Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200547 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 147 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 147 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017 The forecast has been on track so far tonight, so major changes were necessary. Ingested the latest obs data into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends, but made no other changes. UPDATE Issued at 1039 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Most of the CU has not dissipated with some high clouds streaming into the region from TN Valley. Otherwise seeing some fog forming in the valleys in SE Pike County based on GOES 16 Night Time Microphysics channel, and this leads to a bit more confidence that the south and east stand the best chances of seeing fog tonight. Therefore, will leave fog as is for now and let subsequent updates deal with latest obs and trends. Also did some adjustments on the valley temps given the latest obs and slight ridge/valley splits seen right now. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 WSR-88D radar is showing some isolated rain showers moving across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will be light and progressive in nature and will dissipate through the late afternoon and evening. Otherwise an area of surface high pressure will build into the region. The forecast is in good shape just minor adjustments to account for on going rain showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 357 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 A surface cold front has slipped southeast into Tennessee, with some isolated to scattered showers hanging on across the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Meanwhile, a few shallow showers have also popped up further north at times, as an upper level trough axis rotates through the Ohio Valley. Drier air is mixing down across portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with dew points in the mid to upper 50s at times in some locations. The shower activity will come to an end by dusk, as the cold front continues to pull away along with deeper moisture. High pressure will build in from the south and southeast tonight. Clearing skies and calming winds will allow for some fog. The more dense fog will be confined to the deeper river valleys, especially along portions of the Cumberland Basin, where shower activity has lingered the longest during the day. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dry weather can be expected through the rest of the short term, as high pressure maintains control to our southeast and heights recover aloft. Tuesday will feature some fair weather cumulus developing during the day, with highs in the lower 80s and dew points down into the more pleasant mid 50s. This should set up a cooler night in the valleys Tuesday night, with some mid 50s for some locations, and patchy valley fog once again. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 352 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 Wednesday should remain dry as high pressure is in place across the CWA, with a stalled front located southeast of the region, and another weak/dying frontal boundary washing out just north of the state. Skies will remain mostly clear with generally light SW flow at the surface. Temperatures will once again rise back into the mid 80s, despite the overarching upper level troughing in place. By Thursday, attention turns to a tropical system moving onshore along the Gulf of Mexico. This system will slowly continue shifting northward into the southern Mississippi Valley to finish out the week, before shifting northeast and into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and dissipating by Sunday. This will pull warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico back into the Commonwealth, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to return to the forecast by Thursday. On Friday, the moisture in place across the region will also interact with an incoming cold front pushing in from the NW, bringing more widespread convection to the CWA and much of the state. While thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the afternoon/evening, the more concerning thing to note will be the amount of moisture and therefore QPF to be expected. Latest GFS20 soundings are showing PWAT values well above 2 inches during portions of the day Friday and into Saturday morning, even above 2.25 inches in some instances. This will be something to watch for potential flooding concerns during this time. The frontal boundary is forecast to become stalled out across Kentucky for the remainder of the weekend as the tropical low becomes absorbed in the overall longwave pattern and loses strength, and a very strong high pressure ridge just off the Atlantic coast blocks forward progression. Kept scattered showers and thunderstorms forecasted across the region during the weekend as a result. This ridge will eventually begin shifting eastward and allow the boundary to finally pass through Kentucky Sunday night/Monday, rounding out the forecast period. By this point, any remaining precipitation across the CWA will be in the form of rain, with little instability left to initiate convection. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017 VFR conditions are expected through out the period at JKL, SYM, and SJS. LOZ and SME may experience some MVFR conditions due to fog between 8 and 12Z this morning. SCT clouds with bases around 6K are expected to form across the area by 15 or 16Z this morning. These clouds will likely persist through the end of the TAF period once they form. Winds should be light and variable.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR

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