Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231738 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 138 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 138 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Diurnally driven cumulus field has developed east of I-75 on the backside of a slow moving upper low across the mid-Atlantic coast. Will still see plenty of sunshine in conjunction with warming temperatures aloft to spell afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 244 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Early this morning, a trough over the Canadian Maritimes continues to pull further on off to the northeast as the southern end of the trough has closed off in response to this and shortwaves that dropped south across the Great Lakes, Appalachians and Mid Atlantic States on Sunday. This closed low is meandering over southern VA and northeast NC and clouds around the western edge of this circulation are mostly east of the region although a few of these have affected locations as far west as the Big Sandy Region over the past few hours. The axis of a mid and upper level ridge extends from Mexico to the Arklatex region to the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a trough encompassed much of the Western US and Canada and into the Plains. At the sfc, a low pressure system extended from the Canadian Maritimes south and south southwest off the Eastern Seaboard and then into South FL. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure extended from Ontario across the Central Great Lakes and south into the MS Valley region. A drier airmass is working into the Ohio Valley at this time. Valley fog has formed across the region and in some non valley locations nearer to the WV border where rain was observed on Sunday. The Upper level low will meander a bit further southeast before turning north off the Mid Atlantic States and track toward Cape Cod in response to a trough moving from central into Eastern Canada. Meanwhile the axis of the relatively narrow ridge will shift slowly east through the period and start to shift east of the area by the end of the period. This ridge will also flatten as well as the trough moves across Canada and shortwaves eject northeast toward the area from the trough over the Western Conus into the Plains. With the mid and upper level ridge dominating and sfc high pressure in place, but moving east of the area on Tue a period of drier weather which has been rather rare so far this May is expected. Rain has been recorded at Jackson on 18 of the 22 days so far this month. The drier weather should linger until about midweek. Valley fog formation will be monitored for the remainder of the night and highlighting it in an SPS and Graphical Nowcast may be needed over the next few hours. After the valley fog lifts and dissipates early this morning, cu should develop by the midday to early afternoon hours, especially across eastern sections closer to the Upper Low. The fog will probably linger the longest in valleys nearer to the VA border where rain was observed on Sunday. However, with high pressure dominating, dry weather is expected for today. Temperatures should average about the same as highs on Sunday, perhaps a degree warmer in some locations. Fog should be less prevalent tonight after a day of drying in all locations. At this time, we are expecting it to be confined to the river valleys. A ridge/valley temperature split is anticipated again tonight, likely a couple of degrees wider than this morning. Valley locations in the east should reach the mid to upper 40s while ridges bottom out in the mid 50s. Temperatures will moderate to above normal levels on Tuesday, a change from what has occurred so for much of the month of May. The highs at the Jackson and London airports will likely reach 80 or above for only the fourth time so far this month. A few cumulus should again develop, but should be even flatter than today due to a subsidence inversion descending. High clouds may increase late on Tuesday in the west in advance of an approaching shortwave trough as the axis of the upper ridge shifts to the east of the area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 332 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 The models were not in the best of agreement in the extended, with timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF models, along with differences in onset of precipitation and areal coverage of precipitation associated with weather systems toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. That being said, decided to go with 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and storms across eastern Kentucky from Tuesday night on through the weekend. This was done to account for each of the aforementioned models different takes on precipitation timing and coverage through out the week. Temperatures during the extended look to be well above normal, with daily readings maxing out in the 80s across the board. Overnight lows should only be falling into the 60s most nights across the area this week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Vfr conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period as this afternoon`s cumulus field remains scattered and above 3000 feet. Patchy valley fog is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning, but this should remain confined to deeper valleys outside of Taf sites. Light winds at or below 6 knots will prevail out of the northeast today before veering south or southeasterly tonight and southwesterly tomorrow.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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