Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201040 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 640 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 640 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Upper level clouds from the remnants of the MCS have been streaming over the southwest portion of the forecast area. These clouds, along with drier air, have been enough to keep the fog at bay across the western half of the area. Intermittent reports of dense fog were noted in the far eastern locations but expect this to lift around 12Z. Other than the morning fog, the weather remains quiet this morning. Refreshed the hourly grids and sent updated to NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Drier air continues to filter into the region early this morning as a frontal boundary washes out to our south. This will allow dew points to lower into the mid and upper 60s, making things slightly more comfortable. However, we won`t see much change in daily temperatures as afternoon highs are expected in the upper 80s and lower 90s both days. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler, in the mid and upper 60s, before returning to the 70s by the end of the work week. The weather will remain dry as high pressure stays in control of eastern Kentucky. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 The driver for the long term forecast will be the continual building of a persistent upper level ridge into the Ohio Valley, enabling the full effects of summer to be felt across the region. This trend of hot, humid weather will continue throughout the weekend as heat indices approach and at times supersede the 100 degree threshold Friday through Sunday. Although current model soundings indicate ample instability throughout the weekend, a strong cap in conjunction with lack of upper level support and deep layer moisture will preclude thunderstorm development Saturday. That being said, a brief reprieve from the heat may be possible Sunday afternoon as moisture advects into the area ahead of a shortwave dipping through the Great Lakes as the cap weakens ever so slightly, allowing for the development of a diurnally driven thunderstorm or two. Towards the beginning of the next week, the persistent ridge will slowly retreat to the southwest supporting a more zonal flow over the northern half of the CONUS. As previously mentioned, a shortwave confined to this zonal regime will develop and intensify over the Great Lakes, supporting a surface low over Michigan tracking along the US-Canada border. The associated cold front is progged to move through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon hours Monday evening, providing the region with its best chance of showers and thunderstorms in the long term as it intrudes on instabilities of around 1500 J/kg. Although a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, abysmal deep layer shear should inhibit severe potential. Following this front, weak cold air advection should provide for a cooling down across the region. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 Drier air, along with upper level clouds from a remnant MCS have kept fog at bay at all TAF sites except SJS this morning. Expect any remaining fog to lift by 12-13Z as the inversion breaks. VFR conditions will then prevail throughout the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure in place. There is potential for fog development towards the end of the forecast period. However, with drier air in place, thinking there will be even less coverage than there was this morning so will keep it out of the TAFS at this time. Winds will be light from the north/northeast.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GOUDEAU/GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JVM

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