Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 100630 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWER A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. INITIALLY HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM...HOWEVER MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE WHEN THE NEW ECMWF COMES IN AFTER 3 AM. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS THAT HAS BEEN BIAS AND ELEVATION ADJUSTED. ONCE THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NORMAL VALLEY FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED ALREADY...SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG FORM IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF JACKSON. THE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WAS ONLY ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. NORMALLY...IN THIS SCENARIO...THE STATIONS WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SEEING SOME VALLY FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. STATIONS LIKE JKL...WILL NOT SEE FOG FORM OVERHEARD...HOWEVER SOME MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS BELOW AND THE LIFT AS THE HEATING STARTS UP. THIS LIFTED FOG THEN MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE ASOS THAN THE RUNWAY. SME AND SJS HAD MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...SO MADE THE CONDITIONS WORSE THERE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.