Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261753 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 153 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 153 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Continuing to see some mid-high clouds stream in across central and southern Kentucky, while another subtle upper wave has brought another batch of these into the upper Ohio Valley. Diurnal cumulus will continue to develop this afternoon as a cool/dry summer day remains on tap across eastern Kentucky. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 A dry air mass is in place locally under a large scale eastern CONUS trough. A shortwave trough moving through the larger scale flow will approach tonight and move through on Tuesday. Models are indicating mid/upper level saturation with this system. The main question is whether we will see just virga, or if rain will make it to the ground. Nothing more than 20-30% POP appears justified at this point. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 The extended looks to start off warm and dry, as a ridge of high pressure remains in place across the region Tuesday night through Thursday morning. After that, a series of upper level weather systems and surface fronts will move across the eastern third of the CONUS. These systems will bring periods of showers and storms to eastern Kentucky to end the week and into the upcoming weekend. The latest model guidance is suggesting that the highest probabilities of showers and storm will occur Friday through Saturday, as a southeastward moving cold front interacts with a northward surge of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures during the extended look to be around normal for the time of year, with daily highs in the 80s and nightly lows in the 60s expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 North/northwest winds will remain in the 5-10 knot range this afternoon, with a few gusts of 10-15 mph possible. Lower cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening as another batch of mid-high clouds rolls in from the northwest. A weak upper level disturbance and cool front will bring a slim chance for rain showers tonight into Tuesday. Have inserted VCSH mention for now at all sites as coverage continues to look questionable regarding impacts at any specific terminal(s). Given the expected light intensity and overall limited coverage of this rain, have kept VFR conditions in play at this time. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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