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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 042052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES OR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...HEAVY RAINS DEFINITELY A MAJOR CONCERN. THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN...WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN OCCURING ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT LEANER WITH THE
FIRST BATCH OF RAINFALL...WITH 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN SUGGESTED
NOW...AND THEN SIMILAR TOTALS OCCURRING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WOULD YIELD 4 DAY TOTALS IN THE 4 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH LARGER
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING
GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND PIVOT A
BIT MORE AS SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY. THE RAIN MAY FALL
HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAVES
MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.

SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS TRENDED A BIT QUICKER...SO THERE MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW OF DECENT ENOUGH SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY HEADING INTO DUSK. WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL
CONSISTENCY BEFORE DRAWING MORE ATTENTION TO THIS POTENTIAL AS IMPACT
OVERALL STILL LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH
OF I-64...TO THE LOWER 40S BORDERING TENNESSEE.

THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL THEN THREATEN EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS...HOWEVER THE WARM NOSE LOOKS TO OVERWHELM THE COLD AIR
QUICKLY...SO IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MORE LIMITED WINDOW OF SNOW AND
POSSIBLY AN ALTERNATIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON HOW COLD
IT CAN GET SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FURTHER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A MORE ROBUST
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF AND HEADS
NORTHEAST. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE
MAXIMIZED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ONCE IT GETS DRAGGED TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY. EXPECT SOME BACKSIDE SNOW ONCE
AGAIN...HOWEVER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING...AM ONLY SEEING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS RIGHT NOW. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS..AND SOME PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AT LOZ AND SME. AFTER THE WARM FRONT
PASSES NORTH...WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH