Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 052028 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 328 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016 An area of low pressure aloft is forecast to move out of the southern Plains/western Gulf coast region this evening, and will be our primary weather maker through tomorrow night. Most of the latest model data is suggesting that precipitation onset will still be a couple of hours later than the night shift forecast was indicating. The new forecast will reflect a blend of the latest model data with precipitation onset anticipated around 1Z this evening in our far southern counties, or roughly two hours later than previously forecast. Based on the expected temperature profiles, precipitation will be in the form of all rain across eastern Kentucky. The best chance for rain will occur from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. The rain should begin to taper off Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the last rain showers exiting the area between 9 and 10Z Wednesday. Area wide we can expect around an inch of rain from this event. Temperatures are expected to run at or slightly below normal through tonight, with a non diurnal temperature progression tonight. There will likely be a period of time tonight during which temperatures actually begin to increase, as winds also increase and shift more to the south and widespread precipitation sets in. Highs on Tuesday are expected to top out in the 50s, with lows in the 40s tonight and the 30s Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 328 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016 We transition to a much colder weather pattern to end the work week as a deep, but transient, trough digs into the Ohio Valley. Models usher in this colder airmass without much precipitiation. However, we come under the influence of the right entrance region of a stout 150kt upper level jet as the cold front works through Thursday morning and models hint that this could force some light snow and/or rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep PoPs rather low as moisture is limited. Isolated snow showers and flurries will remain possible Thursday night into Friday with strong cold advection wringing out any lingering moisture. Temperatures will likely not rise out of the 20s on Friday. Cold high pressure settles into the region Friday night and this will likely be our coldest night. However, models show the potential for some high clouds to interfere with our radiational cooling. Nonetheless, temps in the teens are a good bet for just about everyone. Models show a fast transition to southwest flow aloft by Saturday night in advance of a shortwave digging into the northern Plains. This will result in increasing clouds and precipitation chances late in the weekend. Timing remains questionable with this system with large differences in the modeling so stayed close to the blended model guidance. However, 60-70 PoPs on Sunday seemed a bit high with the uncertainty involved, so dropped them down into the chance range. Current forecast timing would introduce the threat for a mix of rain and snow at onset late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, but the bulk of the precipitation Sunday into Monday should be rain.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016 Widespread cloud cover will persist across eastern Kentucky through the end of the TAF period. These clouds are associated with both a departed area of low pressure aloft and a second upper level system that will approach from the southwest this evening and tonight. MVFR CIGS are expected through between 5 and 7Z tonight. After that, much lower clouds are forecast to move in, with IFR TO LIFR CIGS of around 500 feet expected. The first rain showers should begin moving across the TN border into eastern KY between 1 and 2Z this evening, with the rain becoming widespread by between 6 and 8Z area wide. SME and LOZ can expect rain to affect their sites around 5Z, JKL by 6Z and SYM and SJS between 8 and 9Z. IFR to MVFR VSBYs will be possible with any rain showers, with the lower VSBY associated with the more intense rain showers we will experience late tonight.These low CIGS are expected to persist through the end of the TAF period once they set in. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR

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