Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250810 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 410 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 407 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017 A large area of high pressure remains parked just to our NE and will continue to stay in place through the short term portion of the forecast. Southerly flow aloft will allow for some wisps of high cirrus to move across the region again today, but should have little impact on the surface conditions. A few diurnal CU will also be possible during the afternoon both today and Tuesday (better chances Tuesday according to the latest NAM12 soundings), dissipating in the evening. Did opt to go below guidance a couple degrees on dew points during the afternoon both today and tomorrow, based on the fact observations were somewhat lower than model guidance yesterday. This was coordinated with several surrounding offices, and will result in forecasted min RH values in upper 30 to low 40 percent range across portions of eastern KY this afternoon. Fog is visible in the deeper valleys again this morning, but is much less widespread/prominent than last night and is more concentrated across the Cumberland Valley. Observations in the Cumberland region are indicating dense fog, so included dense wording along the Cumberland river through daybreak today. Given very little change in the overall mesoscale and synoptic set up, expect conditions to be conducive to valley fog once again tonight as well. Did not include dense wording at this time as drier air today might help mitigate some of the fog development. However, can`t rule out some isolated dense, just not sure at this point as to where this will be. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 Abnormally warm and dry conditions will remain in play through midweek ahead of an approaching cool front set to bring near normal temperatures back to eastern Kentucky Thursday. This will occur as a northern stream upper low translates through Ontario and breaks down ridging across the eastern CONUS as Hurricane Maria slowly migrates north off the mid-Atlantic coast. Will maintain a dry forecast at this time as the upper low lifts north and shears out with little in the way if any surface convergence along the front as it passes late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will enter eastern Kentucky later Friday into Friday night ahead of a ~1030 mb surface ridge. Currently expecting dry conditions to continue into and through the weekend without any appreciable moisture return behind the previous system. Additionally, the positively tilted nature of the second trough will likely keep the bulk of any precipitation east of the Commonwealth. Fall-like temperatures will begin to take hold as lows begin to fall into the 40s, including a few valleys in the low 40s by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday only look to warm into the mid-upper 60s before rebounding a few degrees Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017 High pressure will keep mostly VFR conditions in place through the TAF period once again. Cloud cover should be sparse through out the period, with a few mid and high level clouds moving across the skies tonight, and a few diurnal CU around 4k feet possible during the afternoon on Monday. Fog will set up once again tonight, but should remain confined to the deeper valley locations. IFR or lower conditions can be expected in some of the deeper river valleys late tonight and through dawn. Included tempo MVFR conditions at SJS and SME near daybreak since they did see impacts from fog as it lifted out of the valleys yesterday morning. Winds will remain light and variable, generally under 5 knots, through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...JMW

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