Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210535 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 135 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THE RETURNS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE COME IN WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END LIKELY POPS...BUT CUT BACK THE QPF...AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST LOOK MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SO FAR...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN HOLDING IT TO A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE LATEST HRRR STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BETTER AREAL COVERAGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND MAINLY ADJUST THE POP TIMING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST IN THIS FLOW AND WAS OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT IS DEPARTING HAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL KY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND INTO PARTS OF IN AS WELL AS WESTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SFC LOW FOR THU NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE SFC LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH COMBINATION SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN BORDER AND THE KY/TN/VA TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT. WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS WELL...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS PROBABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS BRIEFLY GOING UPSLOPE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE COOP MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COLDEST SPOTS IN THE NORTH COULD REACH 39 OR 40...SO A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO AS THU NIGHT APPROACHES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE FIRST PART OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY AND BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE...BUT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 SEEING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER WE ARE STRUGGLING GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND THE GENERALLY SHEARED OUT SYSTEM. THOSE WHO DID RECEIVE RAIN WILL HAVE TO BEST CHANCES OF SEEING FALLING CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. GENERALLY SLOWLY BRING MOST SITES TO MVFR BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AND RIGHT NOW KEPT WITH THE LOWER VIS...HOWEVER THINK THE BIGGER RESTRICTION WILL BE THE CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TOWARD DAWN DO BRING SITES DOWN TO IFR WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND ALSO INTRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE. DID OPT TO MIX THIS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AND BRING TAFS SITES BACK TO MVFR. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY COMING OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ

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