Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 212020 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15 MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH 60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 10Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGES WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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