Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 272008 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 356 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 An area of surface low pressure is currently moving across the eastern Great Lakes. A cold front stems southwestward, aligned from KSYM to KBWG across Kentucky. High pressure is moving into the Ohio Valley, with the center across Illinois at this time. Aloft, a short wave trough is moving towards the Eastern Seaboard, with ridging building in across the Plains. Some isolated showers continue to pop up along the surface boundary, and will continue to be seen across eastern Kentucky through the rest of this afternoon, before diminishing into early this evening. High pressure will build in tonight; however, given the plentiful cloud cover upstream, and winds slowly veering to the north northeast, clearing looks to be delayed. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s. Once any lingering stratus/stratocu burn off by the mid-morning hours on Friday, skies will clear out as upper level heights build in across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Highs on Friday will range from the mid to upper 60s in the north, to the mid 70s in the south. High pressure will be positioned to our southeast on Friday night, allowing for return flow and a ridge/valley temperature split. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s in the valleys, to the mid 50s on the ridges under clear skies. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 408 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 ...Record warmth possible this weekend and into next week... 500mb ridging will be in place across the southern conus (mainly the Gulf states) through the weekend, increasing in strength across the southeast through next week. Zonal flow/slight ridging will be present across Kentucky through the day Saturday, with a small wave moving through the region and points northward during the day Sunday. AS the stronger ridging takes hold across the southeast, heights are also expected to push their way into the Ohio River valley through next week as well. At the surface, high pressure will be in place across KY and points to the southeast through the day Saturday, promoting good SW to NE flow across the region. This will combine with abundant sunshine to produce temperatures well above seasonable normals for this time of year. In fact, some places may see record high temperatures this day. Continued to go 2 to 3 degrees above the blend of models, given its dependence on climatological values and the very unclimatological weather pattern. For Sunday, the small wave that will move through the area aloft will translate to a surface low pressure system across the Upper Great Lakes and a frontal boundary which is expected to stall out just north of the Ohio River. It will be fairly weak, as it elongates and shears out, so don`t expect enough energy to make it into the CWA which would promote precipitation. However, it will increase the southerly flow across much of the southeast conus, once again prompting well above normal temperatures. The front will eventually shift southward through KY Sunday evening/night, but will be so weak at this point we should expect little impacts. Overall winds will remain southerly as the frontal zone strengthens slightly to our south, becoming a warm front. As the upper level ridging continues to intensify across the region, this deep pull of southerly air is expected to continue through the rest of the period. Combined with ample sunshine, afternoon highs are expected to max out well above seasonable normals for the duration of the long term forecast. As a result, continued to increase temperatures a couple degrees above the model blend since this is such an unclimatological set up. Many locations could see 80 degrees both Monday and Tuesday. In turn, this heat wave could result in more record high temperatures for several days next week. As was also noted in the previous discussion, with the start of the month of November looming, this heat wave may in fact meet or beat some of the all time record high temperatures for the month.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 MVFR ceilings will gradually move in across the entire area through this evening as a cold front moves through the region. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of around 20 to 25 kts, will shift to the west and northwest behind the boundary. These will diminish by early this evening. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight, with cloud cover gradually thinning from west to east between 06 and 12z. Winds will likely be light enough to allow for fog formation if ample clearing can take place; however, could also see more of a lower IFR stratus deck forming towards dawn as a possibility. For now, have sided more with stratus forming, given the slower clearing trends upstream. Low clouds/fog will burn off by the mid-morning hours on Friday, with VFR conditions returning thereafter. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.