Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201745 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1245 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1245 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 Temperatures are responding nicely...with mid 40s by the noon-ish time frame. Forecast is on track, just a little high cirrus to contend with. Only update was to bring grids in in line with hourly trends. Enjoy the day! UPDATE Issued at 945 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017 Weather is quiet this morning. River valley freezing fog is burning off quickly based on regional satellite imagery. Temps will continue to rise above freezing over the next hour. Afternoon highs look good, rising into the upper 40s to lower 50s. No major update to the grids but will freshen up the zones and other text products. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017 With reports of dense fog in some of the river valleys and temperatures well below freezing it looks like freezing fog is affecting southeast parts of the state. This is supported by the obs out of SME and the Harlan airport as well as the latest GOES satellite images from the combined fog channel. Have updated the zones and HWO for this threat and also issued a brief SPS. With this update did also adjust the T and Td grids for the obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017 07z sfc analysis shows cold high pressure moving into Kentucky. This has cleared the sky for all but the far east where some low stratus still holds on. With the clear skies and light winds temperatures are radiating down with readings generally in the mid to upper 20s. Dewpoints, meanwhile are running in the low to mid 20s with many valley locations seeing small dewpoint depressions that could result in some patchy fog. On the GOES satellite fog channel there are indications of fog are showing up in the deeper valleys so far this night. Have added some fog into the Wx grids for this through dawn. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. Northwest flow starts off the first part of the day as the heights start to rebound over Kentucky in the wake the departing deep trough from this past weekend. The flow pattern will flatten out later today with some weak energy moving over the state in the more zonal flow. A sharpening trough then develops to the northwest on Tuesday and spread into the Ohio Valley with a fairly strong batch of energy pressing into the area later Tuesday - however, dry conditions at lower levels will give this feature little moisture to work with. Given the model agreement will favor the blended solution with a lean toward the higher resolution NAM12. Sensible weather will feature a chilly and frosty start to the morning followed by strong warming with plenty of sunshine today as temperatures reach near 50 degrees by late afternoon. For tonight, continued mostly clear skies and light sfc winds will result in good radiational cooling and a decent ridge to valley split opening up. Temperatures will continue their warming trend on Tuesday as the winds adjust to the southwest and pick up a bit. Along with at least partly sunny skies, temperatures will push 60 degrees by mid afternoon. Expect more in the way of clouds around on Tuesday compared to today as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest along with moisture seeping up toward the area from the south and southeast. Started with the CONSShort and ShortBlend for all the grids through the short term portion of the forecast. Did make some significant changes to low temperatures tonight for a moderate to large ridge to valley temperature split. As for PoPs, kept them low through the period - in line with the blends and MOS. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017 Forecast looks to remain quiet through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend with no real chances at any precipitation. A moisture starved cold front will be dropping southward Tuesday night and will help to bring a shot of cooler weather for the middle of the upcoming week. This cooler weather will last into Thanksgiving day. A surface ridge will build in by Thanksgiving, allowing for a sunny day for Thanksgiving. Southwest flow ahead of another moisture starved front will develop into Friday, allowing for a modest warmup heading into the end of the week. This front will then pass late Friday night, with another cool down expected Saturday into Sunday. Models continue to trend towards a drier system for Friday night/Saturday, so have removed any rain chances. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds will be light and generally from the south until Tuesday when the gradient winds increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 kts. Higher gusts are expected.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY

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