Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 282108 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 408 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 408 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016 The short term discussion will be issued shortly. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 408 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016 Widespread showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Wednesday morning downstream of the stacked low pressure system across the upper Midwest. A 30-40 knot low level jet and nearby approach of the right entrance region of a 150 knot upper jet will continue to result in abundant lift across eastern Kentucky. This energy aloft will combine with a plethora of gulf moisture to produce rainfall amounts likely in excess of one inch across southeastern Kentucky as winds gradually veer south/southwest in wake of a departing surface low/trough Wednesday morning. Rainfall will end from west to east through the day as the trough axis shifts east and drier air oozes in along with cooler air behind a cold front. Cyclonic flow in place from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes, in association with the eastward shifting upper low, will keep a cold dome and lingering stratus locked in place through the end of the week and possibly into the first half of the weekend as high pressure slowly builds in from the west. After temperatures making it into the low 60s Wednesday, high temperatures Thursday through Saturday will likely only top out in the 40s with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Rain chances then look to increase by the latter portions of the upcoming weekend as energy currently near the Gulf of Alaska digs south across the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Still a great deal of uncertainty in how the synoptic pattern will materialize beyond this, with solutions ranging from one strengthening system spreading abundant precipitation across the eastern CONUS late this weekend, to a weak shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley with a cutoff low slowly migrating northeastward out of Chihuahua early next week. Evolution and track of this system will also determine the potential for any wintry precipitation for the first week of December.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016 VFR conditions will continue through this evening. However, increasing winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue to be of concern through the afternoon and evening. High winds should begin mixing down to the surface through 21Z, generally out of the S, with sustained 10 to 20 knots winds and gusts between 20 and 30 knots at the TAF sites. Highest winds will occur just ahead of the cold front generally between 22Z and 0Z. Once the cold front passes, the winds will remain generally southerly, but should quickly diminish throughout the remainder of the overnight. Rain will accompany the winds, moving into the western most TAF sites (KSME/KLOZ) late this afternoon, and then quickly spreading eastward across the other TAF sites. This will be a wetting rain, possibly moderate enough at times to reduce visibilities to MVFR. There is a slight chance that some thunder could occur during the heaviest rains, but confidence was too low to include at any particular TAF site. Cigs are also expected to drop overnight, forecasted to fall to alternate minimums between 9 and 12Z (earliest west). Generally lighter SW winds and clearing conditions are expected started Tuesday morning and continuing through the remainder of the TAF period.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016 Have opted to upgrade the fire weather watch to a red flag warning. Models are continuing to be too aggressive on moisture recovery today, especially in the east with wind trajectories off the high terrain and not favorable for moisture advection. Thus, there should be a period this afternoon or evening where the low RH overlaps with the increasing wind speeds. While we won`t mix that deep, Winds are so strong just off the surface that it won`t take much to bring down some good wind speeds. Also, went a little later into the evening with the red flag warning as low RH`s and even stronger winds may linger well into the evening. Rain is still expected to move in after 9 pm and should bring a quick increase in moisture with the onset. One other thing to watch is for winds to pick up as the shower activity moves into the area late this evening, so a brief period of very gusty winds, coupled with the already dry conditions could create a dangerous setup for any ongoing wildfires. Fire weather concerns erode for the remainder of the week, with lots of rain in the forecast. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ044-050-051- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-108-111>118-120. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for KYZ088-104-106- 107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...JMW FIRE WEATHER...KAS

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