Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291450 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 14z sfc analysis shows a stacked low descending into the southern Ohio Valley. This is bringing with it plenty of clouds and shower bands. The bulk of the showers (and a few thunderstorms) are moving north to northwest through the eastern portion of the CWA. The morning fog has, for the most part, broken up or lifted across the area. Temperatures are fairly uniform through eastern Kentucky - in the middle to upper 50s with dewpoints similar. Winds are generally from the north to northwest at around 5 mph. Based on the latest near term guidance, expect the clouds and shower threat to continue through the afternoon, largely affecting the eastern and northern parts of the CWA. Will continue the chance for thunderstorms into the evening with these showers. The grids have been updated with these thoughts in mind along with incorporating the latest obs and trends. The grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshened set of zones. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 We should see a lull in precipitation this morning as the lingering overnight showers exit the area. So have trended back pops mainly in the western half of the forecast area throughout the morning hours. Also refreshed the hourly temps to reflect most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Scattered showers continue to progress eastward through far East Kentucky this morning, well behind the cold frontal boundary that has already exited to the southeast. The deep upper level low that provided us with this showers is currently over southern Indiana and is expected to push into central Kentucky today. With the low centered over our forecast area, skies will remain mostly overcast throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the lower 60s. With upper level dynamics in place, showers and a slight chance of thunder will once again be possible today, peaking in the afternoon hours. Though, most high-res models keep the best chance for rain/storms in the far east and over West Virginia. Depending on how the upper low pivots across the area, along with the position the upper level jet, this certainly seems possible. Instability wanes tonight, and models agree on a dry slot wrapping around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up by dawn on Friday. The upper low is then progged to wobble a bit northwest throughout the day on Friday as the dry slot works further into our area. High temperatures should rebound slightly into the upper 60s and low 70s Friday afternoon as long as the dry slot comes to fruition and skies clear up a bit. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 The models remain in general agreement with an amplified long wave pattern to continue through the period. The Ohio Valley upper level low will gradually wobble its way back towards the Great Lakes, and eventually get absorbed into the Westerlies by early next week. Meanwhile, a deeper trough will be swinging through the western CONUS, sharpening up a ridge across the middle of the CONUS. This trough will move east into the Plains by the middle of next week, slowly shoving the ridge east of the Mississippi River. Model differences in timing and amplitude remain; however, there is general agreement on a slower trend to the pattern evolution by the middle of next week. A few more showers will continue to be in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky through Saturday night, as the upper low slowly pulls away to the north. Generally dry weather can then be expected through the rest of the period, as we come under the influence of the ridge axis moving in from the west. Temperatures will be modifying through the period. Highs to start the weekend will be in the low to mid 70s, before reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Visibilities/CIGS have started to improve as winds began to mix out the column. This has led to variable conditions across the area this morning. CIGS should continue to improve throughout the morning as the upper level low moves over Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon and any heavier shower or storm could reduce conditions briefly. Later tonight, dependent on how much low level moisture sticks around and how many locations see rain today, fog will be possible. For now, have decided to include IFR fog across all TAF sites but this will need to be updated in future forecasts as confidence increases. Winds will remain around 5 knots or less throughout the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JVM

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