Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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675 FXUS63 KJKL 310545 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Quick update to refresh the hourly grids, accounting for most recent obs. Sent updated grids to NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1109 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure settling into the area with a dry airmass has left us with a decent dew point spread heading into tonight. This may hinder fog development outside of the deep river valleys. The forecast still looks good to go as the patchy fog still seems reasonable. UPDATE Issued at 953 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Issued an update to upload the latest observations. With high pressure in control, clear and dry conditions will persist. The current forecast is good to go. UPDATE Issued at 653 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 With high pressure mainly in control, and despite a few showers in the far southeast, conditions will be dry and pleasant across the area this evening. Updated the grids with the most current observations. The rest of the forecast remains on track. The only concern tonight will be fog development.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front continues to move southeast and is slowly moving into VA and East TN. A few sprinkles or very light showers are likely falling from some of the convection, but thunderstorms have dissipated or moved into SW VA or East TN. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure is building into the region with a weak corresponding shortwave ridging. This evening through tonight, the sfc and mid level ridge will build into the region and cu should dissipate leading to clearing. This may set the stage for some valley fog and fog to develop where rain occurred earlier today. Drier air continues to mix down as well as advect in from the north, and lows tonight should average a few degrees cooler than this morning, especially in valley locations. For Tuesday into Tuesday night, ridging should continue to dominate although a mid level trough and cold front will begin to approach late in the period and mid and high level moisture should begin to increase late as well. Fog should lift and dissipate within one to two hours after sunrise and cu is expected to again develop on Tuesday, but showers and thunderstorms should be confined to closer to the crest of the Appalachians and points further southeast where the lingering mid level disturbance from Bonnie meanders over the Carolinas. Skies should become mostly clear again on Tuesday night and valley fog should form again in the river valleys. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Moisture return on the backside of the high shifting east will bring slightly better moisture into the area by Wednesday. While no triggers for convection will likely be present, some localized convergence around the higher terrain in southeast Kentucky could spark a few very isolated showers or thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon. Most areas will likely stay dry into Wednesday night. A better chance of rain will arrive on Thursday as a shortwave trough pushes across the Ohio river valley. Moisture will continue to pool ahead of an approaching cold front and generate better coverage of showers and storms from Thursday into Thursday night. Have continued to trend pops upward during these periods. While plenty of instability will be present...shear will be somewhat weak. However, a few strong storms couldn`t be ruled out Thursday afternoon and evening. Cold front will then work eastward late Thursday night into Friday with rain chances continuing along and just ahead of the boundary. Instability will wane by Thursday night and may have a tough time returning on Friday with the increased cloud cover and ongoing shower activity. However, will bring back a small chance of thunder in the south by late Friday morning into the early afternoon, before everything slides on southward. The start of the weekend is looking nice with lesser humidity and dry weather to start on Saturday. Rain chances may return Sunday, but models are in less agreement on the details as we head into Sunday. GFS wants to bring a significant shortwave trough across the area while the ECMWF is much less amplified. Rain chances will come back Sunday, but its still very much uncertain. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 With high pressure taking hold of the area, skies will remain clear. The only exception are some high level clouds moving in from the west. However, these high level clouds will not have any impact on fog development tonight in the river valleys. There isn`t much moisture to work with, but MVFR visibility and BR is still possible at the TAF sites, except JKL. After the fog dissipates, can expect VFR conditions to prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light through the period.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JVM

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