Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 Areas of dense fog will continue across eastern Kentucky this morning, with widespread 1/4 mile or less visibilities nearer the Interstate 64 corridor down toward Mountain Parkway where surface saturation has occurred more easily due to cooler temperatures and lack of boundary layer mixing Sunday. Fog will undoubtedly impact other locales across eastern Kentucky this morning, but not seeing widespread 1/4 mile or less visibilities at this time south of a West Liberty to Irvine line. Big Sandy and Monticello Regional Airports have seen periods of dense fog, so may have to eventually expand the Dense Fog Advisory farther south this morning if this persists. Following turbulent mixing and fog dissipating by mid morning, tranquil weather will be in the offing for Washington`s Birthday as deep layer subsidence dominates eastern Kentucky. Bands of cirrus will move overhead downstream of a rather narrow upper trough spanning the Canadian Prairies to Mexico. Well above normal temperatures will be in store as 850 mb thermal ridging approaches the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, but a stout low level subsidence inversion below 900 mb will preclude this from being fully mixed to the surface. Nonetheless, highs should still top out in the mid- upper 60s with a few readings in the 70s possible near and south of Hal Rogers Parkway. Patchy fog will be possible tonight, mainly in the valleys where crossover temperatures will be closer to being reached, as high pressure nudges east downstream of the approaching upper trough. Low temperatures look to bottom out in the upper 40s to low 50s on ridges and closer to the mid 40s in valleys. Lowering clouds will be on the increase through the day Tuesday as low pressure encroaches upon the Bluegrass. Isolated to scattered rain showers will develop later into the afternoon, but not expecting much in the way of appreciable precipitation through Tuesday afternoon as the northern segment of the trough dampens through the Ohio Valley. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 The extended period looks like it will be fairly active, with periods of precipitation expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, Wednesday night through Thursday night, and Friday through Saturday. The models were in pretty good agreement regarding timing of weather systems across the region toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. The best chances for rain look to be Tuesday night and Friday night into Saturday. The model data is suggesting the possibility of some thunderstorms Thursday into early Thursday evening, and again Friday into early Friday night. A strong cold front is forecast to move across the at the end of the week, so will need to closely monitor the model data for the possibility of strong storms Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures are still expected to be well above normal through out the extended. High temperatures are still forecast to max out in the upper 60s on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week by far, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s expected on that day. Highs on Saturday and Sunday should be considerably cooler, owing to the intrusion of much cooler air into the region behind the cold front that will pass through the area on Saturday. Max readings over the weekend are expected to be in the 50s. Nightly lows will also be quite unseasonable, with min values forecast to drop only into the low to mid 50s Tuesday night through Thursday night. Once the cooler air settles over the area this weekend, we could see lows in the 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. Saturday will mark the transition from one air mass to another, with lows in the low to mid 40s expected that morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 Fog and subsequent visibility restrictions continue to be the primary concern of note tonight and early Monday morning. SYM is already seeing LIFR/IFR visibilities with VLIFR possible later tonight through the morning commute, especially near Mountain Parkway to the Interstate 64 corridor and points north. This will mix out by mid morning as heating ensues and VFR conditions return with nothing more than some high clouds streaming in. Easterly winds will remain light near or below 5 mph through the day. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-104-106. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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