Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 222159 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 459 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 458 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018 A frontal boundary was laid out across the southern part of the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures were as mild as the 70s south of the front, but only in the 40s north of I-64 on the cold side of the boundary. A few light showers lingered, but most of the region was precip free. Models are in relatively good agreement for at least the first couple of forecast periods. An impulse (evidences by precip over AR) will move along the front and pull it northward tonight. It should make it entirely north of the JKL forecast area Friday morning. The most significant precip associated with the wave should stay to our north and northwest tonight. However, aside from the continuation of our scattered showers, some of the precip associated with the wave will probably affect our northwest counties for a while late tonight into Friday morning, and a likely POP has been used for this. We should emerge into another generally lull in precip on Friday, and also see some breaks in the clouds. Being on the warm side of the front, this should allow for unseasonably mild highs in the 70s across the area. On Friday night the frontal boundary may settle slightly further south into our area for a time (in the wake of the passing wave/impulse). A stronger low pressure system will take shape over the plains and result in increasing flow off the Gulf. With the front in our area, this will bring another increase in the POP, but once again the most significant rain should be further to the north and northwest. In terms of rainfall amounts, models have not been consistent, but do suggest that we will not see enough to cause hydro problems through Friday night. That being the case, no Flood Watch has been issued. Problems in the long term period can`t be ruled out yet, and and ESF product has been reissued for the northern part of the forecast area to address this. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 458 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018 Saturday will continue to feature mild conditions with shortwave energy departing in the morning with a brief lull in precipitation expected. However, another vort max will cross northern Kentucky by the afternoon, with additional rain chances across the area. Will maintain the rather high pops given the moist environment for late February. A few thunderstorms may be possible in our western and northwestern zones on Saturday, but its a question to if we can generate enough instability with ongoing cloud cover. A strong shortwave trough will bring a stronger low pressure system across the great lakes Saturday night into Sunday, dragging a strong cold front across eastern Kentucky. Some thunderstorms will likely develop upstream and gradually weaken as they move into the area Saturday night as they outrun the better instability. There is a marginal risk of a few strong to severe storms in our southwestern zones given the tremendous shear in place, but confidence remains low on how much of this activity will hold together as it reaches the area overnight. For now, will introduce the possibility of a few strong storms along the heavy rain potential for Saturday and Saturday night into the HWO. Showers will taper off on Sunday, although NAM and ECMWF keeps some moisture around in southeast Kentucky into Monday morning. Thus, have kept some low end pops going a bit longer for these areas. High pressure eventually returns by Monday into Monday night with a return to more seasonable temperatures. In fact, lows Monday night may dip below freezing for the first time in awhile. More rain chances will return by midweek and last into Thursday as the active weather pattern continues.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018 A frontal boundary was laid out across extreme southeast KY at the start of the period. Conditions south of the front (on the warm side) were generally VFR, while most places north of the front (on the cold side) were IFR or worse. There were a few light showers in the area as well. The front will show an overall northward drift tonight, making its way completely north of the forecast area by around 13Z. Conditions should improve with passage of the front as it heads north, with mainly VFR expected during the day Friday. While there is good confidence in the overall scenario, the specific timing for improvement at individual TAF sites is fairly low confidence. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.