Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 030220 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1020 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WAKE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY TRAILING THE LINEAR MCS THAT PASSED THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT PRODUCED MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT THE FRONT AND PUSHED IT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY STORM AROUND THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMATION...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE VALLEYS BY DAWN. HAVE INCLUDED THIS ALL IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH MORNING PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE FROM THE CONSSHORT. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES AND HWO HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IS FINALLY MOVING INTO THE NEIGHBORING STATES. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS AND APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING. HAD TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY DROPPED DOWN MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED AS THE LINE WENT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT FOG TO BE FORMING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IT WILL BE PATCHY...BUT MAINLY DENSE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM TONIGHT...SO DID NOT IMMEDIATELY END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME NEAR SEVERE AND EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORM WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE A REAL ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE AS THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE STEADILY BREAKING DOWN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP BENEATH IT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES AND STRENGTHENS...IT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL END UP BEING OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD...HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE DIGS IN A BIT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE SLUGGISH FRONT SET OFF REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAX OUT BELOW NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...AS THE BULK OF COOL AIR SHOULD STILL BE TRAPPED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WARM UP ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS THAT DAY WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AS SOME CLEARING OCCURS...EXPECT SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM. THE FOG SHOULD BE DENSE AND EVENTUALLY BRING ALL THE TAF STATIONS TO VLIFR. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z. FROM 00 TO 04Z...THE FOG MAY MOVE IN AND OUT OF AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT JKL AS SOME STRATUS MOVES OUT OF THE VALLEY AND MOVES ACROSS THE VSBY SENSOR. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JJ

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