Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 271819 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE SNOW A BIT MORE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS. THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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