Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190527 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 127 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 127 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Temperatures continue to fall off faster than previous forecast so continued to go faster with the temperature fall and also went lower with lows given the faster fall. Looks like some mid 30s will be possible again this morning based on current trends. While fog should be dominate, some patchy frost may be possible in a few places away from bodies of water. Fog is already showing up well on the GOES-16 nighttime microphysics RGB. It looks like fog could be rather dense again this morning, so will add the dense wording to the forecast and expand the coverage. UPDATE Issued at 1054 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017 No major updates have been needed throughout the evening other than freshening up the near term temperatures, winds, and dew points. Continuing to see a few locations drop off a bit quicker than forecast, but still expect them to catch up with their forecasted lows throughout the night. Changes were sent to NDFD/web but were not significant enough to warrant any updates to the ongoing forecast package. UPDATE Issued at 734 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017 Forecast is well on track this evening. Current hourly observation temperatures may be a bit lower than originally forecast, but the diurnal trend still seems to be on track so did not see the need to adjust overnight lows at this point. Just made sure the current observations were incorporated into the near term grids and blended into the ongoing hourly temps. However, will continue to monitor in case this trend continues. Otherwise only minor updates. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017 Surface high pressure will remain entrenched across the area for the next 36 hours. Aloft a weak short wave trough will swing across the area tonight and early Thursday, but with limited moisture this will essentially have no impact on our local weather. After the passage of the weak short wave trough upper level ridging will build across the area. With the building upper ridge temperatures will continue to warm. For the overnight lows the ridge valley temperature differences will become more pronounced tonight and Thursday night as well, especially in the east. Will continue to see fog each night, mainly in the river valleys and near bodies of water. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017 Warm and dry weather is expected across eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period, as a ridge of high pressure is still forecast to remain in place across the region. High temperatures on Friday, Saturday and Sunday should top out in the mid to upper 70s. The dry weather is expected to come to an end late in the day on Sunday, as a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere, and its surface cold front, move across the area and the ridge retreats eastward. The best shot of rain should be from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning during frontal passage. The rain may linger through the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night, as residual moisture wraps around the back side of the passing trough. Temperatures should begin to cool off on Monday as the rain moves through. Another shot of cooler air is then expected to begin filtering into the area Monday night and Tuesday, as winds shift to the west and northwest behind the departing frontal boundary. Highs on Monday are expected to reach the lower 70s. Nightly lows should be in the upper 40s and lower 50s over the weekend, the low to mid 50s to start the new work week, and in the lower 40s on Wednesday morning, after the main push of cool air moves in. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Mainly VFR conditions will be seen at the TAF sites through Thursday night. However, some dense valley fog will be seen overnight into early Thursday morning, then again late Thursday night. Light winds are expected through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.