Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 270835 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT. THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2 MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE. TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH... A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES... DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED... ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GREIF

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