Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191130 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 DRIZZLE HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS... THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING UP. HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING. TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING. AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR EXPECTED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...AND A SMATTERING OF VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... LEAVING VFR TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP IS LOW. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS CONTAINING RIVERS AND LARGE STREAMS LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL

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