Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 062000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Cool damp weather to continue through out the afternoon and evening hours today, although the ongoing rain is tapering off quite a bit faster than previously forecast. The HRRR model has the last of the rain out of eastern Kentucky by between 0 and 1Z this evening. Based on the latest radar trends, and the HRRR data, have decided to speed up precipitation evolution across eastern Kentucky by several hours, with the last isolated showers or patches of drizzle moving out of the area between 3 and 4Z. The rain may actually end even faster than this, but did not feel comfortable going completely dry as quickly as the HRRR is currently suggesting. The latest model data has eastern Kentucky experiencing a dry period of weather on Wednesday as the current upper trough continues to move off well to our east. There could be a brief period of light rain and snow showers Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, as a second upper level low moves by just to our south. At this time precipitation probabilities late Wednesday into Thursday look be quite low, 15 to 24 percent on average, so only isolated rain/snow showers are expected at this time. With such a small chance of precipitation expected, decided not to include any snowfall accumulations at this time. Temperatures should be running slightly below normal tomorrow and tomorrow night, with daytime highs on Wednesday in the 40s and overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Tonights lows should be at or slightly above normal due to the influence of the expected widespread cloud cover. Tonights lows should be in the low to mid 30s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 505 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 The models are in good agreement concerning the amplified long wave pattern in place across the CONUS during the middle of the week. This regime will transition to more zonal flow through the first part of the weekend, before amplifying once again through early next week. There is more confidence in the smaller scale features through Saturday. Confidence then drops off through the rest of the extended portion of the forecast due to timing and evolution differences. A deep upper level low will shift east from Ontario to Quebec through Thursday, enabling a short wave trough to swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This will bring the coldest air thus far this season into eastern Kentucky. Winds will shift to the northwest late Wednesday night into Thursday, with some light snow, although impacts looks to be minimal given the shallow depth of the moisture available and most of the better upper level support passing by further north. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 30s at best, with temperatures likely dropping through the afternoon. Despite lingering cloud cover into Thursday night, lows will drop off into the teens for most locations, with highs on Friday only in the 20s. The center of the high pressure looks to pass through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Clouds should be a bit thinner, as the flow becomes more zonal, allowing at least for some mid teens, if not lower potentially. Highs will recover back to the mid to upper 30s on Saturday. The next system will affect the area from Sunday through Monday, as a trough digs in across the Plains and then moves east, dragging a cold front across the Commonwealth. The GFS is more progressive with this system compared to its mean, with the ECMWF slower still. Have therefore allowed for a slightly slower onset of the precipitation compared to that of the blended guidance. Consequently, this also resulted into hanging onto higher pops deeper into Monday and beyond. Did allow for a small chance of a rain/snow mix for early Sunday; however, given the likely slower trend, any foreseeable impacts look too low confidence to mention at this point. Temperatures will be moderating back closer to normal through early next week, with highs back near the 50 degree mark by Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Complex TAF forecast today and tonight. Widespread rain showers will continue to move across eastern Kentucky through 21 or 22Z, before tapering off to scattered and then isolated showers between 23Z today and around 4Z tonight. Patchy drizzle will be possible behind the back edge of the rain showers this evening and tonight. Conditions at the TAF sites will vary from IFR to MVFR depending on the intensity of the rain. Widespread MVFR conditions are not expected to set in until after 5Z tonight. The clouds will be slow to exit the area, so BKN to OVC CIGS will be possible through around 13Z tomorrow. Winds will continue to shift from the southwest to northwest over the next several hours with sustained values at around 10 mph. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.