Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291737 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FALLING FROM SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES PAST. ANY EXISTING SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL COVERAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE MORNING FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS WEEKEND. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH. GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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