Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 071945 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 245 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM EST WED DEC 7 2016 Upper low north of Lake Superior will continue to move east across Ontario, with trailing upper trough axis over the plains shifting east. At the surface, cold high pressure will continue to nose east into the Ohio Valley. The upper troughing and surface ridging results in colder air working its way into KY, with lows tonight mostly in the upper 20s and highs on Thursday from the mid 30s to around 40, about 10 degrees cooler than today. Even with the trough shifting east, and the surge of colder air, there will be very little moisture available. The outside chance for a few flurries remains in the forecast for late tonight and early Thursday. Thursday night will be even colder than tonight, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Some clouds will affect the northeastern part of the forecast area as a short wave trough swings by to our northeast. The clouds are not expected until late in the night, so temperatures should still fall off quickly in the northeast Thursday evening. If the clouds move in earlier than expected overnight lows would be warmer than current forecast in the northeast. There is still an outside chance for a few flurries in the northeastern part of the forecast area late Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 307 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016 A very cold airmass will be settling in over the area Thursday night. The H5 trough axis passes by during the night and models continue to indicate an increase in low level clouds overnight with a marginal upslope component to the low level flow. Soundings show cloud temps in the -8C to -12C range and this should be good for flurries to develop late Thursday night and continue into the day on Friday. Temperatures on Friday will likely remain below freezing for most locations giving us our coldest day since last February. High pressure then settles in over the region Friday night. Mid and high clouds streaming overhead may disrupt radiational cooling some, but temperatures will still likely fall deep into the teens. The weekend starts dry and chilly on Saturday, and then turns unsettled as a shortwave moves across the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. This forces a cold front across the state Sunday into Sunday night. Models are still having difficulty with this system and forecaster confidence on the details is lacking. Models are trending colder with the temperature profile and this draws into question precip type. Models do show a 50kt H85 jet which should draw enough warm air northward to cause the bulk of any precip to fall as rain. However, we will continue with the idea of a chance of rain/snow Sunday morning, then rain likely Sunday afternoon and evening before precip transitions back to a rain/snow mix late Sunday night into Monday morning. This system exits leaving what should be dry and seasonably cool day behind on Tuesday. Looking further out...while it appears we get a brief taste of Arctic air late this week, longer range models bring in a true Arctic blast later next week preceded by some accumulating snow. Certainly something to keep an eye on with future model runs...
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED DEC 7 2016 An 30-50 mile wide band of broken to overcast cloud with MVFR ceilings continues to hold fast across southeast Kentucky from Lake Cumberland to Pike County. This should begin to lift and mix out by late afternoon, but MVFR ceilings should persist at LOZ and SJS through mid afternoon. SME should even see some MVFR ceilings for a short time. VFR conditions will prevail from tonight through Thursday. Winds will generally be light and variable through tonight, but become westerly Thursday morning at 5 to 10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SBH

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