Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270541 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 141 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH UPSTREAM AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD...A FEW AREAS OF WHAT IS LIKELY VIRGA IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL RADAR ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. MORE THAN LIKELY...WE WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING FROM THESE RADAR BLIPS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND...AND THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BEFORE IT IMPACTS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE...DID GO AHEAD AND ADD BACK IN SOME ISOLATED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SPARK SOME NEW CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE AS A PRECAUTION THAN ANYTHING ELSE...ADDED IN SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. FINALLY... UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO INCLUDE THE LATEST ONGOING OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED...AS WELL...TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT IT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT UP TO THIS POINT TO KEEP THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AWAY. A FEW PIN PRICK SHOWERS DID POP UP NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER EARLIER IN THE EVENING BUT THESE HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. OTHER POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONT. THE NEAR TERM MODELS... MAINLY THE NAM12...SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA WILL FADE OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAWN SO HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CHANCES IN THE POP/WX GRIDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GIVEN MORE CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY READINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 80S. DEWPOINTS VARY A BIT WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE OTHERS ARE AS LOW AS THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT THESE DIFFERENCES TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WELL...DESPITE VERY LIGHT WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 A QUIET AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AT THIS STUFF MOVES EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FUELED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS VERY SLOW AND WON/T LIKELY REACH OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64 SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THIS BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EAST. ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE AREA STAYS DRY. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS INSTABILITY DROPS THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WILL SPELL ANOTHER SOMEWHAT QUIET NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOUCHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BOTH FEATURE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT HOW DENSE IT BECOMES WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO REFLECT TO THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH. A LINGERING BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SOME NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LEE SIDE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOW QUITE A CAP IN PLACE THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENT THAT THE CAP WILL BE SUCH THAT GROWTH WILL BE LIMITED TO SPRINKLES AND A FEW SHOWERS. IF BY CHANCE A SHOWER DOES POP THE CAP...THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF EASTERN KY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES FLATTEN AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON ERODING THE MENTIONED CAP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME A REMAINING CAP AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HOLDING OFF TILL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A SLOWED FRONT FROM EXITING AND ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THURSDAY AND THE SUPER BLEND DOES SUPPORT THIS NOTION. A POSSIBLE LAPSE IN CONSISTENCY MAY TAKE SHAPE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE MAIN TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INTRUDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MOST CURRENT OPERATION MODELS AGREE WITH THIS AS DOES THE SUPER BLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW OF THE TAF SITES BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT OF THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS UNCERTAIN TONIGHT SO HAVE JUST ADDED A BIT OF FOG TO THE LOWER ELEVATION SITES THAT TEND TO BE MORE PRONE TO SEEING ITS DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY SITE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GRIEF/JMW

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