Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EST THU FEB 23 2017 Morning surface analysis showing surface high pressure parked off the Carolina coast line. This is bringing some return flow to the region with winds out of the SE to SW for most. The valley sites have been able to decouple and the has lead to areas of dense fog especially in locations that saw rain yesterday and/or nearer bodies of water. Overall think the SPS will handle the situation, as we could see improvements as high clouds move into the region. WV loop does show a weak upper level wave moving east out of Missouri this morning with weak mid to upper level QV convergence seen in portions of southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This combined with mid level moisture being transported from the Baja is inducing a line of lower clouds to our NW, and this lines up well with some of the short term guidance data. That said did keep some isolated showers mainly north of the Mountain Parkway, but think the instability is overdone for this afternoon in much of the short term guidance. That said, did opt to remove thunder for the afternoon and this also aligns with the SPC thinking at this time. Clouds and potential for precip will keep temps in the low 70s for most which remains 20 degrees above normal for his time of year. All the focus will shift to the west, as deepening surface low and upper level system takes shape across the Central Plains by tonight. This dynamic system will begin to induce a LLJ out ahead of the main system, but the valleys will still have a chance to decouple. This could lead to some slight temp splits and perhaps some patchy fog. However do think as low level inversion mixes out the winds will begin to kick up early in the day Friday. Winds of 25 to 30 mph will be common in the afternoon across portions of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. Right now model soundings suggest the driest air is not quite taped into, but this will have to be looked at for brief window of fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. Also this could lead to even higher afternoon temperatures with many locales looking at upper 70s and some even closing in on 80 degrees. These kind of temperatures would shatter the current record high temperatures for Friday of 71 at JKL and 70 at LOZ. Based on model trends think the Friday afternoon period will remain dry for most and therefore did slow POPs from what the model blend produced. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM EST THU FEB 23 2017 Available shortly... && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST WED FEB 22 2017 The TAF period will be a complicated one with several dependent variables to deal with. The period is beginning with some lower stratus streaming across the Bluegrass and some high clouds mixed in at times across the remainder of the region. Valley locations that have cleared and decoupled are seeing widespread to areas of dense fog. This will as usual be more dense in areas that saw more rainfall yesterday and/or areas nearer bodies of water. The TAF sites are currently not seeing any issues with most of the ridge sites remaining mixed this hour. The only question at some of the elevated sites will be does any fog actually advect in toward dawn and right now will leave that thought out given low confidence. The next issue will be cloud cover overnight and just how much are we going to see. The guidance is certainly struggling initiation wise including much of the short term guidance, and this is making for a challenging sky cover forecast. Right now sticking close to previous forecast and given the HRRR which is the best guidance right now has clouds developing toward dawn. That said it does look like this will be in the low MVFR range at this point. Winds will remain light through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.