Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 282319 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 719 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 719 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 Mainly some thin cirrus is currently passing overhead. Temperatures are starting to drop off in the more sheltered valleys, and given the drier low level air still in place, will lower the valley temperatures somewhat, allowing for some mid 50s. Broader valleys and ridgetops will only cool off to the low to mid 60s, which the current forecast has well handled. Updates will be out shortly.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 413 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 High pressure remained in control for the day as it continues to shift eastward away from the region. Strong S to SW return flow is now in place across the region. This will allow for warmer temperatures and higher humidity values to start advecting into the region after this point. Some high clouds may also continue to advect into the region from the NW associated with a system currently over the northern Mississippi Valley. This should not hamper some valley fog development once more tonight, mainly in near bodies of water. For tomorrow, temperatures will rise to at or above seasonable normals, in the mid and upper 80s, but higher humidities will make it feel warmer. An upper level low is expected to become closed off along the Gulf of Mexico coast overnight as it slowly shifts northeast through the day Thursday. This disturbance will combine with the warm, moist, and unstable flow during the day tomorrow, producing showers and thunderstorms across much of the Deep South, especially along the Gulf Coast. Model trends are continuing to pull this shower and thunderstorm potential northward along the best moisture flow, possibly reaching the south central portion of KY during the day Thursday. This could result in some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across our far SW CWA during the day Thursday, tapering off again with loss of daytime heating in the evening. Mild conditions return for Thursday night, with lows in the mid and upper 60s, with cooler temps expected for the deeper valleys. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 354 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Friday with a fairly active upper level pattern in place. Expect a shortwave trough to be diving southeast into the OH Valley. Southwesterly flow near the surface will bring ample moisture into the lower levels with precip chances on the increase by Friday afternoon and increased forcing as the front approaches. As the potent shortwave and increased forcing approaches, increased moisture evident by the lower 70 degree dew points entering the area by Saturday afternoon, will greatly destabilize the airmass with roughly 2000 J/KG expected. This will also be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Saturday into Saturday evening. At this point for Saturday, based upon the model profiles, there certainly is a possibility for a few strong storms. Waning instability will mean the thunderstorm potential will dissipate with only showers expected for Saturday night into Sunday. Much lessened instability ahead of the slowed and weakened front for Sunday will allow just enough for a few thunderstorms and mainly shower activity as CAPE values will struggle to reach 500. Stout ridging nudging into the lee side of the Appalachians will keep the weakened boundary parked over the Appalachian range and a slight chance of thunderstorms for Sunday evening through Monday evening. The super blend shows a lot of agreement in this pattern with the newest run of the Euro. The final day of the extended on Tuesday seems to feature the models showing a break down in the pattern as precip chances will be pending on a strong wave undercutting the western ridge and moving into the area from the Mid MS Valley. Overall, a pretty active pattern is in store for the extended. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017 VFR conditions will generally continue through the period. Some patchy MVFR or worse fog will likely occur once again between 06 and 12z; however, this will be confined to the deepest river valleys. Warm and moist return flow will bring some scattered cumulus back into the area during the afternoon. A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible mainly along and west of I-75; however, given the more limited areal coverage, will continue to not mention at LOZ and SME. Light south winds through Thursday morning will become south southwest at near 10 kts by the afternoon hours.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.