Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291915 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 SHORT TERM IS BASICALLY A TRANSITION PERIOD LEADING UP TO THIS WEEKENDS MAJOR STORM SYSTEM. GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY BUT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF SC ROTATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES CLEAR BACK OUT THURSDAY TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONABLE AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER BEFORE BIG CHANGES OCCUR. WE WILL SEE THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN ON FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR TEMPS...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMS. SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. SO JUST NUDGED INHERITED TEMPS TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THIS SAID AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SE TOWARD THE REGION EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUAL TREND IN MODEL AGREEMENT. THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SINCE YESTERDAY WITH DEEP UL LOW BASED ON DPROG/DT. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA STILL MORE ON THE SIDE OF RAIN SHOWER HOWEVER DID INTRODUCE MIX WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT. POPS DO DROP OFF SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SE OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH HARD FREEZE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING MONDAY UNDER RETURN FLOW. CLOUDS AND POPS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY WILL STICK WITH BLENDED POPS.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS AN AREA OF MOISTURE THAT APPEARS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS AT ABOUT THE 3K FT AGL LEVEL AND WOULD AGREE WITH UPSTREAM OBS AS A LARGE AREA OF SC IS ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTEND. FOR NOW WENT WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE LOWEST CIGS...A BKN DECK AT SJS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SCT ELSEWHERE. BUT SUSPECT A BKN DECK MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH FUTURE UPDATES. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS MUCH MORE FOCUSED ON FOG THAN CIGS. BUT FEEL MIXING AND A LIGHT GRADIENT WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS UP. BOTTOM LINE FOR FORECAST...WENT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT SJS AND MVFR VSBYS AT SME AND LOZ THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WINDS UP BEING CIGS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST... NORTHWEST BUT WITH A DIURNAL DROP OFF TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY

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