Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311944 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIPS SOUTH.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JVM

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