Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261125 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 725 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT OBS DATA...AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REIGN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING TRAVERSING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TAKE AIM AT THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING PERIODS OF ADVERTISED WEAKER FORCING...AS MODELS TEND TO INFLATE THE CONVECTION IN GENERAL. THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE SUN COMES UP AND THINGS BEGIN TO HEAT UP A BIT. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY UPSTREAM...AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE 15 TO 16Z TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD WHEN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WOULD FIRST BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ANY AIRPORT THAT EXPERIENCES A SHOWER OR STORM COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FOG. THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE ON TAP AND COULD CREATE ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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