Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261732 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 132 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 132 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Diabatic heating has spawned a shallow cumulus field across eastern Kentucky. Diurnal heating will be more than sufficient enough to send temperatures generally into the lower 90s within the next few hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Mid/upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS will keep a hot and humid air mass in place across eastern Kentucky through the weekend. Can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon across our southern and southwestern zones as a very weak upper level disturbance manages to track around the south side of the mid/upper level ridge centered over the Atlantic seaboard. Sensible weather will see summer like weather with hot and humid conditions continuing across the forecast area. Weather will also be dry except for isolated showers and thunderstorms generally off the Cumberland Plateau and higher terrain along the Virginia border Saturday afternoon. Seasonably hot afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower 90s today and Saturday. Very humid air in place will keep overnight lows up around 70 tonight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 415 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A strong upper level high will be centered just to our east at the start of the period, with a hot and fairly humid air mass in place at the surface. Diurnal heating may be enough to get some thunderstorms going in this regime, especially over higher/more rugged terrain. With very weak flow aloft and nothing in the way of meaningful features aloft to clearly focus convection, convection will be disorganized and relatively low in coverage. The upper high is expected to weaken during the long term period, and an upper trough will deepen over the northeast CONUS. Both the ECMWF and GFS show this scenario, but do not agree on how deep the trough will be. Often in this scenario we will have a back door cold front pass through. However, neither of the models shows a cold front, but only a potential for a gradual filtering of slightly drier air into our area by late in the week. One more factor in some recent model runs involves a tropical system possibly moving through the southeast CONUS, but the most recent GFS and ECMWF suggest this may be less of an issue. With such a murky picture, slight chance POPs are in order through much of the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 VFR conditions with light easterly winds will persist today as the afternoon cumulus field dissipates this evening. This will once again set the stage for fog development, potentially becoming dense in some river valleys. Current thinking would be that terminals will see less of a threat for dense development given strong heating and lack of precipitation today, but persistence and nearby presence of weak surface ridging centered near the Great Lakes warrants maintaining at least IFR visibilities for now at LOZ/SME/SYM from approximately 8-13Z. Very light downslope flow may provide just enough subsidence to keep fog from reaching SJS/JKL. Have also seen dewpoints mix lower early this afternoon, so perhaps crossover temperatures will have a little tougher time being reached, thus inhibiting widespread fog development.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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