Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190551 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 151 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY... SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER... CAMPING ANYONE? && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JP

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