Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240813 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 413 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 413 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 High pressure remains settled just to our NE, with upper level ridging in place. Mostly clear to clear skies will couple with southerly flow aloft and promote above normal temperatures yet again today, continuing into Monday as well. Overnight temps will continue to be mild as well, very similar to what we are experiencing early this morning. Fog has been slow to develop early this morning, but is now showing up well on the GOES-16 Fog Channel, mainly in the deeper river valleys. Expect this trend to continue for the upcoming night as well. After initially not including dense wording in the forecast, went back and added in it for this morning based on the latest fog channel trends and reports from a NWS forecaster. Have also resent forecast products to account for this change to dense wording as well. Once fog dissipates today and Monday, expect mostly clear conditions to take hold for the rest of the day. A few afternoon CU will be possible today, with soundings showing best support across the southern CWA where moisture will be a bit higher on the southern fringes of the high pressure system. Winds will remain light and variable through the period, generally under 5 knots. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 341 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 The extended should start off with well above normal temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the region. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday may reach the low to mid 80s across the area, compared to normal highs in the mid 70s. Low temperatures should also be quite warm to start the period, with minimum values in the lower 60s expected. The rest of the week should see a gradual return to normal or slightly below normal temperatures, as a trough of low pressure aloft brings cooler air to the region. Highs from Wednesday onward are forecast to max out in the 70s for most locations. A few spots on Saturday may not climb out of the mid to upper 60s. Low temperatures each night from Thursday night through the weekend are expected range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. The latest model blend and individual runs of the ECMWF and GFS models are all keeping the extended dry. Therefore, decided to go with the model blend and keep the extended dry for now. The overall weather pattern in the extended should feature surface high pressure and warm temperatures to start, with a trough aloft bringing cooler, but still dry, weather to the area from Thursday onward.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017 Update to previous discussion: Fog is slowly starting to show up on observations across the area, but is far less invasive at the TAF sites than last night at this time. Based on latest trends, not confident that SJS or SYM will see impacts originally expected. As such, went ahead and pulled prevailing MVFR conditions with tempo IFR/LIFR conditions, and replaced with prevailing VFR tempo MVFR conditions between 8 and 12Z instead. Unfortunately, confidence is still on the low end until fog does/doesn`t impact the TAF sites, so will make further amendments as needed. High pressure just to our NE will remain the driving factor through the TAF period. As has been the case for nights previous, conditions are favorable for fog development, especially in the valley locations. The setup will be very similar to last night, with onset of fog starting after 6Z, eventually dropping to LIFR or worse conditions in the valleys after 9Z and continuing through 12Z. At the TAF sites, a little bit more tricky as to if the fog will impact them. Based off of what occurred last night, tried to trend accordingly for timing, hedging towards slightly less impacts. Used tempo MVFR for JKL/SME/LOZ where it is possible fog may not impact TAF sites at all. However, given the impacts that occurred last night at SYM and SJS, trended towards predominate MVFR and TEMPO IFR conditions here. Will adjust as needed once fog begins setting up. Once fog dissipates this morning, expect mostly clear skies and VFR conditions to prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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