Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290229 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1029 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK EARLY TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST OBS HAVE BEEN INGESTED INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IS STILL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS CONDITIONS WERE MUCH WARM TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP TO BE ISOLD AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DISSIPATING BY AROUND SUNSET. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE...MAKING IT FEEL LESS COMFORTABLE THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES...ONE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN BETWEEN THESE RIDGE CORES WILL AFFECT US THROUGH TIME. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN DIMINISHES WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES...ALBEIT LOW...WILL THEN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT REAL CONSENSUS ON WHERE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE BY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG AT SME AND LOZ AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...AR

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