Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230115 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 815 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 815 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPDATES INVOLVE POP ON TUESDAY AND A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL OUTWEIGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIP IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND HAVE LOWERED THE POP THERE. EVENTUALLY...FORCING WITH THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. GFS MOS SHOWS PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AS HIGH AS 50-60 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THUNDER HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TONIGHT OVER WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 WITH SHOWERS HAVING ARRIVED FROM TN...UPDATED TO BRING A POP INTO THE FORECAST EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 TODAY HAS BROUGHT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KY TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY WE ARE TRACKING SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS DO WEAKEN THIS AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER DID OPT TO AT LEAST INTRODUCE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE MORE PRECIP OVERNIGHT ALONG MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SURGES NORTH. A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND AID IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TRANSITION IN LIFTING MECHANISMS TUESDAY AS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND ENERGY/LIFT MOVES NE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO THERE COULD BE SOME REASONABLE HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY. ANOTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT TEMPS. RIGHT NOW GOING WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER IF SOME CLEARING IS SEEN YOU COULD SEE HIGHER TEMPS. THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO START OUT ACROSS THE CONUS. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH AN AREA OF INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...ALTHOUGH THESE LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO A FEW HOUR WINDOW AHEAD OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. COLD AIR/ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK FEEBLE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS HEIGHTS MODERATE AND THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TURNS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE DISAGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A MORE TRANSIENT SYSTEM. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE IT TENDS TO HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY THIS FAR OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER... WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALOFT ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF MVFR AT TIMES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE SW. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT SME AND SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF VCSH OVERNIGHT GIVEN THAT MODELS KEEP TRENDING TOWARD SOME SLIGHT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE TAFS AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ

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