Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260757 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO THE 40S. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER. CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL. DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. AS WE COOL OFF...WOULD EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO A MIX/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE REALLY DRY OUT IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS TRY TO AT LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH H850 SUB MINUS 10 IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND FROST. RIGHT NOW IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THE HIGH ALIGNS ACROSS THE REGION TO WHERE THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR COOLING WILL BE. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST FOR SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE...EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HERE. THE GFS IS AGAIN QUICKER...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE VERSUS THE ECMWF NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BEING THE BIGGER INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS...DID STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE THE BEST BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z...WITH JUST SOME CU AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL FROM TIME TO TIME. CONVECTION WILL THEN THREATEN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z...WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR. AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP TOWARDS DAWN AND ESPECIALLY BY MID- MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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