Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230020 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE 70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JJ

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