Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211925 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 325 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 Convection associated with the MCS that moved across OH affected the northern part of our forecast area this morning, but the convection quickly dissipated as it moved into the northern part of our forecast area. A couple of outflows were associated with this with one pushing into VA where more convection was triggered, and a secondary residual boundary which remains across the central part of the forecast area. It is still possible something could develop along this residual boundary late this afternoon and evening. Satellite also shows an MCV across IN with convection beginning to develop in west central IN, and there is yet another MCS across WI. The HRRR is not showing much development this evening over IN with the MCV, but latches onto the system now in WI. Both the NAM and GFS point towards the possibility of convection across the north early tonight, possibly associated with the Indiana MCV. The ECMWF points towards a chance in the north closer to dawn as the main MCS now in WI passes by to our north. For the near term forecast have leaned towards the HRRR with support from the ECMWF. This results in lower rain chances for tonight than either the GFS or NAM MOS. As we move into Saturday another steamy day is on tap with maximum forecasts mostly in the lower 90s and heat indices near 100. How much convection we see on Saturday is still in question and followed the standard model blend for rain chances Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 The period begins with a upper level short wave trough and associated surface low pushing SSE across the northern Great Lakes. This will progress on into the northeastern U.S. early next week, with the associated cold front moving across our area on Monday. At this point it appears the best chance for showers and storms will be Sunday afternoon even though the front won`t clear the area until Monday. The front looks to stall to our south next week. This will result in temperatures closer to normal, but with at least a small chance of daily showers and storms especially in the southern part of the forecast area.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 The showers and storms that moved into the northern part of the forecast area this morning quickly dissipated as they moved southeast further into southeast KY. The outflow boundary associated with the storms has pushed into VA. Storms have developed along this boundary. While an isolated storm cannot be ruled out in eastern KY this afternoon most storms will remain east or southeast of our area for the remainder of the day. Another thunderstorm complex is expected to pass to the north of the forecast area late tonight into early Saturday. It is possible some of this activity could affect the northern part of the forecast area, but it is too uncertain to include in any TAFs, though will carry VCTS for SYM and SJS for Saturday morning. VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the area although some haze will be possible in a few spots this afternoon. Similar to last night, some fog should develop tonight, with SME and LOZ the sites expected to be affected. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH

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