesoscale trends. The best convective coverage this evening will be in the Bluegrass and west of I-75, with less activity expected to the east, where shear and forcing will be weaker. While an isolated strong to severe cell can not be completely ruled out through this evening, any organized severe threat appears to be diminishing. The bigger concern will be the potential for flash flooding as we head into the overnight hours. The cold front will slip further southeast, with plenty of moisture continuing to align ahead of it. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will fill in across the area, some of which will contain torrential rainfall at times. The front will be slow to exit the area on Monday, and with some favorable modest upper level divergence in place aloft, some heavy rainers look to continue across the southeast through the day, before gradually exiting by late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Given the heavy rainfall potential, have hoisted a flash flood watch for late tonight into Monday. High pressure will build in Monday night, with showers ending. Any partial clearing will lead to areas of fog, as winds lighten and plenty of moisture lingers in the low levels. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 354 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 Surface ridging will slide east across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, providing a dry stretch of weather. As the high slides east of the area late Wednesday and Thursday, moisture will gradually start to return the area with an increase in humidity expected. While the area may remained capped on Thursday, we could see a shower try to form along the higher terrain in southeast Kentucky. Lots of uncertainty with how the weather unfolds Friday into next weekend as some tropical moisture could interact with a weather system pushing across the central plains and Ohio river valley. At this point models are all over the place, but in general, are suggesting a bit more active pattern setting up into next weekend. Plan to go with an extended period of chance pops from late Thursday night through the weekend. With the potential for tropical moisture to get absorbed into a potential system next weekend, there could be a period with potentially heavier rainfall. However, will keep it out of the HWO until we see some better model agreement. The heat and humidity will stay with us through the weekend until a cold front makes its way through the area sometime late Sunday or Sunday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 The northern edge of a complex of thunderstorms will approach KSME between 19 and 20z, and KLOZ between 21 and 22z. These will likely weaken somewhat as they move in across the area; however, some temporary MVFR conditions look likely as they move across the area. Elsewhere, mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will threaten through this evening, before a cold front approaches from the northwest, providing more widespread rainfall chances for the overnight hours and into Monday morning. VFR conditions will drop down to MVFR, with some IFR ceilings at times. Precipitation will diminish from northwest to southeast on Monday, with gradually improving ceilings. South southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts, will diminish to around 10 kts by early this evening, before becoming more southwesterly through the rest of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Monday afternoon for KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-107-109-110-112>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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