Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240805 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 405 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING. DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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