Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030410 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1110 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1109 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR TEMPS...BLENDING IN LATEST OBS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. MODELS GENERATE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE OVERLAID BY A WEAK CAP IN MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 WHILE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY...WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO THE LEE SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION TO A MAJOR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IN THE WEATHER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. TO START OUT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E ACROSS KY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PULLING OUT OF EASTERN KY BY LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS IN CONTROL...EXPECT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE 4 CORNER STATES PLAINS WILL MAKE A QUICK SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z...PULLING IN MOIST BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS KY THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z /GENERALLY/ PRECIP WILL MOVE IN STARTING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. WHILE THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF WARMER AIR...MODELED SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO LAG BEHIND IN THE LATEST DATA...CREATING A GOOD SCENARIO FOR FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SORT OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...IT WILL THANKFULLY BE SHORT LIVED AS SURFACE TEMPS QUICKLY REACT AND RISE ABOVE FREEZING JUST AFTER 12Z...CHANGING ALL PRECIP OVER TO JUST RAIN. BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 0Z WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING IN WARM MOIST AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S WITH STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING TUESDAY. AFTER ABOUT 3Z TUESDAY...WE LOSE SOME OF THE BEST LI/S AND SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP SO EXPECT THUNDER POTENTIAL TO DIE OFF AT THIS POINT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT PEGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LAY OUT ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN DWINDLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF THE HEADWATER AREAS IN THE CUMBERLAND AND KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME REMAINING AS THE HEAVY RAINS HIT. SINCE THERE IS CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALLER STREAM AND CREEK FLOODING WILL LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS PEAKING THURSDAY AND LIKELY RUNNING HIGH INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND FOR SOME OF THE MORE DOWNSTREAM POINTS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE HAS BEEN AN EMERGING WINTER WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER AIR MAKING IT IN WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING LINGER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND THEN LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND OF THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE BRIGHTER SIDE...IF THIS FROZEN PRECIPITATION WERE TO COME TO PASS...IT WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL. WE WILL BE EAGERLY AWAITING FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW ALL OF THIS PLAYS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...EVEN POSSIBLY BELOW 0 DEGREES IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NUDGED POPS TOWARDS A 12Z ECMWF/SUPERBLEND BLEND. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION YET AGAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 933 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 VFR PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 09Z...MVFR SHOULD BEGIN TO INVADE FROM SW TO NE...WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTING MVFR BY ABOUT 14Z. IFR WILL ALSO START SHOWING SHOWING UP ON TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL... ALONG WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SOME MEAGER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104- 106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/JVM AVIATION...HAL

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