Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 140 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 Just a quick update to tough up the sky cover and add in the latest T/Td obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 14z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky. This has kept the sky mostly clear overnight and with dewpoints in the low 60s most places allowed for the development of dense fog in the river valleys again this morning. Now that has mostly burned off as seen in the obs and latest GOES 16 imagery. Have updated the forecast to mainly drop the fog mention and also fine tune the sky cover into the afternoon. Temperatures are rebounding into the mid and upper 60s across the area while winds are light and variable. Highs generally in the lower 80s appear on track. PoPs sub 14% today still look in order considering the latest HRRR and other guidance. Did the usual adjustments to the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Freshened HWO and zones have been issued, as well. UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 Freshened up the hourly temperature rise into this morning, otherwise the forecast remains on track, with most fog burning off between 9 and 10 am. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 The latest surface map features high pressure from New England down to the lower Mississippi Valley. Aloft, troughing is ruling across the West, while ridging is found in the East. Another foggy start to the morning will be on tap for eastern Kentucky today. The fog will burn off by the mid-morning hours, with mostly sunny skies then prevailing with highs in the lower 80s. The upper level ridge axis will remain in place across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through early next week, with lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with areas of dense valley fog once again. Monday will feature a few more clouds, with highs similar to today, generally lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 The latest blended model data suggests that eastern Kentucky will see periods of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Saturday. Any storms would occur mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. There will be a couple of days when most or all of the rain will occur along and south of the Mountain Parkway, and a few other days when the showers and storms will be scattered across the entire area. It still appears that temperatures in the extended will be well above normal, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s expected, and nightly lows ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. Winds should be generally light and variable.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 Scattered to broken cumulus at around 5k feet agl will affect the area through the rest of the afternoon before disipating this evening. IFR or worse fog will be seen once again in the valleys between 06 and 12z with some impact expected on the TAF sites, but not quite as bad as this morning. Winds will average below 5 kts through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF

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