Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050038 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON. GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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