Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 140343 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1043 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1043 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2018 An forecast update has been issued. Aside from removing evening wording from the text product and ingesting the latest obs into the forecast grids to establish new trends, no changes to the forecast were needed. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2018 The forecast has been on track so far this evening. Will continue to monitor current conditions to see if any significant update is necessary later in the shift. Will have to eventually issue and update to remove some outdated wording in the zone forecast product. For now have simply ingested the latest obs into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 346 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2018 Low stratus continues to hold firm across eastern Kentucky this afternoon as a weak surface trough sits across the far eastern reaches of the Commonwealth. Earlier day rain showers have diminished, with perhaps a few sprinkles/drizzle still found right underneath low cloud bases on ridgetops near the Virginia state line. While a mainly dry evening will be in store, rain showers will increase in coverage across the Lake Cumberland region and Interstate 75 corridor later this evening into tonight. A developing lee trough across the Front Range of the Rockies, combined with a ridge axis across the eastern U.S. coast, will draw rich moisture northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast soundings show saturated low levels deepening up to about 550 mb later tonight and Wednesday morning as precipitable water values surge to near 1.25 inches. The corresponding southwest flow and passing thermal ridge axis will only make for temperatures dropping into the 40s. Isentropic ascent coupled with perhaps some weak upper support will drive the local forcing for ascent tonight into Wednesday morning. While expected rainfall amounts tonight through Wednesday, currently in the quarter to half inch range, do not look to present much in the way of additional flooding concerns, receding river levels may be halted. A relatively drier period looks to be on tap Wednesday evening into at least the early night as moisture levels, although still high for mid-February, dropoff a bit. Forcing will also be limited at this time as warm air advection continues across eastern Kentucky. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2018 Pattern remains very active into next week with periodic rain chances continuing through early next week. However, confidence beyond Friday is very limited with models all over the place with possible outcomes. In fact, several models are supporting at least some light snowfall potential Friday evening through Saturday. However, with such model uncertainty, hard to go with much in the way of snowfall potential as we could completely miss out on the snow chances. Sunday is trending towards a drier day as most models support some form of high pressure drifting across the region. Otherwise, rain chances will dominate Saturday, and again from Sunday night through Tuesday. Focusing on the shorter term part of the forecast, it looks like some light drizzle will be seen Thursday with a cloudy day in store. Drizzle could be measurable at least in the morning, so will maintain the higher rain chances, before trailing off later in the day. A cold front will then work south on Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is expected early in the day, but models are supporting the heavier rain staying to our north presently. However, some showers should push south through the day associated with the front. Colder air will filter in behind the front, but this is where the uncertainty in the forecast creeps in as some models want to change things over to snow before the precipitation exits Friday night. Thus, its possible we could see some snow, but given the warm and wet ground going into this period and not extremely cold temperatures, any impacts should be very limited. Rainfall on Friday could approach an inch in the north. To highlight the potential rainfall through the extended, and the potential to at least slow down the rivers that are receding, will issue an ESF to cover the hydro threat. All in all, not sure the additional rainfall will be enough to push locations back into flood. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 650 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2018 MVFR ceilings currently in place at all the TAF sites except SJS, where SCT to BKN clouds are currently moving by overhead. Saturated near surface conditions will bring a return to IFR or worse ceilings tonight as a surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves into eastern Kentucky. Visibilities may also fall below VFR criteria due to the abundant moisture, particularly if any clearing in the low level cloud deck can occurs. Rain shower chances will then be on the increase by early Wednesday morning and beyond. The latest model data all suggest that the highest likelihood for rain during the TAF period will be during the day on Wednesday, as an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere moves across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley`s. Will also monitor winds within the lowest 2000 feet this evening and tonight, with any semblance of low level wind shear currently looking rather marginal. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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