Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 122138 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 438 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 243 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018 A negatively tilted shortwave trough will push northeast across the region through tonight. An area of low pressure over Tennessee will push northeast across far southeast Kentucky tonight associated with this wave. As the system strengthens, colder air currently off to our west will get pulled east with a changeover from rain to snow this evening. We do lose ice for a short time this evening under the dry slot, so we could see a period of freezing drizzle as temperatures drop to or just below freezing. However, shouldn`t see much impact except for elevated surfaces as ground temperatures are still fairly warm. Ice will be quickly reintroduced into the low level clouds later this evening as the low levels cool off rapidly. This will bring the threat of snow into the area after 6 or 7 pm. Expected snowfall for this event has not changed, but given amounts in the north are close to warning, generally 3 to 4, it would not take much to push us over. Thus, we have coordinated with Charleston and Wilmington to issue a winter storm warning for Fleming county. Still looks to be a borderline warning situation, but close enough to pull the trigger. The rest of the area still looking at a solid 1 to 3 inches of snowfall as the wrap around moisture swings across the area tonight. With temperatures dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s by dawn, icy conditions will develop on untreated roads. Snow will come to an end early Saturday morning, but some flurries or light snow showers could hold on into the afternoon. Temperatures will hold fairly steady through the day with cold advection and cloud cover holding on. We may see clouds hold on through Saturday night and if this is the case, the flurries could continue as well. Will generally stay close to blended guidance for Saturday night lows given the uncertainty with the cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 438 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018 An overall cold period is in store, with an eastern North American trough dominating our weather until late in the week. An upper low is expected to drop south in the trough Sunday and Monday, with an associated surface low sending a cold front through Kentucky late Monday and Monday night. Warm air advection/overrunning along the front should bring clouds and potentially some light snow to the JKL forecast area mainly Monday night into Tuesday. After above freezing temps on Monday, the cold front will send us back into the deep freeze. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night should be in the single digits, and highs Tuesday and Wednesday below freezing. Late in the week the upper trough/low shifts eastward and gets replaced by ridging over the eastern CONUS, with a return of warm air advection and temps expected to climb well above freezing on Friday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 133 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018 Aviation conditions will continue to worsen as we head into the evening hours with IFR ceilings spreading over the area associated with a dry slot of a strengthening system. As the system moves to our north tonight, wrap around moisture will spread across the area with some snowfall expected. Ceilings may begin to lift a bit overnight as drier low level air moves into the area behind the departing system. The clouds may hold on through the day tomorrow with borderline MVFR/VFR conditions continuing through the day. Winds this evening could also get quite gusty with some wind gusts up to 20 knots. Those will subside by daybreak Saturday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-114-116. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ088-107- 109-110-112-113-115-117>120. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ044.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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