Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230724 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 224 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 223 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 UPDATED TO REFINE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND WILL BRUSH ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD DEFINITELY BE MORE TO THE WEST PER RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT OBS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 SHOWERS WERE MOVING NE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THEY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE EASTERN TIP OF THE STATE. EASTERN VALLEYS WERE NEAR FORECAST LOWS AT LATE EVENING...AND HAVE GONE A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THERE FOR FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPDATES INVOLVE POP ON TUESDAY AND A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL OUTWEIGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIP IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND HAVE LOWERED THE POP THERE. EVENTUALLY...FORCING WITH THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. GFS MOS SHOWS PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AS HIGH AS 50-60 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THUNDER HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TONIGHT OVER WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 WITH SHOWERS HAVING ARRIVED FROM TN...UPDATED TO BRING A POP INTO THE FORECAST EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 TODAY HAS BROUGHT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KY TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE TRACKING SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS DO WEAKEN THIS AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER DID OPT TO AT LEAST INTRODUCE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE MORE PRECIP OVERNIGHT ALONG MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SURGES NORTH. A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND AID IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TRANSITION IN LIFTING MECHANISMS TUESDAY AS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND ENERGY/LIFT MOVES NE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO THERE COULD BE SOME REASONABLE HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY. ANOTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT TEMPS. RIGHT NOW GOING WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER IF SOME CLEARING IS SEEN YOU COULD SEE HIGHER TEMPS. THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO START OUT ACROSS THE CONUS. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH AN AREA OF INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...ALTHOUGH THESE LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO A FEW HOUR WINDOW AHEAD OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. COLD AIR/ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK FEEBLE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS HEIGHTS MODERATE AND THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TURNS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE DISAGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A MORE TRANSIENT SYSTEM. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE IT TENDS TO HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY THIS FAR OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER... WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALOFT ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 223 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN WAVES. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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