Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 300757 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 357 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 357 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 The well advertised upper low continues to spin over Lexington this morning, bringing isolated shower activity to far eastern Kentucky toward the Ohio Valley. Dry slotting has wrapped into much of the rest of eastern Kentucky on the northwestern flank of a surface low positioned across western North Carolina. Will continue to see the main precipitation shield move northward through the day today as the upper low slowly wobbles toward the Ohio River, thus keeping much of eastern Kentucky dry. For those areas in the Bluegrass region and near the West Virginia border who do see rain today, capping aloft should negate any chances for thunder with cloud tops struggling to punch above 10k feet. Nonetheless, will still hang on to a good deal of cloud cover through the day under the presence of cyclonic flow. A meager intrusion of warmer air aloft as the low meanders northwestward will help warm temperatures a few degrees from Thursday`s readings, with highs topping out in the mid-upper 60s. The Bluegrass region through portions of the Interstate 75 corridor will see a slight bump in precipitation chances this evening into tonight as an upper impulse looks to round the southern periphery of the parent upper low. This will help to reintroduce cloud cover from west to east as warm air advection ensues aloft. Overnight lows still look to drop into the mid-upper 40s in valleys and low 50s on ridges as this warmer air will be confined to above the nocturnal boundary layer. Will begin to tap into some of this warmer air aloft Saturday morning as turbulent mixing occurs with deep layer southwest flow remaining in place. This will send temperatures back to near normal values, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Shower chances will be greatest in the Bluegrass region nearer the best pool of moisture and forcing for ascent. Will again see decent low level lapse rates, but quicker warming aloft near the 700 mb level will promote strong enough capping again to keep any mention of thunder out of the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 The extended period should feature isolated rain showers to begin the period Saturday and Sunday, as a slow moving area of low pressure slowly rotates through the region. They system will have only meager lift an moisture associated with it, so any showers that form with it should be isolated to scattered at best, mainly for the western and northern portions of the forecast area. Once the upper low rotates out of the Ohio Valley and out of our area Sunday evening, the remainder of the extended should be dry and pleasant. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle over the region through out the upcoming work week, which would bring mostly clear to partly cloud skies, dry conditions, and light winds to eastern Kentucky. Daily highs are expected to top out in the 70s for most locations. A few spots along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway corridor may reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. Nightly lows should bottom out in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Fog and low stratus will plague all sites overnight into Friday morning. VLIFR to at least IFR conditions appear to be a good bet at some point before daybreak. Fog and visibility reductions look to be more prevalent at LOZ/SME where quicker clearing will occur, while stratus build down will likely be more of an issue early tonight at JKL/SJS/SYM before transitioning to less robust of a stratus deck in exchange for greater visibility reductions. Expect a return to VFR conditions within an hour or two after sunrise as drier air wraps into the region this morning along with the occurrence of daytime mixing. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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