Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252352 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 752 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 752 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 An eroding and eastward moving stratocumulus deck will give way to some approaching mid-high clouds from the west this evening and tonight. Patchy fog therefore continues to be a good bet given the moist ground and light winds accompanying this clearing. The approaching mid and high clouds may be enough to keep this from becoming too widespread or dense, but valley locales certainly look to see some low visibilities tonight into Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 326 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a weak surface high nearby at best and we are stuck between two low pressure systems. The biggest issue today has been the stratocu and overall this seem to be down ticking slowly this afternoon. The guidance remains optimistic and given the higher heights think this is reasonable. Also winds will veer around to the SE tonight, and this should also aid clearing the clouds with more favorable downslope flow. The clearing will also leave the opportunity for some patchy mostly valley fog tonight. Also some slight temperature splits in the deeper valleys. Wednesday day will feature height rises and WAA ahead of the next front. That said, low to mid 80s are not out of the question. Particularly if downsloping leads to a bit dryer air at the surface. The aforementioned weakening surface front will move east toward the region Wednesday night, with some timing differences in the model output. Most CAMs would suggest at least some showers are possible in the Lake Cumberland region by dawn, but other guidance is a bit slower. Felt like slight to chance POPs was not out of the question given the blend. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 326 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with an active and somewhat amplified period. During this time, the models are in fair agreement as a trough and surface cold front advances east but it being sheared out against stout blocking just off the East Coast. The surface low will lift far to the north into the Great Lakes as the front weakens and pushes into eastern Kentucky. Nevertheless, minimal instability and plenty of shear will produce some possibilities of damaging winds associated with a line or at least some gusty winds. A possible scenario could be the best convection farther to the north into OH and PA with the low. Heading into the weekend, a warm front will develop and lift north by Friday afternoon providing another period of showers and thunderstorms. The front lifts north of the CWA by Saturday putting the area in the warm sector. This will provide a strongly capped region with a few showers possible through Saturday afternoon. By Sunday morning, the cold front will push into Kentucky and then eastern Kentucky by the afternoon. This feature seems to be a bit more dynamic than the previous system but it is still unclear if there is any severe potential at this time. Temperatures have been quite warm and dew points look to be in the 60s according to the super blend so this scenario will be monitored for the severe potential. The overall values put in place by the blend seemed reasonable with the models so little changes were made. The one certainty through the extended and for the month of April for that matter is the abnormally warm temperatures. With the warm temps so far and the forecast through the end of the month, April will likely go down as one of the warmest months. The forecast suggests that the record highs at Jackson for the 28th and 29th stand a chance to be broken. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017 Low clouds continue to erode and move east this evening. Have opted to leave MVFR fog in the forecast for SME/LOZ/SYM given the earlier clearing, despite some mid-high clouds streaming in from the west. JKL may see some visibility/ceiling degradation early Wednesday morning as valley fog lifts, while SJS looks to stand the best chance of remaining VFR with the later arrival of clearing skies. Light winds overnight and moist soils will further promote the potential for fog, before VFR conditions return early-mid Wednesday morning through the evening. As winds veer south/southwesterly through the afternoon, speeds will increase to 5-10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.