Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290616 AAD AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 216 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO INCLUDE MORE FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. KI35 HAS RECENTLY FALLEN TO ONE HALF OF A MILE IN FOG AN INDICATOR WHAT IS PROBABLY OCCURRING IN MANY OF THESE VALLEY AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY ALREADY PRESENT OR SHOULD MATERIALIZE THERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE...BUT THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...OR BY THE 9 AM TO 10 AM WINDOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND POSSIBLY SOME VALLEY FOG. NOT QUITE SURE HOW PREVALENT THE FOG WILL BE...GIVEN MODELS INDICATING 850 MB WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP THE COLUMN MIXED. EVEN SO...DID INCLUDE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST. ALSO REFRESHED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LATEST RADAR INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE NIGHT AS CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS REFRESHED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I64. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL QUITE MILD AS WELL...WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PROGRESSIVE CHARACTERISTICS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OPENS INTO THE FRONT RANGE AS A CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND UP INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GIANT RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST OVER THE OH VALLEY...BRINGING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KENTUCKY AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WITH THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY NOON ON SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF DEVELOPMENT AND LIMITED CAPE...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS BUT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING CONVECTION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WILL BE AN ISSUE...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A CONCERN OF SOME STRONG STORMS. HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS INTO THE HWO. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COOL PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED LEADING TO A COOL AND DRY PERIOD BEYOND THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING VFR TO THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NON TAF SITES INITIALLY THOUGH MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LOZ AND SME AFTER 9Z. SOME NON TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES BEFORE 13Z. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH 14Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BE DEPARTING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN TAF SITES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD....GENERALLY FROM THE WEST INITIALLY BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JP

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