Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 142215 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 615 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday though departures will decrease to the 5 to 10 degree range. - A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to end the workweek. With rainfall generally one quarter to one half of an inch. - A deeper passing system aloft brings a threat of some rain/snow showers on Monday. - Hard freeze conditions Monday night could kill any cold sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due to early season warmth.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 511 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 Late this afternoon, the axis of an upper level ridge extended from the Caribbean north near the eastern seaboard while another upper level ridge extended across portions of the Pacific into the northwest Conus. In between an upper level trough extended southwest from the Hudson Bay region into the southwest Conus with southwest flow aloft from the Southern Plains into the Lower OH Valley. A closed low was located across the desert southwest with the upper trough while a more progressive shortwave trough extended from Ontario to the Northern Plains while additional weaker shortwaves were moving in the southwest flow toward the OH Valley region. At the surface, a wavy frontal zone extended from the New England coast across the mid Atlantic states into the southern Great Lakes to mid MS Valley vicinity to the Southern Plains to southwest Conus in advance of the upper level trough axis. Earlier convection generally passed north of eastern KY although some isolated showers or storms were moving across the region at this time, generally near or north of the Mountain Parkway as a weak shortwave moves through the OH Valley region. MLCAPE is currently analyzed in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across the western half or third of the CWA while instability further east is minimal due to dewpoints only in the 40s to around 50. Effective shear is sufficient for some organization to convection. This evening and tonight, shortwaves in southwest flow should continue to progress across the Lower OH Valley region while the axis of the upper level trough shifts gradually southeast to an Ontario to northern Great Lakes to SD line late tonight. This trough axis should progress southeast across the Great Lakes and pass across parts of the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Another more potent shortwave will drop southeast across central portions of Canada and is expected to reach western Ontario to the upper MS Valley by the end of the period. In advance of the shortwave working toward the Great Lakes and OH Valley, the wavy frontal zone should gradually move south and east toward the Commonwealth tonight and cross KY from Friday into Friday evening. the frontal zone and a series of shortwaves will lead to convection at times, though chances peak later tonight through Friday when the combination of moisture and lift peaks. PW reaches the 1 to 1.25 inch range late tonight through Friday afternoon while forcing associated with the front and the passing shortwave peaks during that time. QPF with this system has generally trended down into the quarter to half of an inch range, though as is the nature of convection some locally higher amounts should occur where any stronger thunderstorms pass. Above normal temperatures will persist ahead of the front through Friday and even behind it on Friday night as only a modest cool down is expected. The hourly temperatures and min T for deeper eastern valleys is a bit tricky tonight, but cloud cover should be insufficient for another ridge/valley temperature split tonight with the deeper valleys dropping toward the 50 degree mark and stayed close to the previous forecast with details for that. Coalfield valleys may not drop below the 60 degree mark in some instances. Temperatures for most areas should reach well into the 60s for highs on Friday in the warm sector. Lows on Friday night should as much above normal as tonight, but still above normal nevertheless in the low to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 615 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 An amplified long wave pattern will be in place through the majority of the period. Beefier short wave energy will be inbound from the western Great Lakes this weekend, with a northern stream trough becoming entrenched over the East by early next week. This will bring back more winter-like conditions across eastern Kentucky at least temporarily. Meanwhile, as the eastern trough exits off to the east and northeast, a stagnant closed low over the southwestern CONUS will finally push east and transition to an open wave, reaching the southern Plains by Thursday. Warm air advection out ahead of this system, will result in moderating temperatures by mid-week, with a small chance of rain returning towards the end of the period. It will be mostly dry this weekend, with a passing cold front late Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing mainly an increase in clouds. Temperatures will start out above normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Readings will then dip into the 30s Sunday night, and likely only rebound into the low to mid 40s for Monday, with the passage of a deeper short wave trough axis. Colder temperatures aloft associated with the short wave passage will support some snow showers mixing in with rain showers during the day on Monday, especially to our northeast. Precipitation will come to an end by early Monday evening, with clouds likely clearing and winds calming enough to allow for most locations to get down into the low to mid 20s, with a few spots possibly seeing some upper teens by early Tuesday morning. Warm air advection then kicks in out ahead of another approaching system Tuesday night into Wednesday. Model agreement is not great at this time, but both the GFS and ECMWF are maintaining a decent pressure gradient over the area Tuesday night, which would mitigate another strong drop off in the valleys. Still, dew points will be particularly dry going into the night, so can not rule out at least the more sheltered sites returning to the upper 20s, while most other locations stay in the 30s. Another dry cold front passes through Wednesday. Any cold air advection following this will be short-lived at best, as the aforementioned southern stream system quickly allows for another surge of warm air advection out ahead of it. Highs will moderate back to near normal in the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday, with lower 60s likely by Thursday, with a small threat of rain later in the day.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 VFR was observed at issuance time across eastern KY. Daytime mixing is leading to south to southwest winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts as high as 10 to 25KT. Around or near sunset, winds and in particular gusts should diminish. Convection over portions of northern KY could affect locations near and north of I-64 such as KSYM in a few hours and if it holds together. However, confidence in this is not high. With any convection late this afternoon or evening, localized brief sub-VFR conditions would result. There is a much higher probability of showers and thunderstorms arriving generally after 06Z and some brief sub-VFR may occur in this. Moisture will continue to increase late in the period and prevailing sub-VFR should arrive or develop toward 18Z and after. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JP

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