Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 171445 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NUDGING INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO CLEAR SOME OF THE CLOUDS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND JUST PATCHY AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS ALSO FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH PATCHES LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. THE FOG HAS ALL DISSIPATED AND EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO FADE BY NOON ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY MAKING FOR GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH HAS MODERATED AND COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NOTCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE SOME SPOTS DID NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S DUE TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN. FOR TODAY... AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES THERE ARE QUICKLY WARMING BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES WHILE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE...SLOWED LOCALLY BY THE PATCHY STRATUS THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH PULLING AWAY FROM THE STATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. AGAIN CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY PCPN WITH THIS BUT AT THE MOST IT WILL BE JUST SOME LATE DAY SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING TO THE SKY/T/TD ONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...TREND...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. A FRESHENED HWO AND ZFP WAS SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG MENTION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS LIMITED THE FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE RIDGES HAVEN`T REALLY GOT INTO THE FOG ALL THAT BADLY YET. WILL STAY THE COURSE DOWNPLAYING THE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE SKIES HAVE STAYED A BIT MORE CLEAR. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS. FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS RANGE QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW 1000 FEET UP TO 5KFT. WE SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A BETTER FOG POTENTIAL NIGHT WILL EXIST TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED MORE TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND MAY NOT IMPACT TAF SITES ALL THAT MUCH. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW WELL WE MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. IF WE CAN MIX ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WE MAY AVOID MUCH OF THE FOG TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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