Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 031814 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DOT THE AREA EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75. CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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