Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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747 FXUS63 KJKL 261055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 655 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 655 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 Receiving reports of some frost, especially in southeast Kentucky this morning. Temperatures have steadied off in the mid 30s. Made some temperatures tweaks to match this trend. Otherwise, no other changes this Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 High clouds continue to stream across the region early this morning. These clouds have had little impact on temperatures as our eastern valleys have fallen into the middle 30s and will likely fall into the lower 30s by daybreak. This should be cold enough for some patchy frost. Plan to let the frost advisory run with no changes. The cold weather will be short lived as a warm front will lift northward across the region today, with temperatures climbing into the 70s by this afternoon. High clouds will likely thin out as the front lifts north today. However, an approaching mid level trough will bring increasing mid/high clouds again tonight as it moves into the Ohio river valley. Still expect our eastern valleys to decouple early on tonight and fall quickly back into the 40s by late evening. As the trough moves closer overnight, gradient will increase and we may see those temperatures start to come up a bit, especially as the clouds thicken up overnight. The ECMWF has slowed down the trough to match the GFS, so it looks like the main rain chances will come on Thursday. However, models have trended weaker with the system and now looks like much of the area could see very little if any rainfall with this system. In fact, most models agree no more than a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall will fall at most. Thus, pops have been cut way back and for southwest areas, only a mention of sprinkles is warranted at this time. With the weaker system, have also removed any mention of thunder. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 357 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 Following a stray shower/sprinkle across Pike County Thursday evening, skies will continue to clear from west to east as high pressure builds in. Despite calming winds and clearing skies by Friday morning, the commence of warm air advection should negate the threat for frost as valley temperatures bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s while ridges only drop into the mid 40s. Unprecedented late October/early November warmth then looks likely to materialize from Friday into next week as upper ridging spans the southern Plains through the Gulf of Mexico into the Great Lakes. This month currently stands one day shy of the record number of 80 degree days for October at the Jackson weather forecast office. The best chance at seeing this record tied looks to be Saturday with Monday certainly presenting the possibility of breaking it. Gusty southwest winds will help to mix down 850 mb temperatures of 10-15C as 500 mb heights remain above 580 decameters. Northern stream energy will remain active across southern Canada into the Great Lakes this weekend, with the strongest of the associated upper impulses arriving with an attendant northwest wind shift Sunday. However, any precipitation stemming from this system along with any appreciable cooler air looks to stay confined north of eastern Kentucky. This may spell temperatures topping out in the mid 70s Sunday as opposed to upper 70s-low 80s Saturday and again Monday, but still well above normal readings in the mid 60s. If the aforementioned upper high shifts and amplifies across the southern U.S. as currently progged, further increasing heights/thicknesses could bring the warmest November temperature readings ever recorded at the National Weather Service in Jackson. The November record high temperature of 82 degrees could very well be tied or exceeded through mid next week with warm air firmly entrenched east of the Continental Divide. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 VFR conditions will be experienced through the period. Southwest winds will develop between 5 and 10 knots late this morning and continue through the afternoon. High/mid clouds will begin to thicken late in the period. Some low level wind shear may develop ahead of an approaching cold front this evening as winds die off at the TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ086>088-104- 106>120. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...KAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.