Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 040548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1248 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE FOG ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH 11Z TODAY AS A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS HAVE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG NORTH...EAST...AND WEST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE SO FAR
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH OBS HOLDING
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION...AS WE FIND OURSELF ON THE LEE SIDE OF A TROUGHING PATTERN.
A CENTER OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE...BEING PUSHED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS IT DOES...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS KY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER A WARM FRONT
IMPACTED US TODAY...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AREA
TEMPS AT BAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN CWA EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
40. THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA MAY EVEN STILL STAY IN THE LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL FOCUS AROUND THE RAIN. MODELS ARE
NOW STARTING TO AGREE THAT THE BEST BAND OF QPF WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND SPREAD NE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. WITH STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...QPF OF BETWEEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER AND
AN INCH AND A HALF ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH
A THIRD TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
RAIN WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
IF THE RAIN WASN/T ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONCERNS...WE ARE ALSO STILL
DEALING WITH SOME SNOWPACK ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CWA. LUCKILY...THE SE WILL LIKELY
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT REGARDLESS...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS
WILL LEAD TO SNOWMELT...ENHANCING THE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT SOME OF
THE SMALLER STREAMS AND HEADWATERS TO BE RUNNING HIGH.

TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. QPF HAS BEEN COMING IN LIGHTER ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY
RIVER BASINS...WHERE AROUND 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST
QPF HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW PAINTING
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS/I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES MAY
FALL.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW/SLEET ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BLUEGRASS
AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR WILL
UNDERCUT THE WARM NOSE...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
RESISTING THIS THE LONGEST. SOME ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WITH SUCH A SHARP GRADIENT AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
LINGERING...THE ICE IMPACT MAY BE MORE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES.

THE SNOW TOTALS LOOK IMPRESSIVE CLOSER TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR...
WHERE UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE. AMOUNTS WILL DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THE SLEET WILL CUT DOWN ON THE OVERALL
TOTALS. THE SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SEEING THE HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS...WITH THE WARM NOSE HANGING ON
LONGER...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF
HEAVIER SLEET. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A WARNING FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
BLUEGRASS...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LIKELY NOT SEEING
A TRANSITION OVER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR BEYOND.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH...TO THE MID 50S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TAKE A GOOD 25 DEGREE
DIVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY
LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE (AND QUIET WEATHER) WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...
WITH A FEW SPOTS IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES...
WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE
COLD SNAP APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START
MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOST OF THE TAF SITES WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS JKL...WHICH WAS SOCKED IN
WITH THICK FOG AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND IN EFFECT WASHES OUT THE FOG.
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE SHORT PERIODS OF IFR IF THICKER
FOG IS ABLE TO FORM OR DURING INTENSE BRIEF DOWN POURS OF RAIN.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM UNTIL AROUND 0Z
THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...IT APPEARS THAT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE
RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND RAIN
BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z. GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE CHALLENGING AT OUR AIRPORTS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.