Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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433 FXUS63 KJKL 030245 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1045 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BORDER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. STILL HAVE SOME VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE FAR EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST DUE TO MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS POINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR LESSONING POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED DURING THE 9PM HOUR GIVEN THE LACK OF FURTHER CONCERNS. THE FFA/HWO/AND FORECAST PACKAGE WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMOVAL OF THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...UPDATED THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO MAKE SURE THEY WERE STILL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...THOUGH NO FURTHER FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY...ALLOWING IT TO BOTH LIGHTEN UP AND EVEN DIMINISH IS SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THIS LATEST TREND. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...DID LEAVE IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...WENT AHEAD AND SHOWED A FASTER DIMINISHMENT OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WHAT RAIN WE DO HAVE LEFT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN ANY FURTHER FLOODING CONCERNS. WENT AHEAD AND RERAN ALL WEATHER GRIDS FROM NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO SHOW COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF PROBABILITY...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALSO... MADE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE REFLECTING THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF AFTERNOON TEMPS...AS RAIN HAS KEPT CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALL CHANGED HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH A FEW STRAY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOG THAT INUNDATED THE TAF SITES EARLIER AS THE RAIN CAME TO AN END HAS SINCE LIFTED...THOUGH A LOW CIG DECK HAS CONTINUED AT MOST TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT...COULDN/T RULE OUT SOME FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A LOW CIG EVENT. IFR TO LIFR /OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS/ CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJKL WHERE IT IS ALREADY ONGOING. SOME VARIATION IN AND OUT OF THESE CATEGORIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF JKL AND SJS...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE NW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JMW

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