Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300250 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1050 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Showers continue to move NW across the Bluegrass and far eastern KY and mean while the showers across the Lake Cumberland region continue to diminish. The overall better coverage resides in the Bluegrass where cloud tops actually cooled slightly this evening. Therefore went categorical POPs in this region, and the HRRR seemed to provide the best trend and initialization. However wane these showers over the next 3 hours as models and analysis would suggest including the HRRR. Also added patchy dense fog into the grids and will be most prevalent in heavier showers and areas that have seen more rain through the day. Other minor adjustments to obs and trend will wrap up this update. UPDATE Issued at 656 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 The more scattered coverage of showers and isolated storms resides across the far east this evening and another area of just showers across the Lake Cumberland region this hour. Between these two areas is a relative lull and even clearing skies. This is all being aided by a upper level low that is generally centered across south central KY this evening. Overall think the forecast package in the near term looks on track and will have to keep a eye on radar trends through the night. Did opt to remove thunder after 01Z, but kept in through then given the isolated strikes we have seen in the far east toward Letcher and Martin Counties. Otherwise only minor updates to latest obs and trends were needed. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 440 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 19z sfc (and aloft) analysis shows a stacked low spinning over Central Kentucky. This is clearly seen in the movement of the scattered convection throughout the region as well as the clouds on visible satellite. The convection was and is best developed in far eastern Kentucky - particularly in RLX`s area where some large hail has fallen. In fact, the storms to the east have been well organized with decent low level rotation and evidence of splitting cells. Will have to keep an eye on the far east and northeast parts of the area into the evening. Temperatures did not recover much from overnight lows today thanks to the clouds and pcpn. At 3 pm readings varied from the mid 50s in the east with the steadier rains to the lower 60s over the somewhat drier Cumberland Valley. Winds have been light and variable through the day with a tendency for them to come out of the north and northwest while dewpoints have fallen into the low to mid 50s most places. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a bowling ball of low heights centered over Central Kentucky through midday Friday. This feature will then meander back north to northwest into Saturday morning. Plenty of energy accompanies the heart of the low and will continue to spin over Kentucky. Late in the period there are some differences starting to show up among the models with the GFS the slowest to ease away from JKL and the NAM slightly quicker. Given the similarities in guidance will favor a blended solution with emphasis on the HRRR in the near term. Sensible weather will feature a chilly and damp evening for most with a potential for a couple of thunderstorms in the far east. Some small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storm that develop given the low freezing level. Fog will be possible overnight and not just confined to the valleys as stratus is expected to build down on the ridges, as well. Look for mainly a few scattered showers around the fringes of the CWA later tonight through Friday as the core of the upper low slips off to the west and we start to dry out. Clouds will remain, though, limiting the diurnal rise and fall through the rest of the forecast, but highs should be a category or two higher than today. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as a starting point for most grids into Friday morning with the SuperBlend used thereafter. Made only minor changes to the T grids based on our terrain. As for PoPs - ended up similar to a MOS blend through Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 The extended period should feature isolated rain showers to begin the period Saturday and Sunday, as a slow moving area of low pressure slowly rotates through the region. They system will have only meager lift an moisture associated with it, so any showers that form with it should be isolated to scattered at best, mainly for the western and northern portions of the forecast area. Once the upper low rotates out of the Ohio Valley and out of our area Sunday evening, the remainder of the extended should be dry and pleasant. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle over the region through out the upcoming work week, which would bring mostly clear to partly cloud skies, dry conditions, and light winds to eastern Kentucky. Daily highs are expected to top out in the 70s for most locations. A few spots along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway corridor may reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. Nightly lows should bottom out in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Starting out with lower CIGS at JKL,SYM, and SJS this evening and western sites seeing VFR. Overall think areas that saw decent rainfall today will stand the best chances for fog issues overnight. Therefore went for a period of IFR VIS across site of SYM and SJS. Other sites have been Trace and more hit or miss. The other issue the forecast soundings would suggest the potential for a stratus build down and therefore went at least MVFR CIGs for all the sites. This will clear through the morning on Friday as we get into the dry slot. Given the placement of the upper level low winds will be light through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ

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