Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 290401 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1101 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 RAIN IS TAPERING OFF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. TRIMMED BACK POPS AND HAVE THEM MOVING SE AT A FASTER RATE NOW TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EVEN STILL...WON/T BE SURPRISED IF THE POPS END UP MOVING OUT EVEN FASTER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE CURRENT HRRR MODEL WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED SE MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN MOVING OUT OF MUCH OF THE CWA BY 7Z...BUT BECOMING STALLED OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 7Z THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE MODEL HAS INITIALIZED WELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 TWO MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FIRST WAS TO CHANGE THE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO CENTER THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN LINGERING SLIGHTLY LONGER ACROSS THE SW CWA THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS BETTER ACCOUNTED FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS WHAT BOTH THE HI RES AND SHORT TERM MODELS WERE FORECASTING. THE SECOND CHANGE WAS TO ADD FOG WORDING TO THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF KY IS REPORTING FOG...IN AREAS WITH AND WITHOUT RAIN. EXPECT THIS FOG TO CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS FOG SHOULD THEN BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND RAIN MOVES OUT. VALLEYS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW INTO THE AREA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE COLDER AIR IS A BIT TO SLOW TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN TN TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP THROUGH FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER...DO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND HAS ALREADY BEEN THE CASE IN SOME OF THE BLUEGRASS AREAS. ESPECIALLY PLACES THAT REMAIN SATURATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN FALL SKIRTING ALONG THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE LOW EXITS OF TO THE EAST. HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND SOME LINGERING RAIN IN THE EAST MAY CHANGE OR MIX TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S FOR LOWS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BROKEN UP INTO THREE SEGMENTS. PART ONE...ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER IN THE NORTHERLY MEAGERLY MOIST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SECOND PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN EAST TO WEST ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PART THREE WILL FEATURE A WELL DEVELOPED AND VERY MOISTURE LADEN WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LEAVING THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S DURING THE DAY...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS THEN PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN CHILLIER...WITH THE MERCURY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 20 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO SOAK THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE STATE OF KENTUCKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY WILL PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW? RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE END OF WEEK WEATHER PATTERN. THE GFS HAS ITS LOW MOVING FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. THAT BEING SAID...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF MODEL. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM LATELY WITH REGARDS TO LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AFTER A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THURSDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS BEING FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW AS IT MOVES NORTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY ON THE GROUND LONG AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GOOD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOME NEAR FREEZING AIR COULD SPILL INTO THAT AREA EACH NIGHT. AS IS COMMON IN WINTER...THE MODELS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY TO SEE WHICH DIRECTION THINGS TREND...MORE RAIN OR MORE SNOW WILL BE THE QUESTION AS WE MOVE FORWARD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 701 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE OF KY...THOUGH RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS STILL POSSESS A STRONG SWRLY COMPONENT...ALLOWING THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. FOG IS BEING OBSERVED NOW ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR AT AIRPORT MINIMUMS...THE FOG AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP VIS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN LIFR AND BELOW AIRPORT MINS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LIKELY VARIABILITY IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN...WENT WITH A GENERAL AND OPTIMISTIC 1SM AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BURN OFF AND VIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER WEAKER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...SO CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.