Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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904
FXUS63 KJKL 170043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
743 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations
and trends. Low and mid level clouds have generally scattered out
over most of the area, with the exception of the WV border
counties. This has allowed for some of the deeper valley
locations that experienced persistent cloud cover today to fall
into the low to mid 30s so far. Meanwhile, the ridgetops and more
open terrain areas have remained mixed so far. Temperatures in
locations that have already decoupled have been lowered over the
next few hours with some lows in the upper 20s and then blended
back toward the previous forecast toward dawn as southwest flow
and an increase in clouds should limit further fall later on
tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

Current conditions across the area feature a narrow band of mid
level cloud cover stream southeast over eastern Kentucky. This is
in advance of a weak shortwave tracking over the Great Lakes
region. This band has been responsible for a challenging
temperature forecast over the area heading into this evening. This
band will slowly track northeast through this evening and into
tonight. For tonight, because of the slow northeast track, it will
take a bit of time to set up the ridge to valley temperatures
split tonight with that in mind. Have lessened the split a bit for
tonight because of this. Also the southwest flow will limit this a
bit as well.

As the mentioned warm front associated with the wave tracking
across the Great Lakes lifts northeast, expect skies to clear out
for Friday along with some well above normal temperatures as highs
tomorrow will soar to around 60 degrees for highs. The clear skies
heading into Friday night will allow for a few valley to ridge
differences but the stronger southwest flow ahead of the next
system will continue to limit this a bit. In fact, cloud cover
ahead of a wave heading northeast from the lower MS Valley will
begin to bring showers into eastern Kentucky by Saturday morning.
Due to the overall dry weather in place, it may take till later in
the day on Saturday to measure so will hold off any QPF till the
extended portion of the forecast. This seems to be the biggest
question in the short term but trends would suggest this is the
case.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

The highlight of the long term portion of the forecast remains the
unseasonable warmth, which will become especially noteworthy as we
begin the new week. In fact some records, both daytime maximums and
warm overnight minimums may be set next week.

There will be split flow through the period with anomalously strong
upper level ridging from the Gulf of Mexico north into Canada at the
start of the new week. To begin the weekend an upper low in the
southern stream will drift east from the lower MS Valley across the
TN Valley. This will result in rain chances from Saturday into
Sunday morning, but the QPF remains light, generally under a quarter
of an inch.

Next week another upper low in the southern stream will drift east,
but on a more southerly track, moving from far southern TX into the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. This will be a very slow moving
system with the low still over the Gulf of Mexico as we move into
Thursday. A quicker moving northern stream short wave will track
across the Great Lakes Tuesday, and this may be followed by yet
another northern stream short wave trough for mid week, though there
is less model agreement as we move into the middle of next week
especially for the northern stream. While there is better model
agreement with the handling of the southern stream upper low next
week, there is not good agreement on how much moisture will flow
north into the TN and OH valleys, so the confidence in rain chances
and amounts of rain for the middle of next week remain fairly low.
For now rain chances will be introduced for Tuesday night and then
continue into Thursday morning, with decreasing chances on Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A band of low
and mid level clouds continues to exit to the east with some
cirrus passing by at this time. Additional bands of high and some
mid level clouds should move across the area through the period.
An increasing low level jet overnight combined with light surface
winds will lead to the threat for some westerly low level wind
shear of 30 to 35KT between 7Z and 13Z at western locations and
mainly affect SME and LOZ. Winds will average out of the
southwest at 5 to 10 mph or less through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JP



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