Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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965 FXUS63 KJKL 062040 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 MSAS WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE IN FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NOW SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOUR. THIS WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN KY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. NOW HAVING SAID THAT...UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS. OVERALL WE ALREADY HAD THIS THOUGHT SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF IMPENDING DISTURBANCE. RIGHT NOW NOT THINKING THIS WILL KILL TEMPS MUCH DUE TO THE LATER ONSET AND SW FLOW. THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SE ON SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. OVERALL TRIED TO BETTER TIME OUT THIS SYSTEM AND RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN...MIX IF RAIN/SNOW...AND SNOW. RIGHT NOW BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET BULBING AT SOME POINT WILL KEEP THE ONSET OF THIS RAIN BEFORE SEEING A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND DAWN MONDAY. LOOKING AT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONSET FOR MOST JUST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND MIXING POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 AVAILABLE SHORTLY...
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5 TO 6 KFT DECK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...DJ

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