Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 012314 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIP HAS EXITED AND IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH WITH THE HELP OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ATTM WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY COOL MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST MANAGED TO GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BEFORE THE RAIN MOVED IN. SPECIFICALLY...READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER. FOR THE DAY...THE SKY HAS BEEN COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR EAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA HAS STABILIZED. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY AROUND ITS CENTER THAT WILL SWIRL OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS . SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN THE STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. FOLLOWING THIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH THIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS INTO TUESDAY BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. MADE ONLY SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS AND THE DRIER MET THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING ON THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT WILL ALSO SET UP SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY DOES NOT RECOVER UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (75/60) ONLY YIELDS 400J/KG OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY BETTER 600J/KG USING 78/60 ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN...BOOSTING CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WON`T REALLY GET PUSHED OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A KICKER SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FINALLY BOOTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY...POPS MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS MAY NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A DIURNAL TREND. WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD...AND TREND BACK TOWARDS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW CIGS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT MOST AIRPORTS...ALONG WITH LIMITED TIMES OF HIGHER CIGS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE CELLS. AFTER 02Z TONIGHT... CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP AGAIN WITH FOG AND LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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