Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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324 FXUS63 KJKL 280615 AAD AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 215 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO TREND THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS. POPS WERE CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 MAIN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ENCROACHING ON THE AREA AS OF 02Z. THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSED CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLIER THIS EVENING SO ONLY EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE LINE IS ANTICIPATED AS IT CROSSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST GRIDS...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...AND REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 UPDATED SKY AND POP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO REFRESHED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL BUT THINKING MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN SUB SEVERE. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A WESTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE WHAT BRINGS US OUR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR LIMITED...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY...IF NOT SOONER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED BY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 TONIGHT...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TOMORROW NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL BE UNDER A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH JUST LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT SET UP WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS FARTHER NORTH. EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAVE WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LACK OF FORCING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO. WITH THIS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEM TO FEATURE A DIURNAL LIKE TREND WITH THE MAX CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LIKELY JUST MARGINAL OR STRONG STORMS AT THE VERY MOST EXPECTED. AS WELL...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS WITH PREVIOUS STORMS WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE ALREADY LACK OF INSTABILITY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ANY CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THIS...WILL RESULT IN A COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE GFS DRIES OUT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE EURO KEEP PRECIP AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WAS DISPLAYED AS WELL WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING PRECIP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND GENERALLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR WITH VIS FOR A BRIEF TIME DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE. THIS SHOULD AFFECT JKL AND SJS INITIALLY WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BRINING MVFR AT TIMES TO LOZ...SME...AND SYM MAINLY THROUGH 8Z. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY JKL AND SJS THROUGH AS LATE AS THE 18Z TO 0Z PERIOD. THIS CONVECTION COULD BRING VIS AND OR CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD SOUTHERLY INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY FROM ABOUT 18Z ON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JP

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