Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 070853 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 353 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY REMAINS NOSED IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...KEEPING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP FOR NOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. ALOFT...AMPLIFYING FLOW IS UNDERWAY...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER OF INTEREST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWIRLING ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH AND ESTABLISHING A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DEEP TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GIVEN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND TO THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE MILD RESPONSE THAT OCCURRED FROM YESTERDAY. THE PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN. WETBULBING WILL BATTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE EASTERN VALLEYS LIKELY DROPPING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE COOP MOS SUGGESTS UPPER 20S FOR LOWS...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A QUICK DROP OFF THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN BROUGHT TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONCE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE FIRST INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BEHIND THIS...BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL GO OVER TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY DUSK MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA INTO MID-WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN. AS SUCH...WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 DWINDLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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