Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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494 FXUS63 KJKL 280244 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1044 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1044 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 Made a few adjustments to the temperatures based on the current trends in observations. Some of the cooler valleys in the east are on pace to achieve upper 40s, and lowered a few sites a degree or so based on the rate of drop. Also included a bit more of a ridge/valley split as the high pressure center gradually moves east into West Virginia/Virginia by dawn. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 708 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 Scattered cumulus from earlier this afternoon is dissipating quickly. Have freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points into this evening. Will reassess the lows a bit later this evening, but at first glance, the current temperatures look very reasonable.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 Surface high pressure will move across our area tonight and then off to our east tomorrow. Afternoon cu field will diminish by around sunset leaving clear skies and calm winds overnight. These nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions will enable temps to plummet into the upper 40s to low 50s. Another beautiful day is in store for tomorrow with sunshine and low humidity helping boost temps back into the lower 80s. Wednesday night should again be relatively clear but southerly flow will begin to engage in response to an approaching weather system to our west. This will result in a wider temperature range across the area, with temps varying from the mid 50s in our deeper eastern valleys to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 406 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 Multiple shortwaves are expected to move across the region through the remainder of the workweek. By Friday afternoon, a upper level low will begin pushing southeast into the Dakotas, the shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes during the day Saturday, before pushing back northeast into Canada again. This will result in lowering heights across Kentucky through the weekend. By Monday, zonal flow will return, however several more shortwaves are expected to pass through and into the state. As for sensible weather, strong S to SW flow will be in place to start out the period, continuing into the weekend. This will allow for warm and moist air to flow in from the Gulf of Mexico, increasing temperatures back to normal values but also increasing the humidity levels as well. This airmass will interact with the passing shortwaves to create shower and thunderstorm chances both Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, a cold front will begin approaching the region from the west. This cold front will be associated with a low pressure system passing across the Upper Great Lakes in conjunction with the upper level low. The front is expected to stall out just along the Ohio River during the day Saturday, increasing the instability and resulting in more widespread showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky. The front is then expected to remain in place throughout the rest of the forecast period as it becomes elongated more west to east and loses considerable strength. However, there will still be enough lift present to keep shower and thunderstorm chances in from Sunday on. Since the cold front never actually pushes through the region by the end of the period, we will remain in the warm sector, with mid and upper 80s expected for high temperatures each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017 VFR conditions will dominate through the majority of the period thanks to high pressure settling to our east through tomorrow. A few cumulus will dissipate through dusk, with mainly clear skies expected through Wednesday. Some MVFR or worse fog will be found in the deeper river valleys between 06 and 13z, but this should steer clear of the TAF sites given the lower crossover temperatures that took place this afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable through Wednesday morning, before increasing to around 5 kts out of the south by the afternoon hours. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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