Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261900 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 200 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY COVER AND POPS...THOUGH DID ALSO BUMP UP MAX T A NOTCH AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST WHILE AN ARCTIC FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EARLIER SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEPARTING...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW IS ON ITS WAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR...RAP13...AND LATEST NAM12 DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT EACH TIME AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS SEASON WE HAVE SEEN DECENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE POPS AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WHICH WILL START TO ENTER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA TOWARD EVENING. ON SATELLITE... THERE IS A CLEAR PATCH BETWEEN THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THOSE FROM THE EXITING LOW TO THE EAST. HAVE TIMED THESE IN THE SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY. READINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT UPPER 20S ARE FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED MAINLY FOR POPS...SKY...AND WX WITH SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO KEEP THE HOURLY TRACES ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. AN UPDATED HWO WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POPS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THIS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT WILL STILL KEEP AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE AN EXITING SHIELD OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE MESOSCALE BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA AS THE MAIN LOW WINDS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITHIN THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL...SOME VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG WITH A HALF INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL WITHIN AN HOUR. ELSEWHERE...THE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAS EXITED AS WELL AND SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN. WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING THE WSW EARLY IN A COUPLE HOURS HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THIS AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE FAR AND FEW IN BETWEEN. DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH LIKELY SQUEEZING OUT ANY MOISTURE LEFT IN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WITH THIS...FLURRIES MAY HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT AND INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE COLD AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING DURING THE MORNING. THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT... BETWEEN THE MELTING SNOW...ANY WET SPOTS ON THE ROAD...THE NEW SNOW COVER...THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN...AND ANY THREAT THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSE...MAY DECIDE TO KEEP AN SPS GOING TO HIGHLIGHT THESE NUISANCES THAT WILL IMPACT TRAVEL TODAY AND TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE PART OF A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP BROAD SW FLOW AND GIVEN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SEE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY MIX ON SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. THEN WE SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD EAST AND SURFACE HIGH SETUP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE PRECIP MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE WARM FRONT OVER TAKES THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE CERTAINLY DETAILS THAT DO NOT MATCH UP PERFECTLY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS JUNCTURE. ONE OF THESE BEING THE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONCERN REMAINS EVEN GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES MUCH OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT THIS POINT...AS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE PRESENTED WITH BROAD SW FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND AT TIMES SATURATED COLUMN TO BE PRESENT...WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWATS FROM TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH. WHILE THIS WILL BE SEVERAL PERIOD EVENT WOULD STILL THINK THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO CONCERNS PARTICULARLY SINCE SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COASTAL LOW. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA...BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AVIATION CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT. HAVE ADDRESSED THE SNOW WITH A VCSH DURING THIS TIME AND ALSO WITH PREVAILING MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS IN THE BETTER SNOWS ANTICIPATED DURING EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF

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