Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 060015 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW- MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109- 110-112-113-115-117>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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