Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 040836 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 336 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ON TAP FOR TODAY...WITH THE FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO STILL ON TRACK IS OUR WINTER STORM...WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NASTY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BE EXPERIENCING SOME FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY 8Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE AREA OF WINTRY PRECIP AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...OUR FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. THE MODELS WERE STILL IN A BIT DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE WILL BE WITH THIS EVENT...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ICE TOTALS FOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT FOR MOST OF OUR COUNTIES...AS THE LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...THIS INCLUDES THE NAM12...GFS...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE SNOW WILL LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER ON THURSDAY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE ABOUT AN INCH MORE OF SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. OVERALL THE WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD. SEE THE UPDATED WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT FOR FORECAST SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WAYNE COUNTY. IN FACT...AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS AFD...MONTICELLO WAS REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 62...LONDON 62...AND THE WHITESBURG MESONET SITE REPORTING 62 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL STEADILY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO INVADE THE AREA...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SEEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS AT THIS POINT LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BE BELOW FREEZING. OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL BE COLDEST LONGEST...AND WILL THEREFORE SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM THE UPCOMING WINTER STORMS. OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW AS WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS OUR FAR NORTHEAST...WITH THE FAR EAST PICKING LESS SNOW AND A BIT MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS ON THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PAINTSVILLE TO NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY TO LONDON TO EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS COLD...WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 MOST OF THE TAF SITES WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS JKL...WHICH WAS SOCKED IN WITH THICK FOG AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND IN EFFECT WASHES OUT THE FOG. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE SHORT PERIODS OF IFR IF THICKER FOG IS ABLE TO FORM OR DURING INTENSE BRIEF DOWN POURS OF RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM UNTIL AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...IT APPEARS THAT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND RAIN BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z. GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE CHALLENGING AT OUR AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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