Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271738 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 138 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Most spots remain sunny this early afternoon hour, but cumulus clouds continue to develop along the TN/VA border as anticipated. Therefore confidence still remains that isolated to scattered storms will have the best chance to develop along and near the high terrain closer to the TN/VA border. Overall timing looks to be around or after 2 to 3 PM for initial storm development based on most of the CAM guidance. Otherwise made some minor changes to deal with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Clouds have clear out this morning and we are left with mostly sunny skies. Otherwise expecting more in the way of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Right now HRRR keeps activity minimal till late afternoon, meanwhile the ARW/NMM want to develop activity perhaps a bit earlier. Overall coverage wise the SSEO data would suggest far SE near the VA border and that seems reasonable given a more orographic lift scenario. Given little if any steering flow based on forecast soundings these would be slow movers but would slowly progress north through the late afternoon and evening. UPDATE Issued at 803 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Have blended early morning obs into the forecast, with no substantive changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 We remain in a stagnant pattern which is slow to change. Upper level ridging was over the southeast ConUS, and a large trough over the western ConUS. Near the periphery of the ridge, we are seeing rounds of convection at times. Convection tends to build once daytime destabilization occurs, but may also occur in a less intense fashion during the night and morning. Features responsible for focusing convection are subtle, making detailed forecasting difficult. That being said, have made a best attempt at it using a blend of model solutions. Light showers ongoing over the northern part of the JKL forecast area early this morning shouldn`t amount to much. Models suggest convection will initiate with destabilization over the higher terrain of the Appalachians today, and then propagate northward in weak steering currents during the late afternoon and evening. This activity dies out during the night. Next, a plume of deeper moisture rotating around the large scale trough to our west will makes its way east across KY tonight and Saturday. This is the feature favored for our next round of convective development, with the best chance on Saturday being in our northern and western counties. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 At upper levels, a shortwave trough is expected to lift out of the plains into the Great Lakes region Sunday. Energy from this shortwave trough should move into the region, bringing the potential for more widespread showers over the weekend. Interestingly enough, the first tropical system of the hurricane season appears to form just off the carolina coast and move onshore on Sunday as well. Due to a high block in the Atlantic, this subtropical low will be stagnant over the Carolinas through the first half of the new work week. Eastern Kentucky will likely be stuck between active weather over the plains and rain along the East Coast. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible almost every day with peak heating. Tuesday looks to be the driest day as high pressure builds over Kentucky. Another shortwave trough and low pressure system embedded in the northern stream is progged to traverse the northern CONUS during the second half of the week with energy potentially extending southward and moving across our area. This system may be enough to kick the subtropical system out of the Carolinas, or could ingest its energy and bring it towards our region. Either way, there is still too much model to model discontinuity regarding these features to have much confidence in the forecast. The best confidence belongs to the weekend period where both GFS and ECMWF models show more frequent showers as the upper trough passes by to our northwest. Temperatures will be more summer-like throughout the extended period with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. The normal high temperature for this time of year is in the upper 70s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 All sites this early afternoon hour are remaining VFR with some scattered CU across the eastern KY. We are seeing some isolated showers developing along and near the VA border this afternoon and this will become the aviation concern this afternoon. Right now the issue is the isolated to scattered nature leads to VCTS confidence at best. Most sites are not expected to get nearby storms till generally after 20Z to 21Z. This could lead to brief lowering in CIGS and VIS under heavier storms. Overnight the concern becomes patchy valley fog and any location that gets enhanced moisture from storms. Right now kept most sites VFR but southern sites of SME/LOZ did add MVFR VIS. Given no steering flow and high pressure no issues with winds are expected.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...DJ

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