Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250614 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 214 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 213 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017 Surface high pressure ridging into our region from the west, underneath a large scale eastern CONUS trough, will result in fair weather and below normal temps for the next couple of days. With mixing today, dew points will probably drop to the upper 40s in some locations this afternoon. After highs only in the upper 70s, this will set us up for a cool night, with some of the colder valleys potentially dipping below 50. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 346 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Upper level cyclonic flow will continue to hold strong from the Northwestern Passages into the Gulf of Mexico early in the week, keeping below normal temperatures in the offing. Surface high pressure building into the mid-Mississippi Valley will bring a secondary shot of cooler air into eastern Kentucky, keeping high temperatures in the mid 70s with overnight lows in the low-mid 50s. An upper impulse swinging through the Great Lakes Monday will be followed by another more subtle wave approaching out of the Midwest into the evening and overnight hours. Moisture profiles currently look adequate enough to at least warrant slight chance PoPs given the presence of upper forcing. Will have to continue monitoring moisture availability without any real semblance of return flow into eastern Kentucky, but would believe some top-down moistening will be in store as the forcing draws nearer. MUCAPE looks rather anemic as expected, so kept thunder mention confined to along the Virginia border early Tuesday afternoon given enough moisture/lift remain in place at that time. Another surge of cooler air will again keep temperatures confined to the 70s. Following a ridge/valley temperature split Wednesday morning underneath the influence of surface ridging, a warming trend will ensue for mid-late week as temperatures rebound toward the 80 degree mark. Shower/thunderstorm chances will creep back into the picture Thursday in the Cumberland Valley in the presence of better return flow and storms propagating northeastward after being orographically induced along the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures back in the mid 80s with dewpoints surging through the 60s will reintroduce summer, with this type of airmass looking to maintain itself into the weekend. Shower/storm chances will increase Friday into the weekend as eastern Kentucky remains immersed in southwest flow. Chances would be further increased depending on how northern stream energy evolves, particularly in terms of a deeper system and potential subsequent frontal boundary nearby. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017 The most fog prone valleys may have some visibility restrictions around dawn. TAF sites are not expected to be affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds of 10 kts or less are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...HAL

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