Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290635 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 235 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 234 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Inherited forecast has the situation in hand. Only updated to blend obs into the forecast grids. UPDATE Issued at 1053 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Just some leftover stratiform precipitation is skirting northern Fleming County currently. This will dissipate in the next hour, with dry weather and a gradual thinning of the clouds expected through the rest of the night. Consequently, would expect some areas of dense fog to form, especially across locations that saw significant rainfall from earlier. Have also nudged the lows down a bit where current readings are already in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 815 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The storm scale has dominated once again through early this evening, with multiple clusters and their associated outflow boundaries having moved through the majority of eastern Kentucky. Mainly some more stratiform-like precipitation is remaining across portions of the area, but even this dwindling fairly quickly. Expect most of this to be gone in the next 1 to 2 hours, as we lose instability. Have mainly freshened up the grids to depict radar and satellite trends. Will assess forecast lows and fog potential a bit later this evening. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening now that the cap has broken and peak heating is occurring. These storms are all either moving very slowly or not at all, so locally heavy rainfall will be a concern for locations that do experience a thunderstorm. The showers and storms should taper off quickly once the sun begins to go down. Eastern Kentucky should be rain free by around 4Z tonight. The dry weather should continue through late Monday morning. More showers and storms will likely fire up tomorrow afternoon, as a hot, moist, and unstable air mass will still be in place across the region. The lack of steering winds aloft will once again contribute to slow storm movement tomorrow, or lack thereof, so locally heavy rainfall could once again be a concern. We will see more fog across eastern Kentucky as well. The fog should mainly be confined to river valleys and location near bodies of water. Locations that experience rainfall this afternoon and evening could also see fog overnight, depending on how much clearing occurs. The hot weather will persist into the start of the new work week, with highs on Monday around 90 expected. Overnight lows the next two nights will again be warm and uncomfortable, with minimum readings in the upper 60s to around 70 expected. Winds will be generally light and variable outside of any thunderstorms. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 425 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The period will begin with an upper level ridge centered from the Mid MS Valley east to the Appalachians. Another ridge is progged to be centered over the Rockies at that time with a closed low moving across Northern Ontario and a shortwave trough trailing down into the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a tropical system is expected to be off or near the North Carolina Coast at that time with another Tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. From Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper low initially over northern Ontario should move into Quebec and toward the Maritimes and merge with a large upper low over the Maritimes. This and the trailing shortwave trough should begin to carve out a trough into the Northeast CONUS while the axis of Upper level ridging should extend north through the Plains by Wed evening. The trough developing to the northeast and sfc high pressure building toward the northern Great Lakes should send a cold front south through the Great Lakes with the boundary approaching the OH Valley by Wed evening. A warm and moist airmass will be in place on Tuesday and even into Wednesday, but little if any mid level triggers. The cap could be broken in a few locations mainly near the VA border each day. Wed night into Thursday, the shortwave trough axis moving by and the cold front dropping south through the OH Valley could bring some convection to the area late on Wed night or Thursday. Meanwhile the upper level ridge axis will move east and near the MS Valley by Thursday evening. Also, the tropical system that should meander a bit in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should get begin to get drawn north by the trough. However, this system and associated moisture should be suppressed well south and east of the area. Thursday night into Saturday, the upper level ridge should build east toward the lower MS Valley and southeastern states, but should begin to flatten a bit late. Sfc high pressure should build into the area from the Great Lakes and settle across the Northeast late in the period. The flattening should occur as a shortwave moves from the west coast across the Rockies and into central Canada and another trough enters the Western US. The ridge should remain the dominant feature into Sunday as well. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered into the region behind the front, but this airmass will begin to moderate again by the end of the period. Dry weather is expected from Thursday evening and Thursday night through Sunday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 A generally quiet period is in store. Fog will affect some locations with IFR or worse conditions early this morning- mainly in the larger/deeper valleys. Once the fog dissipates, mostly VFR conditions are expected through the end of the period. A few showers or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out during the heat of the afternoon, but they should not be as prevalent as on Sunday.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...HAL

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