Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 242000 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM ITS CORE THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A DICHOTOMY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS AT 3 PM RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF IT...WHERE IT HAS RAINED AND BEEN MOST CLOUDY...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WERE STARTING TO MOISTEN THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE BOUNDARY... BUT STILL ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS ONE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER STRONGER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WESTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH IT ACCOMPANIES PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MORE ENERGY WILL THEN POUR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND STARTS TO MOVE THIS WAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SIMILARITIES WARRANT A GENERAL BLEND ALONG WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR...AT LEAST INITIALLY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST WHILE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN RESPONSE TO THE PARENT SFC LOW RACING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR WITH ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY MORNING. WHILE THE BEST ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT AND BETTER INFLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. CAPES CLIMB UP TOWARD 1000 J/KG AND LIS FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT IN THE AREA AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND STARTS TO HEAD THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONCENTRATED OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DID MAKE MINOR POINT AND TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET GUIDANCE... OVERALL...BUT ALSO SIMILAR TO THE MAV FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 PATTERN APPEARS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL....UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...TYPICAL FOR SPRING AND UNTIL THE LAST 24-36 HOURS OF THE PERIOD MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN NORMAL...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TOUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL FOLLOW TENDING TO KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THE MAIN OR MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK WILL INTRODUCE CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...WITH SUB ZERO H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING THE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL WASH OUT AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT OUT RUNS THE SFC BOUNDARY. BY THEN THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL...DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT DRAGS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH. IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MAIN COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY... EXPECTATION ARE THAT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MADE THE CIRCUIT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY NO LATER THAN SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAN THE 0Z ECMWF. A THIRD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE ARCTIC IN NATURE...WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE SECOND...PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND FUNCTIONING AS THE TRUE OPERATIVE FOR BRINING IN THE UPCOMING SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL INVADE THE COAL FIELDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT PRESENT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FROST AND OR A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WE WELL...ESPECIALLY IN OUR COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND THE ALIGNMENT OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER CEILINGS...THOUGH STILL VFR. THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING... THREATENING THE AREA WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME OUT OF SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF

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