Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251951 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 351 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND PULL NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A TASTE OF EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NW PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WE ARE EXPECTING A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S SHOWING UP. AS A RESULT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AS LOW IF NOT LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S EXPECTED. RECORD LOW AT JACKSON FOR AUGUST 26 IS 58 SO THIS SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AREAS WITH LONGER PERIODS OF RECORD HAVE LOWER RECORDS. THE RECORD AT LONDON IS 46 AND THIS WILL NOT BE IN JEOPARDY. FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES DESPITE NAM HINTING AT SHOWERS CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE AXIS ALONG THIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS IN IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACK FURTHER NORTH OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUT EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIAN RANGE INTO THE AREA. DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING RETURN FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. BEING LATE IN THE SEASON...THE SUPER BLEND SUGGESTS NIGHTTIME CONVECTION BUT THE BLOCKING TYPE...OR MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR LOW CONFIDENCE. THOUGH THE SUPER BLEND MIGHT SUGGESTS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AS WELL...BOTH FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEM PRETTY WEAK IN THE FIRST PLACE. SO WILL ERR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE SUPER BLEND. THE RETURNED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING MAX TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL VALUES TO END THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NOSING EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD AROUND 5K FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR STREAMS AND LAKES. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SME FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...SBH

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