Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 012021 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 321 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST +5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS. OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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