Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290130 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LIMIT SHOWERS TONIGHT TO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECTING THE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BUT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE... COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. PLENTY OF SC CLOUDS COVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOL MID LEVELS. A FEW SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER...HAS BEEN NOTED AFFECTING A SMALL PART OF THE AREA FROM THESE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO THE CAA...THE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA...VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIKEWISE... DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THEY SHOW THE LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND PASS OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING SOME LIFT IN THE PICTURE DURING THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY COOL PERIOD FOR EAST KENTUCKY DESPITE OUR BEING IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. RECORD LOWS WILL BE THREATENED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH NIGHTS. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ARE 51 FOR LONDON AND 55 FOR JACKSON... FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEY ARE 54 AND 53 RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE RIDGES TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED CAA...WHILE A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER VALLEYS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO FALL THERE TOMORROW NIGHT RATHER THAN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AROUND...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ENERGY RUNNING ABOVE KENTUCKY...THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER THIS EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES...AT TIMES...ON ACCOUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK SFC HIGH IN PLACE. USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT AN ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH MOS...BUT NOT TOO LOW GIVEN THE SLIM CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES A LITTLE TO THE WEST. WITH THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN...NO MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THING TO WATCH OUT FOR ARE SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF THE TROUGH. IN THE PAST...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESULTS IN SOME MCS SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY AND PREDICT AN MCS AT THIS TIME. IN GENERAL...WILL BE SEEING ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12 GMT BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FORECAST. ALSO MADE SOME CORRECTIONS DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 CLOUDS WILL BE INITIALLY DECREASING TONIGHT. ALL THE TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING SOME VALLEY FOG AND/OR STRATUS FORMING TONIGHT. WENT WITH THE TOOLS TONIGHT AND PUT IN SOME STRATUS AND MIST IN THE FORECAST. EXPECTING THE FOG TO LIFT AND THEN SOME BROKEN STRATO CU TOMORROW THAT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND HOW FAST THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF. BOTH OF THESE COULD HAVE PROFOUND EFFECTS ON THE TAFS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...JJ

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