Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011804 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 ENDED UP EXTENDING THE WSW AND SPS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO 11AM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT /AT THE TIME/ TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA...AND REPORTS OF CONTINUED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WSW OR SPS CONTINUED TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND WERE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THE EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINES...SO HAD NO NEED TO CONTINUE THE WSW OR SPS ANY LONGER. DURING THE INITIAL EXTENSION OF THE PRODUCTS...ALSO WENT IN AND UPDATED THE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WSW AREA. THIS HAS SINCE FALLEN OUT OF THE FORECAST AS WELL. CURRENTLY...A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST FROM A FEW HOURS AGO. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WILL BE LOADING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THAT THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING FEATURED SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE DEVELOPING LL JET RESULTED IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. REPORTS OVER NEAR PIKEVILLE THIS MORNING RELAYED SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REPORTS WITH SOME SLICKNESS DEVELOPED ON SECONDARY ROADS. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AND THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS IN THE FAR EAST...SENT OUT AN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS. THESE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING TO MIX OUT. NO REPORTS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST AND BLUEGRASS REGION AND GIVEN THE SURGE OF WARM AIR COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH THE SPS MENTIONING SOME LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RISE QUITE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP WITH THE WSW HIGHLIGHTED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC. AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST +5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS. OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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