Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271718 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 118 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED NDFD HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 SOME PESKY CU HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE LOW TEMPS. SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S SO BUMPED THE LOWS DOWN 1-2 DEGREES...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING SUITE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN USHERING IN 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS...MAKING THINGS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN ONLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE...HELPING TO PIVOT THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTEND WITH ALONG THE GULF STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE EAST. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE...WHILE WEAKER IN THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE DECISIVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...WHILE STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE...KEEPING MORE TROUGHINESS IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INITIALLY...BEFORE THEN DEPICTING SOME INFLUENCE FROM ERIKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR NEXT WEEK...A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OCCURRING ON SUNDAY...WHEN MORE FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND SC HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CEILINGS ARE ABOVE 4K FEET...BUT A FEW LOCAL CEILINGS AROUND 3K FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. A FEW N TO NE WIND GUSTS OF 12 TO 18 KNOTS FROM CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SBH

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