Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 212036 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 336 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 High pressure will be the primary influence on the weather of eastern Kentucky in the short term. A fast moving upper level weather system will move across the region tonight, and will bring broken to overcast low and middle level cloud cover to the area. The system will be moisture starved, so no precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be influenced strongly by the amount of cloud cover that ends up forming, so went slightly above the latest MOS guidance for tonights lows. The passing system tonight will usher some cooler air into the area, so highs on Wednesday are expected to only top out in the 40s across the area. Another shot of cold air is in store for Wednesday night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s on tap for Thanksgiving morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 336 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 Generally good agreement among model solutions today. We continue to see a progressive and amplified pattern across the CONUS. Only feature of real interest for our area will be a fast moving short wave trough and its associated surface cold frontal boundary which will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by next weekend. Models have been fairly consistent in bringing this system through our area dry, keeping any shower activity to our north. As a result our sensible weather will remain dry though models do suggest a shot at some rain just beyond the forecast window. Temperatures will then fluctuate between brief periods of cooler then warmer weather. We start out rather cool for Thanksgiving Day, then moderate a bit by week`s end before dropping briefly again to wrap out the holiday weekend. Temperatures moderate once again by the end of the forecast window. Overall temperature will average at or just below norms for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 The TAF period will start off with scattered to broken layers of mid-level and high clouds. These clouds should persist through early this evening. Overnight, clouds should scatter out between 1 and 6Z, before a passing upper level disturbance brings scattered to broken clouds to the TAF sites once again between 6 and 11Z. The second round of clouds may also include a scattered to broken layer of low level clouds at each TAF sites between 9 and 11Z. Those clouds should scatter out early Wednesday morning as the sun rises and drier air filters into the area from the northwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...AR

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