Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 310707 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT. WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...JMW

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