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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 100630
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GENERAL
PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH
VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWER A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. INITIALLY HAVE SIDED
WITH THE NAM...HOWEVER MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE WHEN THE NEW
ECMWF COMES IN AFTER 3 AM. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS THAT HAS BEEN BIAS AND ELEVATION ADJUSTED. ONCE THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NORMAL VALLEY
FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE VALLEYS HAVE
DECOUPLED ALREADY...SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG FORM IN THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF JACKSON. THE DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE WAS ONLY ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. NORMALLY...IN THIS SCENARIO...THE STATIONS WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SEEING SOME VALLY FOG WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. STATIONS LIKE JKL...WILL NOT SEE FOG FORM
OVERHEARD...HOWEVER SOME MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS BELOW AND THE LIFT
AS THE HEATING STARTS UP. THIS LIFTED FOG THEN MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE ASOS THAN THE RUNWAY.
SME AND SJS HAD MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...SO MADE THE
CONDITIONS WORSE THERE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ

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