Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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992 FXUS63 KJKL 271433 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1033 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 Showers/t`storms have become fairly widespread over the northeast portion of the area, and the POP has been increased for that area. Forcing mechanisms are weak, and nailing down when where development will occur is difficult today. Will need to further examine trends and latest model runs to see how morning convection may impact the outcome this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 The forecast remains on track so far this morning. A few showers and storms will be moving across the area early this morning. These will gradually increase in coverage as the morning wears on, and should be widespread across the area by this afternoon. The best chance for rain will be from this afternoon through tomorrow, as a cold front slowly moves across the region. Other than using the latest obs and short term model data to freshen up the hourly forecast grids, no changes to the forecast were necessary. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 A few rain showers have formed during the overnight, and should be moving into the area between 7 and 8Z. These should remain isolated to scattered through early this morning. This activity is likely firing up due to the presence of a weak low level jet. A few thunderstorms should begin forming across the area after the sun has been up for a couple of hours and some heating begins to occur. Through out the day today we can expect scattered showers and storms to increase in coverage as a cold front approaches from the north. The most widespread rain is anticipated tonight and Friday, as the cold front moves slowly across the region. Due to the high moisture content of the atmosphere, and the presence of the front, locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times, especially with stronger thunderstorms, or anywhere that multiple storms move repeatedly across the same locations. Based on the latest model data, the best potential for heavy rainfall should be from late this afternoon through tonight. Temperatures today will range from slightly below normal values north of the Hal Rogers Parkway, to slightly above normal values south of there. We can expect a dramatic cool down on Friday as the front moves through the area and widespread clouds and rain push across the region. Highs on Friday will likely only make to around 80. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 The models are in good agreement with an amplified long wave pattern to remain in place through the majority of the period. An upper level low will be cutting off as it moves from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic by this weekend, while ridging rules across the West. This will allow for a much more pleasant air mass across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by this weekend and into early next week. Troughing will remain across the eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, with surface high pressure eventually shifting off to the east, allowing for a gradual increase in temperature and humidity across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday evening, as a surface cold front sags southeast across the area. Thunder chances and locally heavy rains will be ending by around midnight, with the threat of showers continuing into Saturday morning, as a cutoff low deepens to our east, and the low level flow veers to the northwest. Dry weather will return by Saturday evening and looks to last through Wednesday morning, as surface high pressure builds in and low level winds remain out of the northeast. By Wednesday, the high will break down a bit and shift to the east, allowing for return flow. This will result in a few showers and storms threatening the Tennessee/Kentucky border by the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler through the weekend, with highs in the mid and upper 70s on Saturday, lower 80s Sunday and Monday, and then gradually warming back to seasonal normals in the mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through at least early this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will be moving across the area this morning, but these will gradually increase in coverage through out the day. By this afternoon and evening, all the TAF sites will likely have been affected by a shower or storm. MVFR or worse conditions will be possible with any thunderstorm, along with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Winds will be generally from the southwest at around 5 mph today, and light and variable from tonight through tomorrow. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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