Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 262333 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 733 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 733 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points through this evening. Thicker cloud cover moving in from the northwest should hold off long enough for a quick drop in the valleys through 06z, otherwise the forecast remains on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 328 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 Another cool and dry summer afternoon remains in place across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures in the low-mid 70s and dewpoints comfortably sitting in the mid 40s-mid 50s. One band of mid-high clouds continues to move across southern to central Kentucky, while another subtle shortwave impulse is producing a second batch of these from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley. This latter wave, stretching from the Great Lakes to near St. Louis, will bring isolated to scattered showers through the Ohio Valley and into eastern Kentucky later this evening through tonight. Moisture will be very limited and confined to top-down moistening, as surface ridging moves south into the Tennessee Valley. Therefore, expecting rainfall amounts to remain below one tenth of an inch. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday afternoon as the axis of the mid level trough swings through eastern Kentucky. Given steepening lapse rates owing to lower heights with the base of the trough overhead, isolated thunder chances will be in the offing until a weak cool front pushes through by mid-late afternoon and shuts off any additional chances for precipitation. This potential for thunder will be rather limited as temperatures only warm into the mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s. One more cool summer night will be in store Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a ~1020 mb surface ridge slides across the Bluegrass. Temperatures will drop into the mid 50s on ridges and upper 40s to lower 50s in valleys, allowing for some areas of valley fog. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 3 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 There is good model agreement with the overall upper air pattern through the forecast period. The long wave trough over the eastern U.S. at the beginning of the period will be lifting out with more zonal flow becoming established across our area. A couple of short wave troughs will move through the mean flow during latter part of the week, with the most significant short wave moving across the Great Lakes this weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be moving off to our east on Wednesday. As a result temperatures will begin to warm and with return flow developing moisture will also be on the increase across the area through the latter part of the week. Wednesday will still have dewpoints in the 50s, but after that dewpoints will go back into the 60s, with mid and upper 60 dewpoints expected for the remainder of the forecast period. By Thursday afternoon a short wave passing by to our north may result in a few storms in the northern part of the area while moisture returning from the south will bring a slight chance of storms to the south. With a slow moving front to our north at the end of the week, and moisture continuing to increase, the storm threat will expand on Friday. However storm chances on Friday will remain relatively low. The best chance for showers and storms will occur on Saturday into Saturday night as a more significant short wave and associated surface low moving across the Great Lakes results in a southward push of the cold front. The front will stall in the OH valley and this will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into next week. Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s on Thursday, but the daily threat of showers and storms will keep maximums in the lower 80s for most days from the weekend into early next week. With the increase in dewpoints after Wednesday we`ll see our typical summer lows of muggy 60s from the end of the week into next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017 VFR conditions look to hold on through the period. Clouds will thicken and lower to around 6k feet agl from northwest to southeast tonight, as a weak cold front approaches. A few showers will threaten from late tonight into Tuesday morning, before chances diminish into the afternoon as the cold front exits. Light and variable winds will turn more out of the northwest at around 5 kts once again into Tuesday.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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