Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220026 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 826 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING. LAST OF THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS SLIPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. A GOOD PUSH OF CLEARING IS STILL TO OUR NORTH...BUT SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS. UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED TO REDUCE THE FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT SUPPORT MUCH FOG. MEANWHILE...THE DRY AIR MAY NOT SURGE INTO THE CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY...SO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING RIDGING AND RESULTANT CLEARING IN CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN IN...THESE CLEARING SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT MAX TEMPS DOWN FROM THE DAY AND THEREFORE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S LATE TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S UPSTREAM...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATE TONIGHT TO THEIR DEW POINTS IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS DAWN TONIGHT. WILL BE PUTTING THIS IN THE HWO AND ALLOWING THE EVENING OR EVEN THE NIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF AN SPS IS NEEDED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE AREA NEVER CLEARS OUT AND STAYS OVERCAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT WILL GO WITH THE CLEARING SCENARIO LATE TONIGHT. THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. ALSO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE WEST...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND WHAT THE SREF AND NAM ARE ADVERTISING...ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR MASS MODIFIES AND MIN TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL. CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER NEW ENGLAND COAST LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SITS OVER THE 4 CORNER STATES IN THE SW CONUS...FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN A RIDGING PATTERN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...PROMOTING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD...SO TO WILL THE RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY...BEST RIDGING WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN GULF STATES SHIFTING EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE UP ALONG THE RIDGE...AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. WHILE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE A BIT MORE DISPLACED...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY THESE SHORTWAVES. IF THE ECMWF AND NAM PAN OUT...SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD POP UP AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A QUITE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME FOR ANY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO PAN OUT SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH INCREASED POPS BUT GENERALLY SUB SLIGHT CHANCES. OTHERWISE... THE GFS TAKES THE LEAD ON BRINGING IN THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP FASTER...PUSHING IT THROUGH AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES...AND THE FACT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...DIDN/T DEVIATE MUCH FROM A MODEL BLEND OF THE TWO. BOTH OF WHICH CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONCE THE RAIN DOES MOVE IN...PWATS INCREASE QUITE QUICKLY AND REMAIN 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS COULD BE QUITE A WET SCENARIO...AND MAYBE SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT BEST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GENERALLY...WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS EVENT...GIVING LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER...SPEED SHEER...OR EVEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THIS IS STILL FAIRLY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH PARAMETERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...AND WITH WARM SEASON RAIN PROCESSES AND FORCING ALOFT...WOULDN/T RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES INTO THE MID 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. AND WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS WILL DISPLAY A GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT PATTERN THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. ONCE THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ONLY BE HAMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...DROPPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSIDERABLY WARMER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS

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