Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241545 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1145 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1145 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 15z sfc analysis shows a dry and mostly cloud free cold front descending through eastern Kentucky this morning. With this a wind shift to the northwest and north is noted. However, the air mass is fairly similar across this boundary with temperatures in the low to mid 60s ATTM throughout the area while dewpoints are holding in the low to mid 40s. The forecast is on track and only made minor adjustments to the grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 654 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Quite a range in temperatures this morning from the mid 40s up to the mid 50s. With limited fog this morning, sunshine should help to warm things up fairly quickly this morning, allowing for mild daytime conditions despite the cold front dropping in from the north through mid morning. We will see a wind shift to the northwest by late morning into the midday hours. Otherwise, no cloud cover with the front, so no other impacts expected. Drier and cooler air will lag behind the front a bit, so it may take awhile to feel the full effects of the frontal passage. No significant changes planned this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 A dry cold front currently just north of the Ohio river this morning, will work south across the area today. Conditions have remained somewhat mixed overnight with temperatures still holding in the mid 50s in most areas. Some of the eastern valleys have decoupled and fallen back into the 40s. Either way, cold front will lack any cloud cover, so with the sun coming up this morning, we will quickly warm just ahead of the front reaching the mid 60s to around 70 in most places today. With drier and cooler air settling in behind the front tonight, lows will be much cooler with some mid 30s showing up in the deeper valleys of eastern Kentucky. With the dry air lagging behind the front, it looks like conditions should favor more fog formation tonight in the river valleys. Model sounds show a tremendous amount of dry air just off the surface on Tuesday. Model blend continues to handle this dry air very poorly and have undercut all guidance with respect to afternoon/early evening dewpoints. Have dropped most places a good 5 degrees under guidance. The dry air will also lead to highs above guidance. In fact, 850mb temperatures warm a degree or two heading into Tuesday. Right now going to shoot for highs in the mid 60s to around 70, not too far off from today`s temperatures. We could be a degree or two cooler just because we will be starting off the day much cooler. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Surface ridging will be translating eastward across the Appalachians Tuesday night downstream of a shortwave trough pushing from the eastern Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This will induce return flow and subsequent warm air advection through the night. This combined with a bone dry boundary layer will likely put a damper on much in the way if any frost potential for Wednesday morning. Could see some patchy fog in the more sheltered valleys bordering Virginia and West Virginia as return flow will arrive later nearer the axis of the departing surface ridge. The next chance of precipitation will arrive across the Bluegrass region near or after midnight Wednesday into Thursday as the aforementioned trough and an attendant cold front approach the Ohio Valley. Better rainfall chances will occur later in the night into Thursday morning as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico eventually works into eastern Kentucky. Will continue to keep thunder mention out of the forecast as overall instability appears weak, although will have to monitor potential for an elevated storm or two if stronger dynamical cooling can erode a chunk of the low-mid level cap. High pressure will then build back in for the end of the week as high temperatures generally remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s, before an upper level disturbance moves toward lower Ontario and the western Great Lakes. This could bring another round of showers by Friday night into Saturday, while another weak system may try to load up for the second half of the weekend. Despite the passage of these systems and associated cold fronts, a widespread freeze continues to look unlikely before Halloween. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 VFR conditions will continue through Monday night. Steady southwest winds will continue overnight before a windshift to the northwest with a dry frontal passage Monday morning. The northwest winds will subside to light and variable after 23z Monday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.