Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 242006 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 406 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IT WILL PULL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES ALOFT. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS CONCERNING TIMING OF THIS PRECIP...AND A MODEL COMPROMISE WAS USED. VARIATION IN THE TIMING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POP FOR FRIDAY...AND SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT...MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AS A CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW GAINS STRENGTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MUCH OF KY REMAINS IN THIS RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WARM MOIST AIR TO BE ADVECTED IN. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STATIONARY AND BROADEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL FIND ITSELF ACROSS KY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALSO SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...STALLING...AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE WILL PUNCTURE THE AREA IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER...IN THE LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS BEGINS TO DETERIORATE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS WILL HAMPER SOME OF OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EARLY ON. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD CHANCES OF FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. GENERALLY LEFT THE 12 HOUR POPS UP TO THE ALLBLEND BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...THOUGH MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. BASED ON THE LOWS TRAJECTORY THROUGH /OR NEAR TO/ THE STATE OF KY...WE COULD BE IN LINE TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CONTINUED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND SURFACE LOW...WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AND ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW...BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WET END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. AS WAS STATED BEFORE...THE TIMING AND SET UP OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE WHAT DRIVES OUR PRECIP COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE COOLING...FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP. THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT 10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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