Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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389 FXUS63 KJKL 200654 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 254 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Benign evening thus far with no major updates to the forecast needed. Made some minor adjustments to make sure the near term forecasts for temps, dew points, and winds were on track with the current observations. All changes have been sent to NDFD/web. No updates to the ongoing forecast package are needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 539 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Forecast is well on track so far for late this afternoon. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the current conditions. This resulted in only minor changes. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 253 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered near the Eastern Tennessee and Kentucky borders this afternoon. This surface high in combination with the building ridge will keep the period warm and dry. The challenges in the forecast will be how much fog and how low the temperatures go particularly in the valleys. That said, will remain close to what we have had going for overnight lows given the colder sites have been running close the the coldest temperature in the COOP MOS guide. This will keep upper 30s to lower 40s in the eastern deeper valleys with mid to upper 40s on the ridges. Friday we will remain sunny and calm with temperatures topping out into the mid to upper 70s for Friday. This will be in some cases 10 degrees above average for this time of year. The upper level ridge does start to march east Friday night, and some return moisture in the upper levels could lead to increase high clouds overnight. Despite this we will still see some ridge/valley temperature split and patchy dense valley fog. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017 The pattern remains essentially the same in the extended. We are expecting a ridge of high pressure to bring warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky over the weekend. Highs on Saturday and Sunday are forecast to max out in the mid to upper 70s across the area as the ridge exerts its influence. The next chance for rain should arrive sometime Sunday night, although the models are having a difficult time honing in on a common solution regarding the timing of this precipitation. A large trough of low pressure aloft, and its associated surface cold front, will be what trigger rain showers across the area to begin the new work week. The highest probability of rain should occur from early Monday morning through late Tuesday morning, as the cold front moves across the region. The rain should then steadily taper off Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the trough pulls off to our east. A few rain showers may linger across the area on Wednesday, as residual moisture invades the area on the back side of the departing trough. The passage of this upper level system is expected to usher in another shot of cold air. After seeing highs peaking in the lower 70s on Monday, a steady cool down is on tap. Max temperatures on Tuesday may only make into the low to mid 60s as the cooler air begins its initial push. By Wednesday, the colder air mass should be firmly entrenched, as will be evidenced by high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s on that day. Nightly lows should be generally in the 50s Saturday night through Monday night. After that, the real cool down begins, with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s forecast for Wednesday morning, and the mid to upper 30s for Thursday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017 Fog will affect the typical valley locations through early morning. It will also likely affect KSME and KLOZ for a time around sunrise. Aside from this, VFR conditions will prevail, with little in the way of wind. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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