Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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352 FXUS63 KJKL 241735 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1235 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 Forecast looks on track. Made some minor adjustments to hourly NDFD based on latest observational trends and short term guidance but this did not result in any substantive changes to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 653 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 Clear skies this morning will allow for a quick warmup once mixing commences. Most locales sitting in the low-mid 20s, with the Dorton mesonet site currently at 41 degrees. This combined with dewpoints in the 20s/30s this afternoon should make for high temperatures topping out in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 358 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 Following a crisp start to the day, moderating temperatures will be in store as low level winds veer south/southwesterly in wake of ridging pushing across the mid-Atlantic. Backing flow aloft will take shape between a dampening shortwave trough across the western Atlantic and another lobe of energy stretching from Hudson Bay to the upper Ohio Valley, further promoting temperatures warming above normal into the mid 50s to near 60 this afternoon. Top-down moistening will ensue later tonight as the latter feature further digs and extends a mean trough through the Tennessee Valley into the Gulf of Mexico. A subsequent increase in mid-high cloud cover and elevated south/southwest winds will keep low temperatures in the low 40s on ridges. Eastern valleys should cool into the mid-upper 30s preceding the increase in cloud cover. While energy will ride south through eastern Kentucky later tonight into Saturday morning, low level moisture return looks to be rather anemic in terms of measurable rainfall. Have therefore kept sprinkles in the forecast as virga may be able to occasionally produce liquid at ground level along a cold front pushing through the Commonwealth. A drier and cooler airmass will advect into eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon as a surface ridge noses into the western Ohio Valley, but may see sprinkle activity persist into the mid-late afternoon near the Virginia border as upslope winds materialize and temperatures top out in the mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 359 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday night with an amplified but progressive upper level pattern in place. However, Kentucky seems to be stuck in a rather unimpressive overall dry pattern with the northern stream disturbances possessing a severe lack of moisture. For the most part the, models seem to be in decent agreement with the seeming difference being in timing as the GFS is a bit more progressive compared to the slower Euro. With no strong surge or no strong intrusion of a colder airmass through the period, temperatures seem to remain around normal values for much of the extended. In fact, heading into Day 6 and 7 of the extended, there seems to finally be a strong surge of warm air ahead of an approaching cold front. For the most part, high pressure will dominate much of the extended. By Wednesday night, a stronger disturbance tracks over the central Rockies and eastward. This shortwave does seem poised to bring a chance of showers into the area by Wednesday night and into Thursday. The progressive nature of the disturbance will leave precip chances brief. However, the euro does hint at much larger precip chances next Thursday into Friday as well. Thus trends would suggest a dry pattern overall transitioning into a bit wetter at the end of next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire forecast period. Some high clouds will drift across the area today, and mid level clouds will increase tonight in advance of a cold front. Ceilings on Saturday are expected to lower, but remain in the 5K to 10K feet range. The front may also bring a few sprinkles, but nothing of significance. Winds ahead of the front will be south to southwest, and then shift to the west Saturday afternoon as the front moves through.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...SBH

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