Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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071 FXUS63 KJKL 230309 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1009 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1009 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 Center of the upper low now churning toward Chattanooga with a few lightning strikes north of Knoxville. Will continue to keep isolated thunder mentioned across southeastern Kentucky through midnight, before upper forcing passes east, thus placing eastern Kentucky squarely in the deformation zone. This will bring a transition to more of a stratiform type regime as light to moderate rain continues through the night. Periods of locally heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible across southeast Kentucky. UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 Showers continue to move off to the northwest across the Bluegrass region as a more steady shield of showers approaches far southeastern Kentucky. This will overspread much of eastern Kentucky this evening through tonight and much of Monday. While a few thunderstorms will be possible this evening ahead of the brunt of the lift associated with the potent upper low, progression of this feature off to the east will bring more of a stratiform nature to the rain in the deformation zone overnight. Given the later arrival of rainfall and farther southward displacement of the upper low, have decreased precipitation amounts. Areas across southeast Kentucky still look to see an inch to inch and a half total through Monday with lesser amounts farther west. Therefore not foreseeing any need for flood headlines of any kind. Will continue to highlight isolated heavy rain/minor flooding possibility in the HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 230 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 Current conditions across the area feature a break in the precip as much of the incoming precip has dissipated as it passed through to the north. With this, cloud cover is and will continue to be in abundance and as such, temps have been slow to warm up across the region this afternoon. Due to this, have lowered highs for today a couple of degrees. Heading into this evening and tonight, as expected, the ongoing event along the Gulf Coast has robbed alot of moisture from advecting northward into the eastern Kentucky and central Appalachian region. While some moisture will eventually make it north as the parent low pressure system begins to track up the coast, the lessened rainfall would not be as much of a concern as once thought. Thus, will reintroduce pops into the area again tonight as the low tracks up the coast after 00z. With some lift moving in as well, will keep a slight chance of thunder in the forecast but do not expect is to be very prevalent. While rainfall is not as much as previously expected, will leave the mention of brief heavy rainfall in the HWO for over the head waters as a period of banded precip may still move over eastern Kentucky but residence time will be short as the feature will exit rather quickly. This and the NAM and GFS still hint at a period of banded precip moving over this region. This as well, while WPC keeps the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall marginal risk east of Kentucky, Day 1 and 2 QPF totals still range in the 1.50 to 1.75 inch total. The last of the wrap around moisture will exit eastern Kentucky late Monday night with the bulk of the deep moisture exiting well before cold enough air moving into the region will change the rain over to a rain and snow mix on top of Black Mountain. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal temperatures. The intense storm system currently in the deep south will have progressed to the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning, and its last influence in the form of cloudiness and perhaps a few showers will be pulling out of the JKL forecast area during the day. Ridging at all levels will pass over Tuesday night, with warm air advection beginning before dawn. This will likely lead to ridge/valley differences for lows. An intense low pressure system heading northeast toward the Great Lakes will bring a tightening pressure gradient locally, which could bring rising temperatures by dawn on Wednesday, even in many valleys. One more mild day will occur on Wednesday, ahead of the system`s cold front. That cold front will arrive late Wednesday or Wednesday evening. Only modest moisture return is expected before the front arrives, and little or no precipitation is expected with fropa. Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe for clouds and when it`s cold enough, flurries and snow showers. There will be multiple impulses moving through the flow aloft. Trying to time these at long range is problematic. Have used an extended period of very light precip potential, with some minor peaks when a model blend shows the best agreement for embedded upper level waves passing through the large scale trough. One peak is on Thursday, and another on Sunday. On Thursday, temps will still could be warm enough for rain or rain mixed with snow. However, any precip in the remainder of the period should be snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 While one band of showers comes to an end across the Bluegrass region, another more widespread area of rain will move into southeastern Kentucky while progressing northwestward through this evening and tonight. A slim chance does exist for a lightning strike through this evening, but not expecting near high enough coverage/probability of this to warrant any mention of CB. Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR levels rather quickly this evening/tonight, before in all likelihood becoming LIFR Monday morning. Visibilities will drop to MVFR/IFR levels underneath more moderate to locally heavy rain. Stratus build- down will also help to keep visibilities sub-VFR for a period late tonight into the day on Monday. May see some improvement toward MVFR ceilings by late Monday afternoon, but currently expecting IFR criteria to remain largely in place. Northeast winds will back northwesterly through the night into Monday with speeds increasing to 10-12 knots, while also becoming gusty at times. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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