Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231813 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 213 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 200 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 Continued to update pops and QPF based on latest rainfall trends, with widespread rain expected to continue over a majority of the southern and eastern CWA through much of the day. With ongoing rain in mind, went ahead and extended flash flood watch for the counties along the VA border until 11pm this evening. Kept the remaining counties in the watch expiring at 4pm, although not going to rule out some of these counties may need to be extended further into the afternoon/evening. Based on a few reports of roads closed due to high water, went ahead and issued a flood warning for the SW portion of the CWA as well. Will continue to monitor the rainfall coverage in case further updates are made. Also loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds to make sure the near term forecast was on track with current conditions. All changes have been saved and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 Updated the PoP and Wx grids to reflect the latest radar trends ands also to add in a touch of thunder across the FFW area for this morning. Also, tweaked the near term T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These updated grids have been sent to NDFD and the web servers. The HWO was updated and a fresh set of zones issued.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 320 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 06z sfc analysis shows a deep southern low passing by just to the south of Kentucky. This low is responsible for the series of waves - consisting of showers now - pushing across southern Kentucky this weekend. Currently there is a lull between these waves, even so sprinkles and drizzle are found across much of the CWA this night. Low clouds blanket the southern half of the area while in the far north they have actually cleared out. Winds are from the north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph locking in the colder air. Temperatures this night are running from near 45 degrees - dewpoints in the upper 30s - north to the lower 50s in the far south - dewpoints around 50. The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a developing and closing off low moving into the Tennessee Valley and then continuing south - rolling through the deep south. The models are quite similar with the magnitude, placement, and timing of this low lending a good deal of confidence to their consensus forecast. Accordingly, have favored the CONSShort model blend for most GFE weather elements with special attention to the high resolution components in the short term. Sensible weather will feature a renewed surge of moisture and showers pushing north into the CWA towards dawn and continuing through the bulk of the day. The heaviest showers and higher QPF are anticipated through the areas that remain under a Flash Flood Watch. This may be able to be cleared earlier in the afternoon in the west, but will likely be needed through 4 pm in the eastern part and possibly longer. For now, will hold to the current timing for this headline and pass on to later shifts to watch for a need to extend it later in the east. Otherwise, cloudy, rainy, and cool weather will be the rule today and into the evening for a good portion of the area. The exception may be locations north of Interstate 64 where some sunshine may be seen early this morning and then later filtered through the clouds - but still seasonably cool. On Monday, the sfc low should be far enough east that drier starts to make its way into the area and dry us out from northwest to southeast - allowing temperatures to recover to a bit closer to normal for this time of year. Again started the grids from the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance set through this part of the forecast. Did not make much adjustment to temperatures or dewpoints given the limited diurnal range over the next 36 hours. However, did again beef up PoPs and QPF, from the blend, across the south given the certainty for measurable rain from yet a couple more surges of shower activity during this time. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 An upper level low will continue to meander up the east coast through Tuesday while slowly shifting offshore into the Atlantic. Mid level heights will slowly recover through the period with a warming trend anticipated the the first half of the week. Dry weather now looks like it will hold on through Wednesday evening. The next chance of rain will come late Wednesday night and Thursday as a shortwave trough drives another cold front across the Ohio river valley. The front may be shearing out as it crosses the area, so opted to stay with the lower blended pops as it may not be a widespread rain event for the area. Regardless, a few thunderstorms would be possible. Whats left of the washed out front will lift back to the north as a warm front by weeks end providing another shower and storm chance Friday into Saturday. With the passage of the warm front temperatures will warm dramatically next weekend with highs into the mid to upper 80s. As it stands right now, there does not appear to be any threat of severe weather or flooding with the rain chance on Thursday or late this week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 Rain, heavy at times, continues across much of southeast KY, especially the southern and far eastern portions, affecting all of the TAF sites in some way. A bit low confidence on how things will play out into the overnight as far as visibilities and ceilings are concerned, with rain expected to persist through the first part of the night, and fog likely to develop, continuing even after the rain through the remainder of the overnight. Model for all TAF sites varies considerably, but generally expecting IFR with some occasional LIFR. KSYM has generally remained just north of the biggest impacts, so expect generally MVFR conditions to persist here throughout the overnight. Rain will continue to taper off across the region with improving conditions into MVFR through the day tomorrow. Once again, exact timing is still uncertain. Winds will generally remain from the NE to E through the period, 10 knots or less. Although guidance is pointing at some gusty conditions throughout the overnight at KLOZ and KSME, with gusts up to 20 knots possible.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ087-088- 118-120. Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ079-080- 083>086-110-113-115>117.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW

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