Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251150 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 750 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS USING THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BELOW THE INVERSION. AS IS TYPICAL... THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION. JUST A HINT OF VALLEY FOG IS NOTED IN THE MONTICELLO OBSERVATION AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEEP... AND CLOSED...LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF LOW HEIGHTS WHILE WEAK PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVE BY AT MID LEVELS IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW. GIVEN THE MINUSCULE MODEL SPREAD WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12. CAPITAL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER KENTUCKY AND KEEP THE BULK OF ANY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW...TO A MINIMUM. HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT NIGHT...LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR MAY SET A RECORD LOW TONIGHT AT JKL...CURRENTLY A MILD 58 DEGREES FROM 1984...BUT PROBABLY LOZ/S 46 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1966 WILL STAY OUT OF REACH. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEN EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD... IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE US WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW TO USHER IN LL MOISTURE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP WE COULD GET. SO FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. THIS IS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION... TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THE PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH FURTHER BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFFECTING THE SME SITE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 13Z. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO JUST SME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF

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