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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 171735 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER TOO
EXTENSIVE FOR MUCH HEATING AND SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND.
STILL EXPECT FCST HIGHS TO BE CLOSE UT HEATING HAS LIMITED THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS WITH CURRENT OBS AND
ZONES TO REDUCE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE SW. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND ZONES TO REMOVE
FOG AND MORNING WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING. SINCE THE AIR OVER EASTERN
FAIRLY UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS IT DOES...SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL PIN WHEEL
AROUND IT AND HELP TO SPAWN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE MAIN LOW WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ONLY HAD TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED AND UNSETTLED
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN
AND SLOWLY EXIT OFF TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE GIVEN
LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE A THREAT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CULMINATE INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE JUST USED
A BLEND OF THE OUTCOMES...WHICH YIELDS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOLID CHANCES
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE SLOW TO EXIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PINWHEEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR
DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP THE CIG AND VSBY
TO MVFR. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE MORE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MORNING AND THE RAIN SHOULD
ENTER THE FORECAST SOONER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DUSTY