Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190050
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
850 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Interesting set up this evening. Surface front is still out to
our west and some isold convection, in the form of showers and
thunderstorms, has fired along the boundary. Most of the activity
has been nearly stationary, likely leading to some isolated spots
receiving some significant rainfall. High res models have begun to
pick up on this activity and indicate at least a slight potential
for rainfall through the remainder of the evening as the front
gradually shifts eastward. Thus reintroduced some isolated PoPs
for those areas that were dry to account for the potential.
Otherwise brought grids in line with hourly trends. Still looking
for some patchy to areas of dense fog to develop through the
overnight. Current Special Weather Statement has this covered.
Zone and grids products have already been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Light to moderate rain continues to gradually shift eastward
across far southeastern Kentucky this afternoon. This main area
of rain is still out ahead of the surface frontal boundary which
appears to be near the western edge of the forecast area per 19Z
analysis. The front will shift east through the area tonight, with
some isolated showers possible. However, these showers shouldn`t
be much of an issue due to the atmosphere being worked over from rain
earlier today.

Any remaining rain showers overnight should taper off by dawn
tomorrow, as the upper level trough swings through the area. The
trough is expected to be east of the area by tomorrow afternoon,
with skies quickly clearing from west to east behind it. Higher
heights and a surface ridge will build into the region tomorrow
evening, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures Monday night.

The main concern for the overnight period will be dense fog. With
the ground now saturated, and cooler temperatures this afternoon,
it won`t take much for dense fog to set up. Therefore, have
decided to issue an SPS for dense fog and will also mention it in
the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Above normal warmth and dry weather will continue through the
remainder of the week and potentially through next weekend. Upper
ridging across the southeast U.S. may be somewhat broken down by a
cutoff low meandering across the southeastern U.S. into the central
Appalachians, as well as cyclonic flow anchored by an upper low
across Hudson Bay into Quebec. Minor ripples of energy aloft across
the Great Lakes into Canada will send weak wind shifts toward
eastern Kentucky Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday with little if any
effect on sensible weather.

Tuesday`s wind shift will essentially reinforce surface ridging for
early to mid week, before the southeastern U.S. cutoff low attempts
to advect increasing moisture into southeastern Kentucky. Forcing
from this feature looks to remain east of the Commonwealth, with
temperatures continuing to top out in the mid-upper 80s.

Upper ridging will follow the departing cutoff low for the weekend,
keeping similar warmth and dryness in place. Could see enough
lingering moisture to produce an orographically induced storm or two
Saturday afternoon across the higher terrain as a backdoor front
swings toward the region, but most locales should remain dry. Next
bonafide chance of precipitation will ride on cyclonic flow
extending from near the Northwest Territories into Mexico late next
weekend into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Surface front is still out to our west and some isold convection
has fired along the boundary. High resolution models have begun
to pick up on this activity and indicate at least a slight
potential for rainfall through the remainder of the evening as the
front gradually shifts eastward. Biggest forecast challenge will
be low CIGS and VSBYS at our terminals due to stratus and dense
fog. Followed guidance closely which eventually takes flight
conditions down to LIFR or lower for all of our terminals after
about 06Z. Conditions improve slowly Monday morning as drier air
works its way into the area. Winds will be light and variable
through the period, but becoming more northerly into the day
Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...RAY



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