Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 230719 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 319 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 Upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain in place this weekend with persistence the way to go with highs and lows. Thus, will maintain warm afternoon highs in the forecast with cool morning lows. This mornings fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. With another day of good mixing with dewpoints potentially dipping into the upper 50s, the fog tonight should be more limited to the river valleys and not quite as dense either. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 An area of high pressure and an upper level ridge will remain in control of the weather through midweek. This will continue to promote above normal temperatures, generally in the mid and upper 80s. By Thursday, heights will begin to decrease across Kentucky as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will also make its way SE towards the CWA, traversing sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. Latest model trends continue to show this front losing considerable strength by the time it reaches eastern KY, due in part to the parent low pressure system moving much farther northward, well into NE Canada. The ECMWF model still supports a dry forecast as the front moves over, while the GFS is dry up until Thursday afternoon, at which point diurnal influences will help to produce some light showers with low QPF values. Continued to go with the blend between the two, which supports only isolated showers at best Thursday afternoon. Cooler temps and lack of instability will prevent thunder wording. Behind this cold front, another reinforcing cold front is expected to end out the period. These two systems will bring the push of more seasonable temperatures into the CWA to end out the week and through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017 The only concern during the period will be dense late night/early morning fog. As usual, it will start in deep valleys and grow in breadth and depth through sunrise. Do not have high confidence in TAF forecasts involving the fog, and have depended to a large extent on persistence from last night. Fog will dissipate by late morning in most locations. Aside from the fog, conditions will be VFR. Winds will be 5 kts or less. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL/KAS

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