Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251736 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 136 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1253 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 The forecast in general has been on track so far today. BKN to OVC high level clouds have overspread the area, but this still jives with the partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions being portrayed in the forecast. Hourly temperatures have also been on track for the most part as well. The only change made to the zone forecast text product was to remove any outdated morning wording. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 Clouds are a little less extensive than was forecast this morning, and have backed off on forecast sky cover for a while. Otherwise, have only blended early morning temps and dew points into the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 A slow moving stacked low pressure system currently over eastern OK will move northeast, reaching the Chicago area by Sunday evening. A warm, moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the advancing upper trough associated with the system are responsible for a line of showers and thunderstorms currently extending from southern IL south to the Gulf Coast. The precip will move east along with the regime, bringing rain to our local area this weekend. It should hold off long enough to give us another mild and dry day today. A model blend solution brings precip in from the west tonight, likely bisecting the JKL forecast area at dawn on Sunday, and then continuing to move eastward over the remainder of the area on Sunday. Modest instability is expected, and thunder will continue to be mentioned for tonight and Sunday. With decent flow aloft and freezing levels only around 8K ft on Sunday, organized convection could bring strong winds and hail. However, in terms of severe weather, parameters are not overly impressive. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 The first of a string of upper level waves will be placed across the Upper Ohio Valley/Southern Great lakes region in a negatively tilted position. A weak low will be stacked with it and trailing cold front attempting to progress through the area. There will be lingering showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and slowly wane from west to east through Monday. Did keep chance to slight chance POPs going into Monday, as the front may in fact stall out near by. That said, another wave will be on the heels of the previous and will eject east into the TN/OH valleys by Monday night. Another Low will develop and bring the front back across the region leading additional showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. This is where is gets convoluted as front may in fact stall again nearby, but the agreement on this becomes less in the deterministic models past this point. Right now given a upper level ridge builds east will cap POPs at slight on Wednesday and mainly confine these to the southern portions of the CWA. Another upper level wave will move out of the Four Corners into the Southern Plains Wednesday and progress east by Thursday. However, the models diverge on how this will evolve and struggle with what looks like some phasing issues. This leads to more uncertainty and would think all the issues leading in will have affects on this part of the forecast period as well. Not to mention the timing and evolution differences seen in the ensemble mean of the GFS versus the operational run. Given this felt like POPs would need to be caped at chance and unsure on where the highest POPs will truly exists. Therefore, will keep close to general trends in the model blend. Despite the active pattern it does look like a extended period of above normal temperatures will remain the story throughout the long term period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 VFR conditions are expected to hold until around 9Z at LOZ and SME. Scattered to numerous rain showers, and few thunderstorms, should be moving into the area around LOZ and SME by then. JKL and SYM can expect the showers and storms around 12Z, with SJS not seeing any precipitation in the vicinity until near the end of the TAF period. Any storms or intense showers could bring MVFR, or locally worse, conditions to any given airport. As for the rest of today, southerly winds of around 10 mph could gust to around 20 mph through 22Z. BKN to OVC layers of high level cloud cover will be in place to begin the TAF period, but will gradually be replaced by middle and low level clouds as a weather system approaches from the west this evening and tonight. South to southwest winds will pick up and gust to around 20 kts over much of the area during the day Today.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...AR

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