Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 101149 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 649 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 649 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Pesky stratus continues to linger about, but should see this lift and mix out by mid morning. Nonetheless, the coldest morning of the season thus far has materialized with temperatures ranging from the low-mid 20s across northeast Kentucky underneath this stratus, to very near single digits in valleys across southeast Kentucky. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 West/northwest flow will be in place aloft today following Friday`s upper trough. Remnant energy will remain across southern Canada into the Ohio Valley today, but precipitation will be limited to across the northern Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes in closer proximity to shortwave energy traversing Ontario and the Great Lakes along with an attendant surface low. Surface ridging will keep dry low levels in play locally, thus making for a dry Saturday across all of eastern Kentucky. Once any lingering low stratocumulus mixes out and/or lifts north this morning, cloud cover will be confined to above roughly 7k feet as some altocumulus and cirrus stream in. Although heights will slowly rise aloft as warmer air trickles in, high pressure overhead will keep cold air entrenched, spelling a chilly day once again with high temperatures only making it into the low-mid 30s. High pressure will shift east tonight, veering winds southeasterly as return flow ushers in yet warmer air aloft. However, given low wind speeds overnight, still expecting temperatures to fall through this evening and tonight following atmospheric decoupling. Will have to monitor mid-high clouds regarding exactly how far temperatures will be able to fall by daybreak Sunday, but currently expecting low-mid 20s for the most part. Far eastern Kentucky may see a better ridge/valley split nearer the departing ridge, but cloud cover may again put somewhat of a damper on this. Nonetheless, a few sheltered valleys should be able to reach the upper teens in the Big Sandy region. Backing southwesterly flow aloft on Sunday, downstream of an upper trough riding through the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes, will bring much warmer air in aloft. Temperatures should make a run at climatology as highs rebound into the mid-upper 40s. Some gusty south winds will be likely in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions as the pressure gradient tightens due to a surface low moving through the upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes. Not expecting much in the way if any rainfall prior to Sunday evening as better height falls and low level moisture recovery look to occur then. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 The extended period looks to start off wet with near normal temperatures Sunday night and Monday. A cold front is forecast to move across the region from the west to begin the period. This boundary will bring widespread rain showers with it as it moves off to the east. The best chance for rain will occur from late Sunday night through early Monday afternoon. The rain is then expected to taper from west to east Monday evening, with the last shower exiting eastern Kentucky late Monday evening. We can expect a break from the wet weather Tuesday, Tuesday night and most of Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure temporarily settles over the region. The air mass associated with this ridge will bring near normal temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky. The ridge will begin to break down and move off to our east late in the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a trough of low pressure ejects from the Plains and heads our way. This trough will be a bit disorganized, however, and will be a somewhat starved for moisture, so only isolated to scattered showers and are expected as this system moves across the region Wednesday afternoon and night. A mix of rain and snow is possible late Wednesday night, as colder air filters into the region. The precipitation may even transition to all snow by dawn on Thursday. The precipitation should be out of the area by early Thursday morning. A second ridge of high pressure will settle over the region Thursday through Friday morning. This system is forecast to bring another very cold air mass to the region to end out the week. In fact, we may see highs only in the 20s and 30s on Thursday and Friday. We will see another chance for precipitation Friday and Friday night, as an area of low pressure approaches from the south. The precipitation should start out as rain initially, but a quick transition to a rain/snow mix and then all snow is possible during the day on Friday, as surge of cold air associated with a northern stream trough pushes into our area. Some snowfall accumulations are possible Friday and Friday night, but confidence in the forecast that far out is very low at this time, so no specific snow amounts will be mentioned for now. Overall temperatures will start out near normal, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 50s Monday and Tuesday, with Monday being the warmer of the two days. A cool down should begin on Wednesday, with highs expected to top out at below normal values between the mid 30s and mid 40s. The end of the week will see a dramatic chill occur, with highs ranging from the mid 20s to the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday. Nightly lows will also vary greatly, with min values in the upper 30s and lower 40s possible Sunday night and in the 30s Monday night and Tuesday night. After that, we can expected progressively colder temperatures, with lows bottoming out in the teens and 20s from Wednesday night through Friday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 649 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Only aviation note of concern will be a stratus deck slowly tracking eastward. This and subsequent MVFR ceilings should erode by mid morning, leading to the return of VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and variable with high pressure parked overhead, before veering south/southeasterly near 5 mph later tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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