Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220759 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 359 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 The short term discussion will follow soon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 The models are in good agreement with a more amplified long wave pattern to hold on through the beginning of this weekend. Troughing will mainly rule in the East, with ridging in the West. Details concerning the evolution of the pattern by this weekend and early next week become more murky, especially with regards to the now remnants of Harvey. As such, did not deviate from the blended guidance. Dry weather will be on tap for eastern Kentucky through Friday, as high pressure controls to our north. A weak inverted trough will then nose in from the southwest, bringing just a slight chance of showers to our Virginia border counties on Saturday. POPs will diurnally increase into next week as the inverted trough appears to sharpen up more; however, much will depend on the outcome of Harvey. Temperatures will average below normal through the period, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail at the TAF sites through early this afternoon. Valley fog is expected to develop through this morning with some local IFR conditions, however fog is not expected to affect the TAF sites. Clouds will be on the increase by around dawn but bases should remain VFR. An approaching cold front will then bring scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with the storms becoming more numerous by evening. As such, kept with VCTS starting around 16 to 17Z, increasing to predominate TSRA by 21 to 22Z. We lose some instability heading into Tuesday night, but showers will continue to be numerous with maybe more scattered thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm could reduce visibilities quite dramatically as they pass over a TAF site, however given the uncertainty of impacts and timing this far out, went prevailing MVFR during the numerous precip time frame. Winds will generally be from the SW through the TAF period, generally under 10 knots prevailing. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW

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