Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011256 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 756 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 754 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO WARM THE LOWER LEVELS AND NOW HAVE SURFACE TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT SO HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON/S PRECIP ARRIVAL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND WHILE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE LESSENED INTO THE DAWN HOURS...NO PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED AT ANY OB SITE IN KY SO FAR. IN FACT...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRESENT OUT WEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z FEATURE SOME VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST. DESPITE WEAK RETURNS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NO PRECIP WILL LIKELY REAL THE SURFACE WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 DEGREES AND GREATER IN SOME AREAS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WOULD EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN UP AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL THEN EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH PWATS IN THE 0.70 TO 0.80 RANGE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WITH COLDER BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...EARLIER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE LEAVES QUITE QUICKLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT SOME AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH OMEGA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN TAKES OVER ON MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HINT AT A SECOND TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH SOME 30 MPH GUSTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDING WILL MAKE FOR SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS A SQUALL OR TWO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...FOR SNOW TOTALS...HAVE GONE WITH AN INCH OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT BORDER VIRGINIA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS MENTION IN THE HWO NOT ONLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT ALSO THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING INTENSITIES PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...SO DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSUE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY RECOVERING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR SOME BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THREATEN THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...INITIALLY AS RAIN...AND THEN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST AND SLOWER. THIS HAS IN GENERAL BROKEN WITH CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE OF CHILLY MORNINGS WITH TEENS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AS WINDS BACK AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 653 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON 18Z TO 22Z...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS HEAVIER RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DECREASING VISIBILITY. IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BEGIN THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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