Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181140 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 640 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 640 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Forecast still on track early this morning. Rain showers are beginning to move across the Tennessee border and into eastern Kentucky as we speak. These showers will be isolated to start, but should become scattered by late this morning. The rain will persist through the overnight hours, and should exit the area by mid morning Sunday. The rain will be generally light, with a quarter of an inch or less expected at most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley regions. The first rain showers should begin moving into the area early this morning, with scattered showers spreading across the remainder of eastern Kentucky through out the day. The rain should begin to taper off tonight, with the last rain showers exiting the area mid morning Sunday. Based on the latest model data, precipitation amounts should be meager at best, with a quarter of an inch or less expected pretty much everywhere. Above normal temperatures will persist during the weekend as well, with highs today in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected, and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday. Tonights lows should only fall into the low to mid 40s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph today, and will shift to the west on Sunday after the area of low pressure moves off to our east. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 346 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Springlike warmth will remain in place through the upcoming week. While the vast majority of the week looks to remain precipitation free, later Tuesday into early Wednesday looks to bring some meager rainfall amounts of perhaps one to two tenths of an inch. This will come by way of a shortwave trough extending from the Northwestern Territories to Mexico, following deep layer ridging and an invasion of balmy 850 mb temperatures, warming temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday. Further promoting this warmth will be a downslope wind component with east/southeast low level winds in place. Any lingering rainfall Wednesday morning will shift east during the afternoon, although would not be surprised to see drying ensue by early Wednesday morning given the northern stream of this wave dampening and shearing out as the southern stream portion digs into the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless, temperatures will remain warm, in the mid-upper 60s, despite a period of low clouds and without a notable change in airmass. An upper level disturbance will then develop across the Great Basin and Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, an upper low from the Canadian Prairies to Hudson Bay will usher energy into the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Not expecting any resulting rainfall for eastern Kentucky from this latter feature, but will have to monitor lead impulses ejecting downstream of the former system. Slim rain shower chances will thus result Thursday, before chances increase later Friday into the first half of next weekend. Currently looking like a cold front will finally kick through eastern Kentucky, bringing bonafide rain chances and cooler temperatures. However, upper low track across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes warrants skepticism as to greater rainfall and also potential thunder chances. Will therefore keep thunderstorm mention out of the forecast until prospects for more appreciable/robust large scale forcing for ascent become clearer. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017 Scattered showers are possible mainly from 16Z onward and enough saturation may occur for a few periods of MVFR CIGS and or VIS by the end of the period. Still not real confident that enough saturation will occur in the lower levels to allow cloud bases to descend to MVFR levels, but will monitor this situation closely and will update the TAFs as need should the MVFR conditions occur. Southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will start around 15Z this morning, and will last through the afternoon, before slacking off to around 5 mph this evening.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.