Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151201 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 801 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED THE DIURNAL RISE A BIT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS WHERE THE FOG WILL BE SLOWER TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST...AND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SOME PLACES. DENSE VALLEY FOG IS MORE PROLIFIC EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOW STRATOCU CONTINUING TO PLAGUE FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLER START AND CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH JUST A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS MEAGER BY THE TIME IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. ON TUESDAY...WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH...AND LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DRY UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH...MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...INCLUDING FAR SE KY. A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS AND HEADS EAST OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS KY FROM THE NW WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF IT. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH 14Z. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...LIKELY REACHING MVFR STATUS TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THESE WILL BE SPORADIC AND VERY LIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING. THESE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z TUESDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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