Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300029 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 829 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017 Hourly grids were updated for convective trends. The convection is generally diurnally driven and should continue to wane over the next couple of hours with the threat of strong storms in diminishing at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017 20z sfc analysis shows a well defined warm front north of the Ohio River. This has placed eastern Kentucky in the strong warm sector of the larger weather system. This warm dome of air will suppress convection through evening and into the night - though a stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible - mainly along and north of the Mountain Parkway and perhaps in the higher terrain near the Virginia border. The sfc and aloft ridging associated with the dome of warm air is protecting the area from the plague of flash flooding and near continuous storms through the midwest and into the northern Ohio Valley. It is also responsible for the record warmth today, and potentially tomorrow, with readings today in the low 80s north to the upper 80s south. Dewpoints at the same time are running in the mid 60s most places with limited mix-down evident. Winds are running from the south at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts from the southwest at up to 20 mph - mainly in our west. The models are in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a extremely deep closed low lifting from the Southern Plains north and east into the western Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. Over eastern Kentucky strong ridging will retreat through the day Sunday with height falls pushing into the area from the west with the passage of the closed low. With such good agreement on the low the consensus blend should provide a decent start for the grids. Sensible weather will feature a mild night with a bit of a ridge to valley split developing despite some mainly thin high clouds and fairly high dewpoints. Still cannot rule out a stray storm or shower through midnight, though, but mainly just for locations near and north of the Mountain Parkway. For Sunday, another very warm day will threaten record temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Again a potential for a stray storm will exist on the fringes of the CWA but the capping dome of warm air should hold. Winds look to pick up during the afternoon with some gusts to 30 or 35 mph possible - mainly in the western portions of the Cumberland Valley and for spots closer to the Bluegrass region. Will highlight this concern in the HWO. A cold front will progress through the state Sunday night into Monday morning with a good shot at thunder accompanying the associated widespread band of showers. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for all the grids with some adjustments for ridge to valley T distinctions tonight and again to a lesser extent on Sunday night. Also beefed up PoPs right with the front Sunday night as it looks like most places will see measurable QPF when the boundary does go through. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 255 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017 The models were in good agreement with the general upper level flow pattern through the period. The latest data are suggesting that we will see two periods of active weather in the extended. The first will be during the day on Monday into early Monday evening, as an area of low pressure aloft moves across the upper Great Lakes region to begin the week. A surface cold front trailing from the parent low will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky on Monday. The rain should quickly taper off through the late afternoon and early evening hours, with the last precipitation exiting the region by 4 or 5Z Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then expected to temporarily settle over the area Monday and through Tuesday night, bringing a brief period of dry weather to the area. The primary concern for next week will the period from Wednesday onward. A surface is forecast to stall out across the area. As low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves northward and encounters this boundary, repeated rounds of showers and storms are expected. The front should remain in place for a few days, as an area of low pressure along the western end of the boundary basically sits in place over the southern Plains as it slowly intensifies. The rain chances will likely last through the weekend as the front will have a difficult time moving away from the area. Temperatures should start out close to normal, with highs in the lower 70s forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Conditions should be warm for Wednesday, as southerly flow and scant cloud cover allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s for most locations before the rain begins in earnest across the area. After that, however, we should see below normal daily highs in the 60s, as widespread cloud cover and persistent rain keeps temperatures from rising very much each day. Nightly lows should generally be in the 40s and 50s to begin the period, and in the 40s the last few nights of the extended. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017 Mainly VFR flight conditions can be expected throughout the forecast period thanks to ridging aloft and at the sfc. Remaining isolated showers and storms should diminish through 2Z with these possibly affecting SYM, with the other TAF sites remaining dry. Winds will be light through 12Z, then pick up out of the south at 10 to 15kt on average with gusts of 20 to 30kt possible as a cold front begins to approach. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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