Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010124 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KY AND FROM WAYNE AND
PULASKI COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO ELLIOTT COUNTY NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY AND THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE OZARK REGION
OF MO/AR AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE OH VALLEY REGION. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAD NOT HANDLED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALL THAT WELL. HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRR MAY HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE...WHICH HAS A MIN IN ACTIVITY DURING MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH A RESURGENCE TOWARD 9Z...OR 5 AM WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL KY AND COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THESE TRENDS
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARD
RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC LOW ROLLING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO
WITH ITS COLD FRONT SETTLING DEEPER INTO KENTUCKY. THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY HEATED
UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HELPING TO FUEL THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...HEAVY RAINS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL THE ORIGINAL ONES...THOUGH THEY ARE MOVING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOW BEEN WORKED OVER. CURRENTLY
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RAIN COOLED AIR IN THE FAR
EAST TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA AS
WINDS VARY FROM SOUTH TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN STORMS.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STARTING TO CLOSE OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE AGGRESSIVELY SOUTH NAM.
PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TRANSITION
AFFECTING EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES LATER IN
THE SHORT TERM HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE HRRR
WEIGHED HEAVIEST EARLY ON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE A LULL IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY DUE TO THE WEAK SFC LOW AND
CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THE PCPN WILL WIND DOWN LATER
MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG. CERTAINLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN ON MONDAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PCPN WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. ITS ARRIVAL
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR THE CWA.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO
MONDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS
AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP RATHER HIGH
BUT IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST GOING
FORWARD...IT APPEARS NOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK.

AS IT STANDS NOW...TUESDAY MAY FEATURE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
COOLER SURFACE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDY SKIES (MORE TYPICAL OF
FALL)...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO REAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST ANY THUNDER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

AS THE WEAK WEARS ON...ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES ON WHEN WEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS
OUT AND HOW THIS IMPACTS OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH A
DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TRAILING OFF AT NIGHT.

BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY WERE TO LOWER HIGHS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
APPALACHIAN REGION...AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...AND LATER STORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE 6Z TO 9Z PERIOD ON AS A WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
HUNG UP BOUNDARY. HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VIS INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z ON MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP


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