Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 050847 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KAS/GREIF

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