Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 110541 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1241 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 710 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SINCE THEY ARE BECOMING ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THE EAST...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR EXTENDED TIME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ABOVE THE COLD SFC TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LED TO SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGERED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FROM JKL ON EAST. THE SNOW ADVISORIES WERE KEPT IN PLACE THROUGH 6 PM IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WHILE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE...ON PACE TO SET A RECORD FOR A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE HERE AT JKL. MEANWHILE... DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS AS WINDS CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ADDING TO THE CHILL. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH AND RETREATS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE KENTUCKY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK BATCH OF ENERGY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND COMING TO AN END INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR A CHILLY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BY DAWN WITH ONLY A LIMITED DIFFERENCE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES. SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING ON THURSDAY BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BY DAWN FRIDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SOME TERRAIN/SNOW DEPTH DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 416 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARKED ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION AS WE START THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND STRONG CAA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO OUR NORTH. ALL MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING THE SW SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IMPACTING KY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE PEGGED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEG A QUICK FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE CWA AS IT PASSES OVER. WHILE ENOUGH COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW AT ONSET...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH NEAR- SURFACE WARMING THAT SNOW MAY BECOME/MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...LIGHT PRECIP WILL LEND ITSELF TO LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND PULLING YET MORE CANADIAN COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS EASTERN KY DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN OVER KY...BUT WILL LESSON IN INTENSITY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY...IN MID 20S TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR FAIR AND WARMING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS AND STARTS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. OUR LOCATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...PROMOTING MORE WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN TN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...REACHING CENTRAL TN BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN KY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY QUICKLY EXITING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF. GRANTED...THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE CURRENT GFS MODEL TRENDS. GIVEN THE STRONG WAA...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING /IN THE MID 30S/ BY MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WHILE THERE WILL BE GOOD PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT ONSET TO START AS SNOW...MIXING WITH OR BECOMING ALL RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THEN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING ON HIGHEST QPF/POPS IS QUITE A BIT UNCERTAIN STILL THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF NOW...STORM TOTAL SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4 INCHES FOR THE 2 DAY TIME PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT LOZ AND SME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THOSE AIRPORTS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND THE SNOW. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...BKN TO OVC AT TIMES...SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 15 OR 16Z AS A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR

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