Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 110913 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAYS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MERCURY PLUMMETS INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MOST LIKELY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY SNOW-PRONE RIDGES RECEIVING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND RAPID COLUMN COOLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABOVE REFERENCED GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM A POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SPOTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION LIKELY SEEING SUB- ZERO VALUES. ~1040 MB SURFACE RIDGING PLOWING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FOR MANY LOCALES WHILE AREAS NEARER THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE MAY BREACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. COOLER LOWS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO BACKING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE AT THE ONSET WHILE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S. FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND DAY RESPECTIVELY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. PHASING OF THESE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF CONTINUED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY WILL GREATLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS/PHASE. CENTRAL TO EASTERN CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO REMAIN CONTAINED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE WARMUP BY LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.| && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT LOZ AND SME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THOSE AIRPORTS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND THE SNOW. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...BKN TO OVC AT TIMES...SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 15 OR 16Z AS A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...AR

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