Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141938

National Weather Service Jackson KY
238 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

All eyes are centered on a clipper system that will be diving
southeast across the western great lakes into tomorrow, before
crossing the northern Ohio valley region and southern great lakes
Monday night into Tuesday. The first chances for snow will come
late tonight into early Monday morning as a warm front crosses the
area. Low level dry air will be firmly entrenched with moisture
recovery very poor. This fact, combined with southeast flow
developing off the higher terrain will keep measurable snow
chances fairly low tonight. However, better chances could be seen
in the bluegrass region as Bufkit soundings show a fairly
saturated column by 09z tonight. In fact, all operational models
are spitting out some liquid across this region. Given the
potential for a low QPF/high pop set up, have opted to go up to
likely pops for the bluegrass region late tonight. With moderately
high snow ratios, we could see upwards of a quarter of an inch of
snow in the bluegrass. Expect mainly flurries elsewhere, but
trends will need to be monitored to see if the snow ends up being
a bit more widespread. As for lows tonight, we should see a steep
drop in the eastern valleys this evening, likely reaching the
single digits by late evening. However, as clouds thicken up
tonight, we will see temperatures level off before starting to
rise towards dawn. Kept pretty close to previous forecast that had
this idea covered well.

On Monday, we will see a break from snow chances as we await the
arctic front that will be pushing southeast across Indiana and
western Kentucky. This front will be encroaching upon our northern
counties by late in the day with snow chances returning to the
area from north to south late Monday through Monday night. Model
QPF continues to stay fairly light Monday night, but snow ratios
remain fairly elevated. Thus, it looks like good potential for 1
to 2 inches of snow for much of the area Monday night. Snowfall in
southeast Kentucky may stay lighter as precipitation will arrive
very late Monday night, with the bulk of the precipitation coming
on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

The extended period of the forecast will feature very cold
temperatures and a good chance of accumulating snow at the
beginning of the period and much warmer temperatures and a good
chance for rain at the end of the period. The coldest period will
be from Tuesday through Wednesday, when temperatures will be in
the upper teens and 20s during the day, and mostly in the single
digits Tuesday night and Wednesday night. A gradual warm up should
begin to take place on Thursday, when highs are forecast to max
out in the lower 30s for most locations. The warming will continue
into the weekend, with highs on Friday expected to be in the low
to mid 40s for most locations, and in the 50s for Saturday. A fast
moving clipper type system will bring snow to eastern Kentucky
Monday night and Tuesday. Another area of low pressure may then
bring rain to the area Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

MVFR cigs have all dissipated, and VFR conditions will continue
through the remainder of the forecast period. However, some
lowering cigs will be seen tonight as a warm front crosses the
area. At this point, the low level dry air should hold and keep
cigs VFR. Winds will be light and variable through tonight before
increasing out of the south on Monday.




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