Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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502 FXUS63 KJKL 060015 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 715 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SAVED AND SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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