Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210019 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON. HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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