Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180541 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 141 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 137 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2017 High pressure remains in control of the weather across the OH Valley early this morning. A few high clouds are passing across the region at this time. GOES 16 data indicate that river valley fog has begun to form and given low or 0 dewpoint depressions in these locations and light winds it should become dense in some locations and persist until after sunrise. The current SPS and social media messaging have this well covered at this point. Hourly grids of wx, T, and Td have been updated based on recent observations and trends. However, this led to no substantial changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 Temperatures are running a couple degrees above last night`s values at this time so the current forecast and just spotty frost looks to be on track. Have updated and sent out the SPS for this and dense river valley fog. Also updated the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 8:00 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure firmly in control of the weather through eastern Kentucky. However, a batch of generally thin and high clouds will cross into the region through at least the first part of the night likely affecting the otherwise perfect conditions for radiational cooling. We should still see temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s in the more sheltered locations with low 40s found on the ridges by dawn. Again expect the fog to dominate over frost with dense areas anticipated along the rivers and lakes. Given the widely scattered frost and dense fog issues late tonight into Wednesday morning will continue the highlights in the ongoing SPS and HWO. Currently readings are in the mid 50s on the ridges with upper 40s seen already in the sheltered valleys while dewpoints are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s and the winds remain light. have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune spot min temperatures and frost/fog configuration later tonight. Did also incorporate the latest T/Td obs and trends into those grids along with an update to sky cover through the near term. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 The afternoon surface analysis shows a fairly broad area of high pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic to northeast Arkansas. The highest surface pressure seems to point to West VA being closest to the center of this high. The latest GOES-16 Sat data shows a few high clouds now moving into western Kentucky in advance of a weak upper level trough. These clouds will advance eastward tonight and this could play a tricky role on fog and frost overnight. Overall keep the coldest temperatures in the far eastern deeper valley locations where you are getting better mixing of drier air than yesterday. Given the potential for fog and at least patchy frost will lean toward a SPS for now, as factors mentioned before lead to some potential complications in formation of weather elements. The frost and fog will generally dissipate between 13 the 14Z Wednesday morning and we will be left with mostly sunny skies. There could be a few afternoon high clouds as the upper level wave axis moves slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley. The area of surface high pressure will however remain near by and lead to clear and calm conditions again Wednesday night. That said, the temperatures will remain coolest in the far eastern valleys based on the surface high location and slight height rises in the Lake Cumberland region. Given the temperatures are not as low will keep the patchy valley fog mention only. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017 Dry and pleasant weather is in store for the majority of the extended period, as a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain in place across the region. Daytime highs are expected to be above normal during the period, with daily max values in the 70s expected across the area. Nightly lows should also be above normal, with nightly minimums ranging from the mid to upper 40s Thursday night and Friday night and the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday night and Sunday night. A pattern change is in store to close out the weekend, and based on the latest model data, it appears that next batch of rain will arrive in the area Sunday night, as a large trough of low pressure, and its attendant surface cold front, makes it way across the central and eastern CONUS. The highest probability for rain will likely be from around dawn on Monday through Monday night, as the cold front moves slowly across the region. Light to at times moderate rain showers will affect eastern Kentucky during the passage of the front. Another shot of colder air is expected to filter into the area once the front passes by to begin the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2017 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the TAF period. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period, with the exception being in the river valleys and near larger creeks and lakes, where fog that has already developed or will be developing over the next few hours could become dense in some locations, especially between 8Z and 13Z. Some of the fog could advect into SME overnight with this less probable at the other TAF sites. The fog will lift and should dissipate between 13 and 14Z. Winds through the TAF period will remain light averaging out of the southeast to south.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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