Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240928 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 428 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE AS MESONET SITES AT WHITLEY CITY AND BARBOURVILLE ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A DUSTING IN BARBOURVILLE THIS MORNING. ALSO MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO ARE BOTH REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS HOUR. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING SO LEANED TOWARD IT TO GET A BETTER POP TREND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE AT THIS POINT THINK THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND SPS PLACEMENT WILL HANDLE THIS. THAT SAID DID UPDATE POPS/QPF/SNOW TO HANDLE THESE REPORTS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE THIS MORNING AS DRYER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID DO STILL THINK THE AIRMASS RIGHT ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING. STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN TN VALLEY AND NE TN ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING WHERE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED. OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDED WEST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE VA BORDER. ALSO SHOULD MENTION THE HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SAME REGION OF CONCERN. STILL OPTED TO ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE SHARP CUTOFF ON MUCH OF EASTERN KY WILL IN FACT NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM BESIDES CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WOULD SUGGEST ONLY FLURRIES AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW LATE...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THIS NEXT WAVE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH VFR FOR TAF SITES ACROSS EASTERN KY. A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE TN VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD LOWER CLOUD DECK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR THE PRECIP FROM THIS WILL SPREAD AND WHAT AFFECT THE DRYER AIRMASS WILL HAVE ON THIS. RIGHT NOW HAVE A MVFR DECK MAKING IT UP TO LOZ...JKL AND SJS BY 10Z WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THESE SITES. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT IT VCSH AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087- 088-118. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...DJ

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