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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 100814
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
314 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

BASED ON TRENDS OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE SREF AND GFS MODELS
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...SKY COVER...WINDS PER THE SREF MODEL
OUTPUT. ADJUSTED QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY PER LATEST MODEL DATA. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS NARROW BANDS OF SNOW FORMING ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE ISOLATED AND NARROW CORRIDORS
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL FROM TIME TO TIME. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN EFFECT PRETTY MUCH AS IS. SNOW HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND AT NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL EXPECTING UP TO INCH OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE
FROM INEZ TO MOUNT VERNON AND WEST OF LINE FROM PAINTSVILLE TO
MONTICELLO. AREAS EAST OF PAINTSVILLE TO JACKSON TO LONDON LINE CAN
EXPECT TWO TO THREE INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND
DONE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE BASED
ON THE LATEST HPC QPF AND NAM12 FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COME IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING AROUND 40 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS
WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE INTO THE MID 30S. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FAVORED THE COOLER MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR TODAY...ACCOUNTING FOR SNOWFALL
AND CLOUD COVER...AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER METMOS FOR TOMORROW
ACCOUNTING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND THE SHIFTING
OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE HIGH AND
DRY...ALBEIT QUITE COOL...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 20 POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE US WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT IS SOME COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND FAIR
WEATHER. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MODEL DIFFERENCE ARE BECOMING
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WEST CENTRAL US. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THIS COULD REALLY MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THESE PHASING OF THESE TROUGHS COULD ALSO MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. TRIED TO DO A MODEL BLEND AND SLOW DOWN
THE GFS A BIT...HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS QUITE
LOW...HOWEVER THE GENERAL PATTERN PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...NUDGED THE MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE ECMWF DURING THE MID
PART OF THE PERIOD...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART...WAS A BIT COOLER THAN
THE MODEL BLEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT HAS INCREASED WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...AND ALL SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS...AND VSBY AT THE TAF SITES STARTING BETWEEN 6Z TO
9Z THROUGH ABOUT 13Z TO 16Z. CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
DURING PERIODS OF SNOW FALL AS HEAVIER BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE SEE A BRIEF PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ044-050>052.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ085>088-110-113-115>120.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ