Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 260737 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 237 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 140 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE LATEST OBS WHICH RAISED TEMPS A BIT ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES AND LOWERED THE DEWPOINTS THERE AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO THESE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS HAD TEMPS RUNNING A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SOME VALLEY FOG AND AT TIMES SME AND I35 HAVE REPORTED FOG AS WELL. THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY ALSO IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. WITH TEMPS IN VALLEYS BELOW FREEZING WE HAVE INCLUDED IT AS PATCHY FREEZING FOG. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY AND PROVIDE FOR LIGHT WINDS. WITH THESE CONDITIONS WOULD EXPECT A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES. THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE WITH SOME MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS AROUND FREEZING WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. HAVE TWEAKED THE CURRENT FORECAST TO EMPHASIZE THIS DEVELOPMENT WHILE REDUCING SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED ZFP TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND STRATOCU DECK IS ERODING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER FAIR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH TIME. ALSO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS. BUT NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES AND IN PARTICULAR THE VALLEY LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...SETTLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEARING DOWN ON EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH WILL HAVE A SOUTHERN PORTION OF ENERGY DIVE SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST AS THE NORTHERN PORTION SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHOOTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS BECOMES ZONAL WITH A NEW CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BECOMES CUT OFF INTO THE SOUTHERN CA REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW OPENS AND FINALLY EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE BAJA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED SEEMS TO HAVE THE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE END OF THE EXTENDED IS QUITE A BIT MURKY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE AREA. THE SEEMS TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHILE A SECOND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND...SOME OF THE HIGHER LOCATIONS MAY SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EXITS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. WITH SURFACE CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND NUDGING INTO THE OH VALLEY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET INTO THE GULF COAST WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO IS WHERE THE GFS AND EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THE EURO BEING WARM AND THE GFS BEING COOLER. THOUGH THE PATTERN AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR...WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF GULF OF MEXICO...DOES MERIT SOME WATCHING. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY VFR TO THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME MVFR OR LOCALLY LOWER FOG IN THE DEEPER NON TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JP

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