Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300035 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH A MERIDIONAL RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. IN FACT...A RATHER COOL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE PATTERN. THIS SOLUTION IS SHARED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE MCS TYPE SET UP WITH THE EXTENDED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THE REMNANTS OF SOME CONVECTION DIMINISHING BEFORE ANOTHER COMPLEX BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FEATURE SEEMS MORE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO KY...ESPECIALLY WITH A SEEMINGLY STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS KY. THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE AS WELL AS THE PATTERN...THE GFS SOUNDING ARE SHOWING LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE ORGANIZATION WITH THESE FEATURE SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST. PERHAPS THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE INABILITY CLEAR OUT THE AREA DUE TO SOME DEBRIS CLOUD COVER. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE EURO IN AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...THIS SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY CASE AND HENCE THE MARGINAL MENTION IN THE DAY 3 BY SPC AND THIS MIGHT EVEN PERHAPS BE OVERDONE. HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE INSTABILITY SEEMS A BIT BETTER AND ORGANIZATION WOULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY AND THIS IS SUGGESTED IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL. FRIDAY FEATURES ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...BUT ONCE AGAIN LACKING A BIT IN INSTABILITY SO THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ORGANIZATION BEING TIED TO THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND EURO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE PATTERN AND THE EURO BECOMING MORE ZONAL OR AT LEAST A MORE FLATTENED FLOW. DUE TO THIS AND BEING THE LAST 2 DAYS IN THE EXTENDED...WILL LEAN MORE TO A COMPROMISE OF THE SUPER BLEND AND COLLABORATION BETWEEN NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE RESULT OF THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE DIURNAL DOMINATED TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAKENING OR FLATTENING PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY THE EURO...AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE STORMS ALREADY HAVING CLEARED THE TAF SITES...BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR SYM AND SJS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY AT LOZ AND SME. HAVE GONE WITH IFR FOG FROM 08 TO 12Z...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH...GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 12Z...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THREATENING ONCE AGAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE WSW TO W AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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