Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241722 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 122 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Ern KY has seen breaks in the clouds this morning as ely flow has brought some downsloping. Expect the clouds to redevelop this afternoon however, as low level moisture continues to be pulled into the region by H5 low. Lowered PoPs some for today, but left slight chance PoPs for the extreme eastern areas, as can`t rule out a shower popping up. Didn`t adjust highs for this afternoon, as temperatures in the lower to mid 60s still look reasonable. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday evening) Issued at 405 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 The models are once again in excellent agreement aloft through the short term. They all depict a closed and semi-cutoff low dropping through the Deep South and then east to the Atlantic Coast today. As this low moves further away from Kentucky heights will rebound and attention will shift to the flow pattern to the northwest. This mid level pattern will be in the process of developing a large trough over the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the closed low will be continuing its trek up the east coast - located over Cape Hatteras at this time. Given the good model agreement will favor a blended/consensus solution along with a lean toward the high res HRRR early on. Sensible weather will feature a cloudy and still rather cool day across eastern Kentucky as most places dry out. A few lingering showers will continue to affect the area - particularly east but just small amounts of QPF are expected. Plenty of low level moisture will continue to keep skies rather cloudy tonight and into Tuesday which will limit the temperature drop off tonight but should not impact the rebound much on Tuesday as highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a return of partial sunshine. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance to start off the grids through the short term. Did not have to make much adjustment to temperatures but did nudge dewpoints down a few degrees this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Also made some minor tweaks to the PoPs and QPF grids to limit their range and coverage today. .LONG TERM...(After midnight Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Very mild air will build into the region for the middle of the week as shortwave ridging pushes east across the region. A shortwave trough will then drive a cold front across the area on Thursday. Models are tending towards a slightly more active front on Thursday, so confidence is increasing for at least some scattered showers and storms with the front passage. In fact, 0-6km shear magnitude is 40 knots. This coupled with some surface instability will lead to some potentially damaging wind gusts. Instability and mid level lapse rates not impressive enough to support updrafts capable of hail, so it looks like any threat from storms would be limited to damaging wind gusts. Dry weather would return by late Thursday evening. However, a warm front will lift north across the area Friday and Friday night and bring more chances of showers and storms. Some model differences emerge by Friday, but depending on how things work out, more strong to severe storms would be possible. The warm front exits to the north by early Saturday morning with dry weather returning for the weekend. In the wake of the front, summer-like weather will surge north across the area with highs well into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. As upper levels amplify with a large ridge developing over the eastern US, the warm weather may continue into the following week. However, at some point, a cold front will work into the Ohio river valley and interact with the warm and moist air to provide another unsettled period sometime early next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017 Cigs are fairly complicated areawide this afternoon with portions of the Bluegrass VFR and even some downsloping VFR in the far southeast at times. Overall keeping most of the TAF sites MVFR till around 20Z to 23Z. Then most should see the ceilings improve and this will lead to a complicated forecast overnight. Depending on the clearing amounts do we see a stratus build down or a fog development type night. Right now given the confidence level will lean toward MVFR fog at SME/LOZ and hold off on other sites at this point. Winds will remain light out of the east and northeast through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ

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