Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 160803

National Weather Service Jackson KY
403 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Surface high pressure remains anchored from New England down into
the central and southern Appalachians, as well as portions of the
Ohio Valley. Aloft, troughing rules out across the West, with
ridging in the East. Another foggy night is on tap for eastern
Kentucky in the valleys, given the combination of clear skies,
calm winds, and lingering low level moisture.

Warm and dry weather can be expected across the area through the
weekend, with mainly valley fog tonight once again, and some
afternoon cumulus during the day. Winds will remain light. Highs
will be in the lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Models are in good agreement through the extended, the exception
being Dy4 through Dy5 where some small differences show up with
shortwave energy passing through the Ohio Valley. In general, models
depict a mean mid-level ridge over the lower Ohio Valley through the
period. This mean ridge breaks down temporarily as a result of
Jose as it rides up the Atlantic coast. This allows some weak
shortwave energy to pass through the Ohio Valley sometime from
late Tuesday through Wednesday. Strong ridging then builds back in
across the region to close out the extended.

Sensible weather remains generally uneventful, warm, and dry through
the extended. Short wave disturbances will bring a low threat of
rain to portions of the area between Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday evening. There should be enough surface based
instability to allow for the mention of thunder Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon and early evening Wednesday. Overall
afternoons will be warm with more sun than not. High temperatures
will average about 5 degrees above normal. Included only small
terrain based temperature adjustments each night for our typical
ridge valley splits. Conditions remain favorable for at least some
patchy fog each night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Dense fog will develop through 12z, eventually bringing the TAF
sites down to below airport minimums. The fog will burn off
between 14 and 15z, with some scattered cumulus ranging from 4 to
5k feet agl during the afternoon. Winds will average less than 5
kts through the period.


Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-



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