Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 212337 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 737 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Beautiful weather is in store for the residents of eastern Kentucky over the next few days. A few low level clouds will move across the skies this evening and tonight, with light to calm winds expected. The one weather feature of note tonight will be fog. With clear skies, calm winds, and ample surface moisture, the stage will be set for fog to form across the area. In fact, most locations will likely see fog late tonight, with the valleys and locations near bodies of water seeing the densest and longest lasting fog. The forecast remains on track with no changes planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A surface cold front is currently aligned from central New York down along the central and southern Appalachians. Broad high pressure centered across the southern Plains is moving in, along with a much more pleasant air mass, with dew points in the 50s. Aloft, a trough axis is swinging through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Just a few showers remain across far southeastern Kentucky, with these likely ending in the next hour or so. Skies will become mostly clear tonight, as high pressure builds in at the surface, while heights recover aloft. Given the recent rainfall and temperatures getting down to near or just less than 60, would expect areas of dense fog to form. On Monday, the fog will burn off by the mid to late morning, with a beautiful rest of the day on tap. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80, with lower relative humidity. The lower dew points in place will set up another cool night as skies remain mostly clear. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s, with any areas of fog likely more restricted to the river valleys. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 308 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Models are in very good agreement with the mid/upper level pattern into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will push east through the midweek period, with return flow bringing slightly milder air into the region. Humidity will also make a slow return into Wednesday, but should be nothing like we have seen recently. Despite the increase in humidity for the midweek period, forcing will remain non-existent, keeping rain chances at at bay. As the high gets squashed into the southeast by Thursday and Friday, a shortwave will push north and east across the Ohio river valley with rain chances increasing to our west and north. Forcing from this wave will only graze our northern counties late Thursday, with a slight chance mainly along and north of I-64. As this feature departs Thursday night, a cold front will spill south and wash out as it tries to move south. What is left of the boundary could be over the area on Friday leading to a few isolated showers or storms with some weak surface convergence possible. Either way, this shouldn`t be a big deal. High pressure will strengthen into the upcoming weekend, with a return to dry and mild conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Scattered low level clouds and light winds were the weather features of note at TAF issuance. Skies will clear out tonight, and with high pressure building in by 12z, expect areas of fog to form. Visibilities and/or ceilings will likely test airport minimums between 09 and 12z. The fog will burn off by 14z, with a return to VFR by late Monday morning. Winds will light and variable this evening, and should go near calm overnight, as the ridge of high pressure builds in. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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