Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 162344 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 744 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Most of the afternoon cu is beginning to scatter out this evening as some mid to high level clouds push through the area. This clearing should lead to valley temps dropping off quickly again tonight. So have freshened up the hourly temps and sky cover. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 345 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 As of mid afternoon, a weak upper level low is meandering across the southeastern states while a weak shortwave is passing by to the north of the area. Cumulus developed this afternoon mainly closer to the TN and VA borders and some sprinkles likely fell from the weak returns. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge is centered over the southern Plains to Western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the Mid Atlantic coast with ridging west into the southern Appalachian region. Overall, once the wave passes by over the next few hours, the remainder of the short term period is expected to feature height rises with mid and upper level ridging building across the Southeastern States and then toward the Mid Atlantic states to end the period. High pressure at the surface will also remain place and centered south and east of the area. Southerly to southwesterly flow is expected into the lower levels through the period with west to southwest flow aloft. This pattern will favor above normal temperatures through the period with nocturnal temperature inversions leading to ridge/valley temperature splits and deeper river valley fog tonight and Monday night. Cu and any lingering cumulus should diminish through the evening, giving way to mostly clear skies tonight. Current dewpoints are near to slightly above readings from this morning. Coop MOS guidance supports valley min T and normally colder spots slightly warmer than this mornings readings. The lower than normal soil moisture suggests lows a bit below guidance for tonight as was the trend last night. Highs should be more solidly in the lower 80s across most of the area with the exception of the highest terrain on Monday. A couch of Cu may develop, but should be less prolific than today with some high clouds as well as weak disturbances move by in the flow. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Models are starting to converge on a solution with the cold front passage towards the end of the week, so forecast confidence is increasing for the late week period. Strong ridging will reside over the area through Wednesday, keeping the mild and dry conditions in place and providing 2 more days of potential record highs. It looks now that a cold front will move through Kentucky late Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a good chance of rain for the area. Any rainfall would be very beneficial and models seem in reasonable agreement on producing a quarter to a half inch of rainfall with the frontal passage. It now looks like the front will be on the way out on Friday with dry conditions returning for the weekend. In fact, a shortwave ridge will move overhead on Saturday and could spell a pleasant fall weekend. The mornings could be a bit chilly, with lows possibly dipping into the 30s. Not out of the question we could see some frost at some point next weekend, but models have been a bit inconsistent on temperatures, so will hold off on mentioning any frost for now. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Some mid and high level clouds will be present at times through the period, but VFR conditions should prevail. There is the potential for deep river valley fog again between 6Z and 13Z, but this should not affect any of the TAF sites. Winds may become gusty tomorrow afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a low pressure system lifting through the Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, winds will generally be 10 KT or less out of the south to southwest.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JVM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.