Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270701 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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