Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280635 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED SOUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...THEY HAVE MANAGED TO BUILD INTO THE FAR EAST THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING FROM THESE EASTERN CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MIX OF WEAK CAA AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE RIDGES CAN BE AS COOL AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE SLIGHTLY MILDER. FOR INSTANCE...JKL IS CURRENTLY 19 DEGREES WHILE QUICKSAND IS AT 17 AND SME/LOZ ARE 25 AND 23 RESPECTIVELY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE INTRICACIES THROUGH DAWN. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS. FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH... WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GREIF

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