Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281754 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1254 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME CLOUD COVER STILL STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH REALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. THE SOUTHEAST POTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR HAS BECOME NEARLY CLEARED OUT WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES OVER HEAD...IN CONTRAST TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE STILL SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THIS CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS THE LAST FLURRY HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. UPSTREAM...CLOUD COVER FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM IN IN THE FORM OF A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MID LEVEL DECK INTO TONIGHT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXACTLY HOW MUCH THIS IMPACTS THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE EAST. ALSO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST TONIGHT...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...MAY REACH THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WHILE THE EXTREME VALLEYS IN THE EAST MAY INDEED STAY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IN MIND...HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT FLURRIES...ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER...AND ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND INTO TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW CONTINUED CLOUD COVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS OCCURRING HERE AND THERE. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE KEPT DOWN TODAY AND AS SUCH THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. IF THIS BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER MATERIALIZES IN THE SOUTH A BIT FAST...THERE MAY NEED TO BE A FORECAST UPDATE BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 AS EXPECTED...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVERTAKING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...LIKELY LIMITING ANY SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE TODAY. THUS...EXPECT A CHILLY DAY. FORECAST IS IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO WILL JUST FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY GRIDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON THIS MORNING. FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THEM BREAKING UP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE TRENDS...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE CLEARING WORK EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS MORE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE MID LEVEL...THEY SHOULD STILL ACT TO KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. BASED ON TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON`T CLEAR BACK OUT AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH HIGHS TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE AND MORE LIKELY TO SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 40S DOWN THAT WAY. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BACK OUT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE WARM FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LAG SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 20 TONIGHT...WITH RIDGES STAYING CLOSER TO 30. CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LARGER SPLIT THAN THIS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE...POSSIBLY KEEPING RIDGES MILDER. BY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT REALLY RAMPS UP. THE BEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY...AS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE A BIT SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WHICH FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SQUEEZE AGAINST A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP TRANSPORTING SHALLOW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND WOULD EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON. MOISTURE DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. THE FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH AND A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL OOZE INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WERE TRENDED DOWN ENOUGH SO THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX BY TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT IN. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PULL MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ENOUGH TEMPS FOR RAIN. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR NOW...HOWEVER THIS IS WHEN MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME IS LOW. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MAINLY 7 KFT CEILING OR LATER STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THOUGH A FEW CEILINGS MAY DIP TO MVFR CEILINGS BUT THIS IS BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY AS THE CLOUD LAYERS LIFT AND MORE MID LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTER 14Z WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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