Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190707 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...JP

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