Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281101 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 701 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 701 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 The forecast is on track so far this morning. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids a couple of times to establish new trends. Aside from that, no other changes to the forecast were necessary.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 A period of dry and warmer weather is in store for the residents of eastern Kentucky today and tomorrow, as a ridge of high pressure settles over the region. High temperatures will return to closer to normal values today and tomorrow, with max readings in the low to mid 80s expected. Tonights lows will also be warmer, with ridgetop temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 60s, while the surrounding valleys bottom out in the upper 50s. Winds will be generally light and variable with mostly clear skies also on tap across the area through tomorrow morning. Clouds will be on the increase Thursday afternoon, as an area of low pressure passes by to the south of the area. A few showers and thunderstorms may evening across the Tennessee border into our southwestern counties Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 424 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast coast will be moving around the western side of surface high pressure over the Atlantic, resulting in rising dew points in our area at the start of the period. There should be little in the way of features on the map locally at the start of the period, and convective precip is expected to be mainly diurnal in nature, with very little left by 00Z on Thursday evening. Redevelopment is expected with destabilization on Friday, but still with very limited coverage due to lack of features. A shortwave trough rotating around a general trough over the north central CONUS will bring falling geopotential heights and temporarily nudge the upper level westerlies further south, supporting a weakening cold front to move into our area on Saturday. This will bring the highest POP of the extended forecast period. The upper trough lifts out to the northeast on Sunday and some limited drying occurs as the cold front washes out with passage. Forecast soundings suggest this will be enough to knock out convective precip for a couple of days. However, with little change in air mass and more sunshine, temperatures should actually climb Sunday and Monday. Another upper level trough moves in from the northwest on Monday night and Tuesday, and low level moisture creeps higher. This supports at least a mention of thunderstorms once again. However, the highest POP will remain to our northwest. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through out the period at all five TAF sites. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be on tap. Valley fog is still likely early this morning, especially near bodies of water and in our deepest and most sheltered valleys. The fog should remain suppressed enough to not affect any of the TAF sites. Cloud cover will be on the increase late tonight as an area of low pressure moves by just to our south, but VFR conditions should still prevail.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.