Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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893 FXUS63 KJKL 201723 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 123 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1112 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 Not much to update in the forecast this morning. The latest obs were ingested into the forecast grids to freshen up the data there. Also sent out updated zone forecast text product now that fog has finally dissipated across the area. UPDATE Issued at 758 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 No substantive changes were made. Early morning obs have been blended into the daytime forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 340 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 Ridging at the surface and aloft over the eastern CONUS will provide mild and dry weather with clear to partly cloudy skies through the period. High clouds will increase by the end of the period as the upper level ridge creeps to the east. Seasonal valley fog is expected during the early morning and late night hours. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 The extended forecast period begins on Saturday night with a pattern in the process of changing as high pressure anchored into the central Appalachians will finally begin to slip east. A deepening longwave trough will begin to dig into the southeast CONUS as the high exits to the east with return flow setting up. This will draw significant moisture northward ahead of the developing cold front. Models have been rather consistent with the large plume of moisture being drawn northward. Thus, have inherited categorical pops for the Sunday night through Monday night timeframe from the super blend and will keep these values. The front lifts northeast through KY by Tuesday evening. The air mass behind this front will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. Post frontal troughs will keep a period of cooler temperatures and lingering showers through Wednesday. The colder air in place will mean low temperatures dropping into the mid 30s for lows Thursday morning. For this, have added some frost in the forecast for the extended. Overall, a cooler pattern is on the horizon for next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 Fog will affect valley locations and locations near bodies of water late tonight through early tomorrow morning. The latest conditions and model data both seem to indicate that any fog that forms should be quite suppressed and confined to valley floors across the area. Mostly clear skies and very light winds will be on tap as well. VFR conditions should prevail at all five TAF sites through the end of the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.