Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 271220 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING VIRGINIA...WHERE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY HIGH 20S ARE IN PLACE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW...RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE...TUE NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE GFS...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS IS ALSO STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY THE GFS SOLUTION HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MID TERM WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARDS CONSENSUS...WHICH IS DRY. FROM THERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS SWINGING A THIRD MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIGGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS STILL BRING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT...WITH SIMILAR SFC FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AT THE END OF FORECAST WINDOW. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT SUBJECT MATTER CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD WEATHER AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING. VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINTS AT THE SFC IN THE SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN RANGE WILL MAKE FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...SLIGHTLY EAST OF OUR AREA WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AT BEST. SO WE CAN EXPECT A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DID BRING TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY IN OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES...INTO THE LOWER 20S...AS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR NEXT WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN AROUND -10C. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY RAISE UP TO VFR THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER A GIVEN LOCATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.