Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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537 FXUS63 KJKL 281146 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 746 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 746 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 Will continue to see patchy fog, mainly in river valleys, for the next hour or two before mixing ensues. Clearing skies will then take place with temperatures warming quickly underneath patchy cirrus. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 An upper low, responsible for yesterday`s cloud cover and tease of rainfall, will continue to push east across Lake Ontario and New England. An upper high across the Trans-Pecos region of southwest Texas will sprawl its influence up through the Great Lakes, resulting in stout warm air advection for much of the country, including eastern Kentucky. Northern stream energy from the Pacific into the Great Basin as well as across lower Canada into the northern United States will keep this attendant ridging from amplifying further. However, after seeing temperatures rebound well into the 70s today with a few locations near the Tennessee state line perhaps making a run at the 80 degree mark, record warmth looks on tap for Saturday. Satellite imagery continues to suggest enough breaks in the departing stratus and incoming cirrus to suggest patchy fog will be possible by daybreak this morning. This will quickly mix out by mid morning with clearing skies and temperatures warming well above normal this afternoon. Surface ridging sliding east of the Commonwealth tonight will allow for an appreciable ridge valley temperature split underneath clear skies, with valleys dipping into the upper 40s as ridges remain in the low-mid 50s. Afternoon dewpoints today should be low enough in a drier airmass to preclude much in the way of any fog tonight into Saturday morning. Strengthening southwest flow on the backside of the departing surface ridge will take shape for Saturday as anomalous temperatures aloft lead to unseasonable thickness/height values. Currently expecting both high temperature records at Jackson and London to be broken, with each site`s current record of 80 degrees being surpassed by temperatures topping out near 83. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 The story of the extended period will be possible record warmth through the middle of next week as upper level ridging remains positioned over the southeastern CONUS. The period starts with surface high pressure shifting away from Kentucky as a weak front approaches the region. This front will move into the region Sunday night and stall/fall apart, providing zero precipitation. High pressure pushes further into the Tennessee Valley Monday afternoon. Record warmth will then remain possible from Monday through Wednesday as southerly flow reinforces warm Gulf air into the region. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the period with highs in the lower to possibly mid 80s. Some of the model guidance suggests highs in the upper 80s on Tuesday but for now have generally raised temperatures a couple of degrees above Superblend Monday through Wednesday. Highs in the mid to upper 80s would be a staggering 20 degrees above normal for late October. The only chance for precipitation in the extended period looks to arrive on Thursday as a cold front and upper trough dig through Kentucky. This frontal passage should allow temperatures to cool into the upper 60s for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016 Patchy mid to high clouds will continue to approach eastern Kentucky, but VFR conditions will prevail as any lingering low clouds lift and break up this morning. Patchy valley fog will mix out and lift by mid morning with unlimited visibilities resulting thereafter. Light winds will veer from northeasterly to southeasterly through the day. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.