Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250540 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1240 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 800 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLAKES AS IT PASSES. THIS WAS ALSO IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN TRENDED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE ONE WAS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. QPF...OF UP TO TWO TENTHS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND ANTICIPATED SNOW RATIOS NEAR 14 TO 1 OR 15 TO 1 FROM 18Z MODEL RUNS AND 21Z SREF AS WELL AS NEW 0Z NAM KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AT THIS TIME. THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN WITH SOME THE 12Z RUNS AND 15Z SREF DATA THAT POINTED TOWARD A CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WHITLEY AND BELL COUNTIES NORTHEAST TOWARD HARLAN OR BELL COUNTIES...BUT THE 21Z SREF HAS CUT THESE BACK TO NEAR ZERO. THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER...FROM BELL COUNTY NORTHEAST TO LETCHER COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF ADJACENT COUNTIES JUST NORTH AND WEST SHOULD GET A SOLID ADVISORY SNOW...OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 3000 FEET MIGHT GET 4 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE. LOCATIONS FROM MONTICELLO TO SOMERSET TO LONDON TO JACKSON TO PAINTSVILLE SHOULD GET AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR NO MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE FAR NW COUNTIES SHOULD PICK UP LESS THAN AN INCH. AGAIN...THESE AMOUNTS COULD GO UP OR DOWN BASED ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT THE CURRENT CONSENSUS PRODUCES THESE NUMBERS AND THE NEW 0Z NAM SUPPORTS THIS. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 WE HAVE PRETTY MUCH ONE ISSUE OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SNOW EVENT FOR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM12...SREF...AND GFS MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH PRECIP ONSET WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AREAL EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE PRECIP ONSET BEGINNING AROUND 0Z THURSDAY IN OUR FAR SOUTH...WITH A RAPID UPTICK IN POPS THROUGH 6Z THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING ANYWHERE FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...UP TO AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POTENTIALLY IN SOME OF OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN OF WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 555 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE FOLLOWING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BEFORE RETREATING NORTH. IN ITS WAKE HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COMMENCE AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF ENERGY STREAMING FROM A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE ENERGY CLUSTERS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AT THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW STARTS TO COME EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LEANING ON THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS WHERE DIFFERENCES EXIST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE DEPARTURE OF ANOTHER SNOW MAKER FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH...AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL TRY TO WARM UP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF A WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE NATION. A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG AND OVER IT. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AT THIS POINT...INITIALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH THE RAINS IN ADDITION TO THE MELTING SNOW PACK. A NEW SFC WAVE WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD HELP DRAG THE FRONT SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY WITH OUR AREA SEEING A BIGGER THREAT FOR OVERRUNNING RAINS AND A FLOOD POTENTIAL TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY NEARBY WITH A LIKELY INCREASING THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS INTO THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THIS PATTERN HOLD HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE IN ORDER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN WHERE A 3 KFT CIG POPS UP BUT OVERALL...CIGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT. THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z INTO THE LOZ...SME...AND JKL AREAS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 03Z TOMORROW NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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