Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201845
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
245 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through
Thursday night. MCS activity to our northwest may throw some
debris cloudiness overhead from time to time, but dry air in place
over east Kentucky should keep any precip just to our west. This
dry air, with dewpoints noted as low as the mid and upper 50s in
a few locations this afternoon, will allow temperatures tonight to
fall back into the 60s. Highs tomorrow should warm to around 90,
but again with bearable humidity levels. Models then indicate our
low level flow veers to more of a southerly direction Thursday
night, which will set us up for higher dewpoint air to advect in
for Friday and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 EDT wed JUL 20 2016

The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a
persistent mid/upper level ridge across the southern United States.
This will result in hot humid weather into the weekend. Heat index
values during the afternoon are expected to be around 100 in some
locations from Friday into Sunday, and possibly on Monday. A series
of short waves will move west to east along the northern periphery
of the ridge, with the most significant wave early next week.
This particular wave and associated surface low will help push a
cold front towards the area Monday, and it is on Monday that the
best chance for thunderstorms will exist. With the ridge in our
area being somewhat suppressed next week, temperatures will remain
above average, but not as warm as this weekend.

A couple of items of note: Timing of any specific short wave remains
uncertain, and there will be at least a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the forecast period. The best chance as
supported by a blended model approach appears to be Monday. Another
area of uncertainty is the afternoon temperature forecast for the
weekend, as maximum temperatures will depend on how much debris
cloudiness moves across the area from any upstream convection, and
how much convection occurs locally. Generally the model blends are
indicating slightly lower, but still well above average high
temperatures for the weekend, as compared to our current forecast
maximums.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the forecast period
with high pressure in place. Patchy valley fog will develop
tonight. However, with drier air in place, there should be less
coverage than there was this morning so will keep it out of the
TAFS at this time. Winds will be light from the north/northeast.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...ABE


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