Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171140 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 640 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 640 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 Isolated rain showers will be moving into the southwestern portion of the forecast area early this morning. The forecast is still on track with this for the most part, so major update is required at this time. The latest obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to eastern Kentucky today, as it makes it way across the Tennessee valley. There may be a slushy mix of rain and snow along the leading edge of the precipitation this morning, as it moves from south to north across eastern Kentucky. There may be some light slushy accumulations in isolated locations, but all in all the snow should have very few if any impacts. The snow should be gone by around noon today, as temperatures will have warmed well above freezing by then. The rain should taper off quickly this afternoon and evening, and should be gone by around dawn on Sunday. Another weather system may bring a second round of rain to the area by early Sunday evening. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal today, with highs in the low to mid 40s on tap across the area. Tonight`s lows will likely be above normal, due to the influence of cloud cover and a brief period of southwest flow. A warm up is in store for Sunday, as winds shift around to the southeast and south, which could lead to some downslope warming during the day across eastern Kentucky. We should see highs on Sunday rise into the mid to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 410 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 The models are in good agreement with the broad scale pattern aloft through the extended portion of the forecast. They all depict a semi-static ridge through the southeast holding broad and deep southwest flow in place over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This ridge will shift a bit through the seven day forecast but its influence will be dominant for the weather across Kentucky. Specifically, its burgeoning heights on Monday off the coast of Florida will support higher heights for Kentucky through Wednesday. The better energy lifts out of the area initially Sunday night with the rising heights and as a result, through Wednesday morning, the mid level energy stream remains too far north to have a big influence on the convection chances for our area. This changes later Wednesday with a better push of energy into the state associated with a weakening trough sliding through the Ohio Valley. After this point, the model variance increases with the ECMWF holding the southeast ridge onshore Florida compared to the weaker and more displaced to the southeast GFS. While the model agreement suffers at the end of the period it remains clear that eastern Kentucky will be in a wet and very warm pattern through the entire latter parts of the forecast. A general model blend looks reasonable for the extended. Sensible weather will feature a drying trend for Sunday night as a warm front lifts through and pulls away to the north. Mostly dry weather should commence through early Wednesday under ridging aloft and sfc high pressure off to the east. The pressure pattern will continue to support ample southwest winds bringing in warm and moist air from the south. This air mass will be activated on Wednesday as a sfc cold front approaches from the northwest with a potential for thunder. This boundary looks like it will stall out over the area and we could see another surge of moisture and lift develop for Kentucky into Thursday - prolonging the concerns for excessive rainfall well into the upcoming week. Another wave will then be possible for Friday extending this warm and wet period. Did make some changes to the lows each night of the long term portion of the forecast for terrain distinctions given a prolonged environment favorable for ridge to valley temp splits. As for PoPs, did beef them up for that latter wave from the ECMWF on Thursday that may not be as well represented in the model blend. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2018 MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this morning. Conditions will be at their worst once widespread light to moderate rain showers begin to affect the airports. The rain will begin to taper off this afternoon and this evening, and should be out of the area by around dawn on Sunday. The rain should move away from the TAF sites between 0 and 4Z tonight. Winds should be generally light and variable.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through this evening for KYZ080-084>088-110-113-115>120. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...AR

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