Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 041210 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 MADE SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED. THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND DEFINITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS. ENOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...SO THAT OUR POP WILL BE LOWER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME REALIZING THIS DRYING ALOFT...AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POP TODAY. WITHOUT ANY ONGOING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY REDUCED...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED 8 AM EXPIRATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN OUR POP ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED. YET AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRAPE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND HELPS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MILD TEMPS AT NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...LIMITING DIURNAL RANGES. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED OVER THE REGION. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DETERIORATION TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR...IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...HAL

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