Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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465 FXUS63 KJKL 270801 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Short wave trough moving across the Northern Tier and eventually through the Great Lakes will flatten the mid/upper level ridging in place across the eastern CONUS through the short term. A storm complex currently rounding the western periphery of this ridge will remain well west and northwest of our area today. However, the gradual suppression of the ridge and increasing moisture in return flow around the ridge will allow for a growing threat of rain through the short term period, first across the Cumberland Plateau, possibly brushing our far southwestern zones later today and then over most of the forecast area Sunday. For sensible weather, summer like weather with hot and humid conditions will continue. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out across the far southwest and over the higher terrain to the southeast this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over much more of the area Sunday. Look for afternoon highs in the low 90s and tonights lows once again dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A strong upper level ridge will be over the region at the start of the period. Despite its presence, diurnal heating of our humid air mass could fuel a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. The upper ridge will weaken and break down during the long term period, and a slow and rather subtle transition of air masses looks like it will occur. High pressure passing to our north will bring slight drying early in the work week, which will limit our POP. As an upper level trough develops over the northeast CONUS, a further change in air mass is expected. Models depict a diffuse, poorly defined cold front dropping south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Once again, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as this happens, but the probability is low. Late in the work week, a continued transition to a cooler and drier air mass should occur as surface high pressure drops southeast out of Canada over the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Slightly warmer/direr air in place across most of the area this morning. Current thinking remains that terminals will see less of a threat for dense fog development given strong heating and lack of rain earlier today. But persistence, the nearby presence of weak surface ridging centered near the Great Lakes, and current hourly trends warrant at least some MVFR/IFR visibilities at LOZ/SME/SYM/SJS from approximately 8-13Z. JKL may see a brief decrease in VSBYS as fog lifts and rides upslope towards the airport from the nearby Quicksand river at dawn, the result of early morning heating in the valley kick starting our diurnally driven upslope flow. Thereafter VFR conditions with light winds will persist through the remainder of the day. Some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across the TN valley may ride northwest out of TN and just to the west of our far southwestern terminals late this afternoon. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...RAY/GREIF/GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.