Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 141947 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 347 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017 ...Locally heavy rains possible this afternoon and overnight... Scattered thunderstorms with very heavy rains have moved into the southwest part of the forecast area. These will continue to move northeast but should decrease in intensity as we move into the evening. Will mention locally heavy rains in the updated hazardous weather outlook for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. As we move into the overnight period another wave of showers should affect the southern and central part of the forecast area as a subtle short wave ripples through the mean flow. The GFS and NAM MOS guidance as well as the blended forecast guidance point towards likely to high chance rain probabilities for the overnight period. Will follow that idea for tonight. A concern is locally heavy rain tonight. The excessive rainfall outlook does not include SE KY, but with the marginal risk right along the TN and VA border this will be something to watch especially with precipitable water right around 2 inches. We also received a spotter report of 1 inch of rain in Floyd County this morning with showers, and this corresponded well with radar estimates for a small part of the county. This helped highlight the efficient rain production of showers in the current warm moist air mass. The NAM continued its trend of trying to pinpoint an area of heavy rain tonight on the order of 2-3 inches, and is still trying to point towards the west central part of the forecast area. Pinpointing the location of such a local high rain amount cannot be relied upon, and as noted by the midnight forecast shift the NAM has been rather inconsistent and an outlier when compared to the other models in recent runs. This continued with the 12z runs. Despite that, with the rainfall report this morning of 1 inch, the current radar trends, the efficient rain production of the shower and storms we`ve already seen, and the expected efficiency of showers and storms this evening into the overnight, any showers and storms will need to be monitored for excessive rain. On Tuesday more showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but chances will be on a downward trend through the day. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017 Warm humid conditions and a daily threat of showers and storms will continue through the remainder of the week. The best chances for showers and storms will come Thursday night into Friday with the passage of a slow moving cold front. Slightly cooler and less humid air will arrive for the weekend with dewpoints falling into the lower to middle 60s. While it is still a week away, current indications are that viewing of the partial eclipse here in eastern KY will be okay, with no rain or extensive cloud cover in the Monday forecast at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017 Outside of shower activity, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of this afternoon. The best chance for showers this afternoon will be in the southern part of the forecast area, and an isolated thunderstorm will also be possible. However coverage should remain scattered at best, so will only carry a VCTS for SME and LOZ for this afternoon. For tonight an upper level weather disturbance will bring a better chance of showers to the central and southern part of the area and will carry a period of showers for all but the SYM TAF site. Ceilings should lower late tonight with fog also developing. Conditions should deteriorate to LIFR or possibly even VLIFR by daybreak Tuesday. Conditions will slowly improve Tuesday morning with MVFR ceilings and unrestricted visibility expected by early Tuesday afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH

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