Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231727 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon still appears to be near the remnants of an outflow boundary near the TN border. This idea is supported by the latest HRRR runs. Have updated the NDFD based on the latest observational trends. UPDATE Issued at 733 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Areas of dense fog continue in a few of the deeper river valleys, as well as across portions of northeastern Kentucky where better clearing occurred overnight on top of greater rainfall amounts Friday. Will see this mix out in the next hour or two. Could see a few showers start up at anytime near the Lake Cumberland region in vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Lingering light shower activity has just about wrapped up early this morning across the Lake Cumberland region. Should continue to see this trend as peak diurnal cooling approaches and only sign of any lift sits across southern Kentucky into the Tennessee Valley in the form of a convective outflow boundary. Areas of dense fog will continue in the deeper valleys this morning and in locations that received appreciable rainfall amounts Friday, especially across northeast Kentucky into the Big Sandy region in the presence of better clearing. Will see this mix out come mid morning as turbulent mixing ensues. Main focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today will come by way of the aforementioned outflow boundary. This should spell the best precipitation chances beginning along the Tennessee border as diurnal heating takes place in a sultry airmass. Locales along the Virginia border will see a slightly better potential for storms as well due to the aid of orographic forcing. Not much if anything to work with in terms of forcing aloft as the eastern extent of central through southern U.S. ridging remains overhead. Given Friday`s rainfall, high temperatures should remain capped in the lower 90s, still leading to heat indices near the century mark. Upper forcing for ascent will be lacking once again for Sunday as upper ridging strengthens across the region, leading to greater thicknesses and subsequently hotter temperatures given a likely lower coverage in rainfall. Heat indices could very well approach heat advisory criteria (105F) Sunday afternoon, but this will be dependent on the presence of any rainfall, which will be dependent on any remnant outflow boundaries near eastern Kentucky. Terrain induced storms may once again develop, but likely not covering enough real estate to alleviate the significant heat likely to materialize. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Broad elongated high pressure will remain across the southern half of the conus throughout much of the extended...keeping deamplified troughing and shortwaves passing across the northern half. The Ohio River Valley will find itself oscillating between the two main features, being affected by multiple shortwaves, before a slightly deeper trough moves into the upper midwest during the midweek. This will result in height falls across KY which will persist into next weekend as an even larger/deeper trough moves into the region, rounding out the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will start off the period Monday as a cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late in the day. This boundary stalls out and will tend to keep any convection focused across the region through mid week. What`s left of the boundary lifts northward late Wednesday, just as another slightly more amplified trough begins to drop into the region from the northwest by late Thursday or Friday, pushing the frontal zone back closer to the Ohio River while remaining focused north of the CWA, as well as enhancing precip chances, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. From here, more drastic height falls will take hold as the deepest of the troughs moves through the region through the weekend. Despite no frontal boundaries passing through the region, overall instability and upper level forcing will continue to drive scattered to numerous convection across eastern KY through the weekend. The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined with daily convection will help keep our high temperatures close to normal for this time of the year, or possibly slightly cooler as we head into the weekend. But overall our weather will remain quite muggy. Overnight lows will be warm, running a little above normals, in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Fields of cumulus clouds in the northern part of the forecast area as well as parts of the southeast have resulted in some local MVFR ceilings just below 3k feet early this afternoon. The only TAF site affected has been SYM, though some other airport sites such as PBX also seeing MVFR ceilings. The cloud bases should lift to above 3k by mid afternoon and will go with VFR for the remainder of the afternoon in the TAFS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms still appear most likely near the TN and VA borders from mid afternoon to early evening. Have carried VCTS at SME to account for this possibility but have left out of other TAFs sites. Outside of typical river valleys the fog last night was pretty well correlated to where rain occurred yesterday afternoon and evening. Have low confidence on exactly which TAF sites may be affected by fog tonight into early Sunday. Have based the fog forecast partly on persistence but if more rain occurs later today than expected there will be more fog than currently forecast.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...SBH

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