Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161221 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 821 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSSED ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 MAIN ACTION THIS MORNING REMAINS CENTERED AROUND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THE DRIZZLE THREAT WILL ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TODAY...AND WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY...GOING TO GO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING THINGS OUT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. GOING TO ADD A MENTION INTO THE HWO FOR THE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WEDNESDAY...SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN...HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 70 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER A CHILLY START WHERE VALLEYS MAY START THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND OFF THE WEST COAST. THESE FEATURES GENERALLY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING SETTING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY...AND LIKELY ECLIPSING NORMALS BY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY MODIFICATION WITH THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM FORTHCOMING FROM THE MODELS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. RIGHT NOW...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE BEYOND THAT DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 AN EXITING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IFR STRATUS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINSIHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IFR STRATUS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TOWARDS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...EXPECT AT LEAST IFR OR WORSE FOG TO TAKE HOLD BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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