Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190225 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30 TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES LINE UP BETTER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE TIMES AT THE TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY JKL AND SJS...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. LATER TONIGHT...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME MVFR FOG FORM AT JKL AND SJS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM FORMING. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON TAP AFTER THAT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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