Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 141816 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 216 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue today. - A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to end the workweek. - Hard freeze conditions Monday night and Tuesday night could kill any cold sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due to early season warmth. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent observations. Also, max T for most locations was trended up a couple of degrees on average more toward the 7Z NBM 50th percentile as the trend of highs above NBM deterministic should continue for another day in the warm sector. UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 No substantive changes were necessary. Early morning temperatures have been blended into the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 509 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 Broad mid/upper level ridging is over the southeast CONUS this morning, while a closed upper low embedded in a deep trough is over the southwest CONUS. In between, low level flow is bringing gulf moisture northward beneath a long west southwesterly fetch aloft. The flow off the gulf meets with a frontal boundary extending from TX to MO to OH, with a low over MO. The greatest moisture advection is to our west, but with time we will finally see more substantial increases in dew points today and tonight. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms, mainly as the low travels along the front and the front approaches late tonight and moves through on Friday. However, even late today forecast soundings show potential for thunderstorms over our far northern counties. It remains to be seen exactly how convection which develops upstream over MO and AR this evening affects our POP timing. If the convection races eastward fast enough, we could see our main rain earlier (such as late tonight into early Friday) and have our POP cut into as the front passes (later on Friday). It still looks like there will be rain-- just a matter of timing. The period of high POP currently in the forecast may get trimmed to a shorter length as details become more clear. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 The forecast period begins with the area on the backside of a cold front that`s forecast to move through the region on Friday. Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday night before precipitation tapers off from west to east by Saturday morning. Highs on Saturday are expected to be about 10 to 15 degrees colder than Friday and highs will be even colder for Sunday. Upper- level zonal flow will keep overnight lows relatively moderate as lows are forecast to be in the low to mid-40s. The weekend ends with a dry cold front crossing through the area. Models have continued to trend drier and drier with this potential system and now PoP chances have been entirely eliminated for Sunday. However, the upper-level trough responsible for the cold front is still expected to pivot toward the CWA and bring the potential for rain/snow mix to the region for Monday afternoon. The areas mostly likely going to see PoP will be along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Another chance of precipitation exists for Tuesday as models are in agreement that a weak cold front will move through the region Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually increase through the week before models bring another system through the region for the end of the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 VFR was observed at issuance time across eastern KY. Daytime mixing is leading to south to southwest winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts as high as 10 to 25KT. Around or near sunset, winds and in particular gusts should diminish. Convection over portions of northern KY could affect locations near and north of I-64 such as KSYM in a few hours and if it holds together. However, confidence in this is not high. With any convection late this afternoon or evening, localized brief sub-VFR conditions would result. There is a much higher probability of showers and thunderstorms arriving generally after 06Z and some brief sub-VFR may occur in this. Moisture will continue to increase late in the period and prevailing sub-VFR should arrive or develop toward 18Z and after.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...JP

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