Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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492 FXUS63 KJKL 170252 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1052 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1052 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 The forecast remains on track so far tonight. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends, but no major changes to the forecast were necessary. UPDATE Issued at 727 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 Forecast appears to on track so far this evening. Ingested the latest observations into the hourly forecast to establish new trends. Will issue an quick forecast update to remove outdated pre first period from the zone forecast text product. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 Showers continue to push east across eastern Kentucky this afternoon with much of the activity actually showing a slight weakening trend over the past few hours. While a dry wedge is working in from central Kentucky, more showers and storms are starting to move in from the west. However, still quite some distance for this additional activity to travel and it may not make it here to capitalize on present instability. Thus, still expect a gradual decrease in shower coverage heading into the evening hours as the dry wedge works east across the area. A few models show some isolated showers redeveloping late tonight, but not a lot of forcing present except a weak low level jet. Perhaps this would be enough for a few showers to pop up just prior to daybreak. As we head through the day tomorrow, a cold front will push east into the Ohio river valley and bring a line of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky through the evening hours. Models are in pretty good agreement with this activity, so have trended higher with the pops through the evening period. Activity will exit southeast overnight with the front hanging up over the area. However, subsidence behind departing showers/storms will lead very little potential for additional activity, but a few isolated showers would remain possible. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 359 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 The upper levels will be characterized by multiple long wave troughs suppressing the ridging and upper level high well to the south. The first trough will lightly dig into the Ohio Valley with higher influence toward the Great Lakes. This will help swing a cold front toward the region Friday, but this front becomes diffuse as it progresses east. This could leave a boundary near the region and therefore did keep POPs going mainly in the afternoon in the far southeast. The next wave will move through Saturday but the POPs will stay mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor. After this heights rise and we see a break in the weather for most through Monday. Guidance does suggest a small chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday in the north, but most look to be spared for the eclipse at this time. Models are in decent agreement that we begin to suppress heights and develop NW flow toward the end of the period. This will open the door for waves by Tuesday and Wednesday, and right now this looks to be when we see the overall best coverage through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017 Isolated rain showers will move across portions of eastern Kentucky early this evening, but these will quickly dissipate as the sun goes down and heating is lost. The area should be rain free by 1Z or so. The TAF period should start out with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The cloud cover should then gradually increase overnight and through out the day on Thursday, as an area of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approach from the west. By around 21Z on Thursday, SYM and SME can expected numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, as the cold front begins to move across the area. JKL and LOZ should see precipitation about an hour later at 22Z or so. SCT CB and BKN middle level clouds are expected, with based averaging between 3.5 and 8K. Winds should be generally out of the southwest at 5 to 8 KTs. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...AR

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