Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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388 FXUS63 KJKL 210622 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 122 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 There have been enough breaks in the clouds over eastern Kentucky to cool many of the valleys into the middle and upper 30s while ridges are running about 10 degrees warmer. Have updated the sky cover in the grids for this along with temperatures and dewpoints through the night. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshened ZFP. UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 23z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching from the west pushing high pressure out of the area to the east. This pattern is one of warm advection and is effectively eliminating much of the remaining snow cover over eastern Kentucky as temperatures have soared into the upper 40s and lower 50s. This is despite the ample multi-level cloud cover today - aided by southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Meanwhile dewpoints are running in the upper 30s to lower 40s most places. All the light returns seen on the regional radars have been well to the north and west of the CWA so far this evening, but do expect more activity encroaching later tonight as the low pressure area gets a bit closer. Have adjusted the forecast mainly to adjust temperatures a bit warmer through the evening and overnight per the latest conditions and guidance. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 249 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 Current conditions across the OH Valley feature cloud cover developing and moving into eastern Kentucky from the west. Southwest flow continues to advect warm air into the area this afternoon with some spots warming into the middle 50s for highs today. Cloud cover will continue to thicken heading into tonight. Heading into tonight, with low level moisture on the increase, some rain will eventually develop into our area mainly in the north as the next system develops out in the central Plains. By the day on Sunday, a present but somewhat shallow moisture layer will keep instances of rain over the area through the day. The boundary in the form of a warm front finally lifts north of the area taking the rainfall with it. With this, the warm sector settles into the area for Sunday night with a continued inversion at 700mb. Thus will keep Sunday night with above normal low temps and dry as the cold front will not approach the area until Monday morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 340 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Monday with an active progressive pattern in place. A well developed closed low crosses the central Plains into the Mid MS Valley during the day on Monday. During this time, a cold front crosses Kentucky into the eastern portion of the state. Strong low level winds with this approaching front will make for gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph possibly during the day on Monday and into Monday night. Instability will be at a minimum as well with showers expected to move into the area Monday morning and continue into Monday night. The amount of dry air in place may keep precip from developing into the area until the afternoon in some eastern locations. Given the overall dry pattern, rainfall totals at this point look to be less than a half an inch. Cold frontal passage will likely occur Tuesday morning. Post frontal winds look to be strong as well with some continued 30 mph winds possible. Unlike previous air masses following passage, this air mass lacks the extreme cold the previous ones have and a change over to snow may only happen on top of Black Mountain. In fact, lows on Wednesday morning will only drop into the mid 20s for lows and highs on Wednesday being right around average in the mid 40s. High pressure settles into the area by Wednesday and stays in place through the end of the period with temps being right around normal, if not slightly above. Forecast concerns seem to be with the onset of rainfall on Monday with the dry low levels to overcome. Any delay will cut down on rainfall totals. At this point, the only concerning weather seems to be with the wind potential Monday afternoon through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2018 Mainly low end VFR ceilings are expected through the period, although MVFR ceilings or lack of ceilings may also occur at times. A few light showers may also occur, especially in the morning. Winds will generally be from the south to southwest at 10 kts or less.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...HAL

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