Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 111116 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 716 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALL FRONTAL ACTIVITY KEEPING ITS DISTANCE. AS SUCH...THIS IS MOSTLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT THE USUAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL BE BURNING OFF BY 8 AM. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND CREEP UP TO NEAR 90 TOMORROW. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...IT WILL BE HOT...BUT NOT UNBEARABLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN STATES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHILE THERE WILL BE RATHER BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN THE START OF A PERIOD OF HEIGHT FALLS AND AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. A SERIES OF A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THEY ROTATE AROUND A RATHER DEEP MID SUMMER UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE RETREATING BACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SOUTHERN END APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THEN A STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIVE SOUTH AND OVERTAKE THE INITIAL BOUNDARY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE IT BEING MID JULY IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ESPECIALLY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN KY FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST AND A RELIEF TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF MCS ACTIVITY LIKELY DETERMINING IF...WHEN AND WHERE THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THE PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN...MANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH TO 6 WEEKS SHOULD RECEIVE SOME RELIEF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 THE VALLEY FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BY 1300Z AND THEN STAY VFR UNTIL NEAR DAWN TOMORROW. EXPECTING THE FOG TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JJ

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