Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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535 FXUS63 KJKL 040909 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 409 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 408 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Light precip has encompassed our southern CWA and is continuing to slowly work its way north as it overcomes a layer of llvl dry air. Temperatures across the CWA are above freezing so far this morning, so all precip should be falling as rain, even if some wet bulbing is occurring. However, can`t rule out some of the higher elevations(generally above 2k ft) still seeing some snowflakes mix in as temperatures will be a tad bit cooler here at onset, and they could possibly tap into colder air aloft as well. Overall, continued to slow down pops through this morning based on the latest radar and hi-res model trends. It also looks like there may be more of a break into the afternoon, with a defined southern extent of rain pushing eastward of the state, and a secondary northern extent moving in after 21Z. Kept chance pops in otherwise during this time and into the overnight. Between about 6Z and 10Z (starting in the east), dry air really begins to pull in aloft as the upper level forcing starts pushing east of the region and allows cooler drier flow into the region. This will limit saturation to the lower levels, supporting more of a drizzle event, before the dry air continues to quickly cut off remaining precip potential by dawn Monday. Lows Monday morning should remain just above normal, generally in the upper 30s across the CWA. Low level clouds will likely persist throughout the day Monday as winds near the surface will be from a more NE to E direction compared to the Wrly flow in the mid and upper levels, keeping lingering moisture trapped near the surface for much of the day. A strong upper level low located across TX during the day Monday will begin to track northeastward as we head into the extended portion of the forecast. As this occurs, expect another strong pull of Gulf moisture into the Ohio Valley region, with a surface low pressure system rotating across Louisiana. This will result in high clouds building into the region once more from south to north throughout the day Monday and will help boost temps to just above seasonable normals in the afternoon despite cloud cover. While precip chances should generally hold off until after 0Z Tuesday, there is still a small potential that some pops could overcome mid level dry air between 18Z Monday and 0Z Tuesday, mainly along the TN border. As such, did include slight chance to low-end chance pops here for this time frame. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 The extended period looks to be quite active throughout, with a series of weather systems expected to bring multiple round of precipitation to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. The first area of low pressure is expected to move out of the southern Plains/western Gulf of Mexico region Monday and Monday night. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall to the area through Tuesday, with the highest chance for rain coming from late Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. Between three quarters and one inch of rain is expected across the area through Wednesday morning, with locally higher amounts possible. We should experience a brief lull in the active weather during the day on Wednesday, as our second area of low pressure exits the region. A third system, however, is on track to move across the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. This system will bring quite a bit of cold air into the area on its eastward trek. In fact, we are expecting minor snowfall accumulations across most of the area from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Periods of rain/snow mix will then be possible Thursday and Thursday night, as colder air filters into the region behind the departing area of low pressure. Temperatures in the extended will vary greatly. Highs on Monday and Wednesday should top out mostly in the 40s, with max values in the 50s on tap for Tuesday, as southerly flow sets up with an area of low pressure that will be moving across the area that day and night. After that, however, temperatures will take sharp nose dive, as a cold air mass settles over the region to end out the week. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 30s for most locations, with a few spots along the Tennessee border perhaps breaking 40. The cold air will become firmly established on Friday, with highs that day struggling to reach or break 30 degrees across the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will likely fall into the teens across the area, as cold westerly flow sets up across the region.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Very tricky forecast overnight and into the day tomorrow. A mid/upper level wave is expected to impact the TAF sites through the forecast period, however surface high pressure remains at the surface with a layer of dry air in place in the low levels. IR SAT does show high clouds penetrating eastern KY as the system continues to approach, and should continue to stream across the region overnight. These clouds are expected to thicken and lower, but based on latest trends, this may occur a bit later than originally expected. As of the 6Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions are expected to persist through 12Z at the southern sites KSME and KLOZ, but will quickly deteriorate after this point to MVFR throughout the day as moisture finally overcomes the llvl dry layer, and rain chances set in. This will occur a couple hours later at KJKL and KSJS and closer to 18Z at KSYM. Llvl clouds will linger throughout the upcoming night as well, possibly lowering further to IFR, even as precip chances begin to taper off. Overall, winds should remain light and variable throughout the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.