Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 250800 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 Hourly temperatures have been updated to account for the latest trends in valley temperatures. A few of the normally cold spots in the Big Sandy Region likely will drop to the freezing mark or just below before leveling off or even rising late when the clouds increase and the pressure gradient increases. The increasing pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front is already evident on top of Black Mountain at the KY mesonet site, where winds are gusting into the 20 to 25 mph range with sustained winds near 15 mph there and at the Pike Co KY Mesonet site at 2770 ft msl. Winds in these locations should increase further overnight, into the 15 to 20 mph range, with gusts up around 30 mph per model trends. Winds and gusts about 2500 feet have been increased for the duration of the night. UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 Temperatures were cooling off faster than the previous forecast in eastern valley locations. Hourly temperatures were adjusted for these trends with min T lowered a few degrees for some of the normally colder locations. Otherwise, no other changes were needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 309 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 It was a cold start to the day with morning temperatures in the valleys in the lower to middle 20s. Under abundant sunshine temperatures have warmed into the lower 60s in much of the area this afternoon. With dewpoints in the 20s in the north and east, temperatures will fall quickly in the valleys this evening. A ridge valley temperature difference will develop especially in the east, and this is depicted in the forecast grids with lows in the middle 30s in the eastern valleys and in the middle 40s on the ridges. It is possible this may not be enough of a ridge valley difference and temperatures may need to be further adjusted this evening. Clouds will increase late tonight in advance of a cold front. The front will make its way across the area on Saturday. We will continue with the previous forecast thinking and keep the sprinkle threat in the forecast late tonight and Saturday. After the frontal passage on Saturday colder air will work its way back into the area, though we`ll only receive a glancing blow with the main cold air staying off to our north and northeast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Sunday night with an amplified but still rather progressive upper level pattern in place. Current trends place the upper level in a split flow with a northern stream flowing over the Rockies and a southern jet stream coming out of the four corners region. With the northern stream starved for moisture and lacking any significant flux, the eastern Kentucky area has and will remain dry for the first half of the extended forecast. This is in good agreement between the GFS and Euro with the area remaining dry at least through Wednesday. As such, with this scenario, no real change in air mass is expected through the first half of the extended as well. In fact, temperatures will remain near normal, if not a bit above. By Wednesday night, a shortwave tracking over the Plains along with a separate piece of energy along the southern stream by Thursday morning will form a front tracking into the OH Valley. This will provide the first strong surge of a change in air mass as warmer air is drawn north into the area with high temps reaching near 60. This will also provide a good chance of showers lasting into Friday. With a lack of good instability as well, will keep thunder out of the forecast. Models seem to be coming in better agreement but still lack strong consistency. Thus, will continue to stick with the super blend solution.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2017 VFR conditions currently expected to prevail through the period. Cloud decks will lower overnight into this morning as ceilings develop. Still anticipating these to remain in the 5-10k foot range or above, but could see some brief periods of ceilings nearing MVFR criteria at around 3k feet from mid morning into the afternoon as a cold front moves through eastern Kentucky. Regarding precipitation, a few sprinkles will be possible into mid-late afternoon. Increasing southwest winds of 5-10 knots tonight will further increase and veer northwesterly through the day Saturday while remaining near 10 knots with periodic gusts. May have to monitor lingering low clouds for ceiling potential this evening into tonight depending on how quickly high pressure builds in and low level moisture scours out. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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