Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 021945 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME NEAR SEVERE AND EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORM WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE A REAL ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE AS THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE STEADILY BREAKING DOWN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP BENEATH IT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES AND STRENGTHENS...IT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL END UP BEING OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD...HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE DIGS IN A BIT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE SLUGGISH FRONT SET OFF REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAX OUT BELOW NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...AS THE BULK OF COOL AIR SHOULD STILL BE TRAPPED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WARM UP ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS THAT DAY WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 EASTERN KENTUCKY IS PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA WHICH WE ARE WATCHING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND THERE IS ALSO A FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LOTS OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS. PUT SOME TEMPO CONDITIONS IN THE TAF AS THE BEST ESTIMATE AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AFFECT THEM. EXPECT SOME VLIFR TO FORM AT THE TAF STATIONS AS WELL AS THE VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JJ

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