Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
720 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

Updated the forecast to adjust for some trends heading through
this evening and into tonight. The cloud cover across the area is
finally beginning to clear out with the exception of the far north
where some broken layers are gonna hang around a bit longer.
Overall, trends suggest the area will clear out within the next
few hours, especially with the dry air moving into the area. This
also means that with the upper teen dew points, some of the valley
areas have the potential to drop into the lower 20s tonight if not
a few teens. The one saving grace here is that most places will at
least have a light wind. Also adjust the valleys and ridges for a
slight ridge to valley difference. With the changes made, a new
ZFP was sent out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

A ridge of high pressure will be keeping the weather across
eastern Kentucky cool but dry tonight through early Sunday
evening. A much cooler air mass is now in place after a potent
cold front moved through the region last night, so tonights lows
will be quite winter like with minimum values in the low to mid
20s expected. Conditions will be a bit warmer tomorrow, as cloud
cover departs overnight, allowing for strong sunshine on Sunday.
Highs tomorrow should rise to around 50 degrees at most locations.
Low temperatures Sunday night should return to above normal
values, as cloud cover begins to increase and winds shift to the
south and southeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s by
Monday morning, which will be quite a bit warmer than tonights
expected lows.

A mix of rain and snow showers is then expected to move into the
area from the west late tonight into early Monday morning, as
moisture associated with our next weather system begins to
interact with the cold air mass that will still be in place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

An unsettled pattern will be in place through much of the upcoming
week as cyclonic flow across central and eastern Canada sends
periodic impulses of energy into the U.S. The first of these will
be in the form of a dampening shortwave trough sliding across the
Midwest and Ohio Valley early Monday. Moisture advection will have
a difficult time returning as far north as Kentucky given the
recent subsidence and dry air in place during the latter half of
the weekend, as evidenced by lingering low level dry air in
forecast sounding profiles along with southeast downslope surface
winds.

Much better rain chances will materialize early Tuesday as a warm
front lifts north east of a surface low ejecting into the central
Plains and Midwest, downstream of an upper trough traversing the
Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon, promoting increasing low level
instability and thus some thunderstorm activity. Height falls will
continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as deep layer shear increases
to on the order of 60-70 knots ahead of an approaching cold front.
Instability may prove to be a limiting factor in storm
intensity/coverage, given the exact timing of the front and
ongoing cold pool strength/depth following Tuesday`s precipitation.
Nonetheless, a double-barrel surface low may further foster additional
lift for ascent.

A sharp cooldown will ensue late Wednesday into Thursday with
temperatures very likely falling below normal for late week. A few
snowflakes may fly into early Thursday and again early Friday as a
potential clipper system grazes the Great Lakes, but currently not
expecting any impactful accumulation. A warming and drying trend
look to occur into next weekend at this point as backing flow
aloft takes shape across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

Current conditions at the TAF sites feature winds becoming light
and skies beginning to clear out. a very dry air mass and winds
remaining light will mean that while a few very localized areas
may see some fog tonight, most locations will not see any develop
despite the soaking rains no more than 24 hours ago. Winds will
decouple and become light within the next couple hours. Skies will
be mainly clear with the exception of some mid and upper level
layers moving in tomorrow afternoon. Overall, a VFR forecast is on
tap.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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