Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 032210 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 510 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 510 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AS WE FIND OURSELF ON THE LEE SIDE OF A TROUGHING PATTERN. A CENTER OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE...BEING PUSHED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS IT DOES...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS KY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER A WARM FRONT IMPACTED US TODAY...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AREA TEMPS AT BAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN CWA EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 40. THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA MAY EVEN STILL STAY IN THE LOW 50S. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL FOCUS AROUND THE RAIN. MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO AGREE THAT THE BEST BAND OF QPF WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SPREAD NE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. WITH STRONG LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...QPF OF BETWEEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER AND AN INCH AND A HALF ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A THIRD TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IF THE RAIN WASN/T ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONCERNS...WE ARE ALSO STILL DEALING WITH SOME SNOWPACK ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CWA. LUCKILY...THE SE WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT REGARDLESS...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL LEAD TO SNOWMELT...ENHANCING THE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE FLOODING POTENTIAL. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND HEADWATERS TO BE RUNNING HIGH. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. QPF HAS BEEN COMING IN LIGHTER ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHERE AROUND 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST QPF HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW PAINTING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS/I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW/SLEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BLUEGRASS AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR WILL UNDERCUT THE WARM NOSE...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES RESISTING THIS THE LONGEST. SOME ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH A SHARP GRADIENT AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES LINGERING...THE ICE IMPACT MAY BE MORE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. THE SNOW TOTALS LOOK IMPRESSIVE CLOSER TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR... WHERE UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE. AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THE SLEET WILL CUT DOWN ON THE OVERALL TOTALS. THE SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS...WITH THE WARM NOSE HANGING ON LONGER...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF HEAVIER SLEET. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A WARNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE BLUEGRASS...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LIKELY NOT SEEING A TRANSITION OVER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR BEYOND. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH...TO THE MID 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TAKE A GOOD 25 DEGREE DIVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE (AND QUIET WEATHER) WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS... WITH A FEW SPOTS IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES... WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE COLD SNAP APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY...GENERALLY PUSHING JUST NORTH OF EASTERN KY...MISSING MOST OF THE TAF SITES. AS SUCH...TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THOUGH SOME VCSH OR VCTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER 0Z...EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS KY. WITH INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE /DUE TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER NORTHERLY AIR INTERACTING WITH MOIST SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO/...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. BY OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOSE OUR INSTABILITY...BUT RAIN WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING TAF SITES GOING BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF VIS AND CIGS LIFR AND BELOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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