Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241603 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1103 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM IN/OH BORDER DOWN THROUGH NEAR CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH BWG...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WEST OF SDF. PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FILLING IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST AS IT MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY...MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING ALOFT. SPC STILL HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE INTENSE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL IN THE HWO. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AS SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO GO UP. THEY ARE NOW OVER 10KFT. THUS...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO COME WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR AREA. SHOULD WARM UP NICELY GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LIMITED LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE US GET EVEN WARMER THAN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY REFLECTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND WILL END UP OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN AFTER A BRIEF LULL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HRRR AND RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LIFT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY 9 OR 10 AM...WITH ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH THE MIDDAY LULL IN PRECIPITATION...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR ONE MORE DAY. FINALLY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH THOUGH...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES...WE MAY GENERATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...AND STRONG 850MB WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTIVE SUPPORT FOR WINDS...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT 40+ MPH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL FARTHER SOUTH...BUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER ALSO SEEMS IN ORDER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AT 850MB. BEST THREAT FOR THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AFTER 17Z AND BEFORE 03Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL QUITE DOWN SOME THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL STAY MILD ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN...THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW CHANCES. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ALIGN GOOD ENOUGH TONIGHT WE COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET LATE TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT WE SHOULD DEFINITELY SEE A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SO PLAN TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 30S ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO EJECT FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BEGIN THE START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. OVER TIME...A RATHER BROAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES AND THEN EAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL WITH THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN WEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SFC WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY SLOWER BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND IS ALSO STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LAST SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA TUE OR WED. DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLDER AIR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WE HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF RUN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SUPPORT A WET END TO THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN FAVORS A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THU NIGHT AS SKIES WILL HAVE CLEARED OR SHOULD BE CLEARING AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER MILD DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR MILDER LOWS ON FRI NIGHT...BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT. SATURDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION A GENERALLY NW TO SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 DRY AIR HAS INVADED THE AREA THANKS TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS HAS PUSHED CEILINGS UP TO OVER 10KFT. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWER CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT BLOWS ACROSS HERE TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...KAS

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