Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171859 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 259 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE WEATHER. SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO... THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE. THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JJ

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