Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 192115 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 415 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017 A small area of showers has moved into the southern part of the JKL forecast area this afternoon. This is teaser in front of a large area of rain/showers over central and western KY at mid afternoon. The precip was the result of an upper level wave coupled with warm air advection. Models agree on this precip moving through the region tonight. Downslope flow will cut into the precip in our eastern counties, but even there it should eventually rain. However, precip totals will be lighter in the east. Most of the precip will be exiting to the northeast with the warm front around dawn on Friday, with just some spotty very light showers possibly lingering into the day due to persistent low level moisture. A few peaks at the sun in the warm air mass will push readings into the 60s during the day. Mild, benign weather is in store Friday night. Cloud cover on Friday night is somewhat uncertain. MOS data and blended model data suggest quite a bit of cloud cover. However, forecast soundings look like the clouds could break. Have played it toward the MOS and blended data for the time being. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017 The extended forecast period begins on Saturday with a continued active and somewhat progressive pattern through the weekend and into next week. The first feature of the extended will eject northeast from the lower MS valley and into the southern Appalachians bringing light rainfall into eastern Kentucky. As the next feature continues to lift north through the area, some decent instability will advect into the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. In fact, models and SPC show at least a slight chance for general thunder in the area. Will stay with collaboration with neighboring forecasters and SPC and keep thunder in the forecast through the weekend. In addition, the unseasonal airmass advecting into the area will allow for temperatures soaring into the upper 60s for highs across eastern Kentucky, possibly breaking a few records on Saturday and while not as quite as warm on Sunday, still a good 20 to 23 degrees above normal. Heading into Monday, another upper low dives into the lower MS valley before ejecting east and up along the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains bringing additional rain into eastern Kentucky. Expecting an additional half an inch with this rainfall to impact the far eastern Kentucky areas. As this feature exits, colder air filtering in behind may allow for rain to change to a mix of rain and snow on top of Black mountain on Monday night. After a break in the weather on Tuesday, another bout of southerly flow will allow high temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will climb near 60 degrees again before another bout of rainfall moves into the area late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. As the front passes through late Wednesday night, this will begin an overall cooling trend through Wednesday night and beyond Day 7. In summary, much of the extended remains warm and wet with the consensus being around a couple inches of rain through eastern Kentucky but the GFS is quite a bit wetter than the Euro on the Sunday night into Monday system. The consensus is a bit less but something to keep in mind heading into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017 Showers have started to move into the region from the southwest, and have resulted in localized mvfr visibility near the TN border at the start of the period. Elsewhere, conditions were VFR, but ceilings were showing an overall lowering trend. The increasing clouds and showers were due to a warm front approaching. Showers will overspread the rest of the region this afternoon and tonight. MVFR conditions (and perhaps some IFR in the west) will also spread northeast over more of the JKL forecast area, but the advance will be slowed over the far eastern part of Kentucky due to low level downslope wind flow. Showers will taper off with passage of the warm front from southwest to northeast overnight and early Friday morning. However, downslope flow in the east will also be lost with passage of the front, and all areas can expect MVFR conditions on Friday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...HAL/SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...HAL

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