Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 231959 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 359 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 Severe weather and flash flood threat continue this evening. Center of tropical depression Cindy has moved into western KY while cold front now stretches from southeast MI through northwest IN to OK. The low pressure center will continue to move ENE while the front advances southeast. The interaction of these systems will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area this evening and early tonight. Higher precipitable water is now advancing into eastern KY in advance of the remnants of Cindy. Precipitable water will increase to 2 to 2.25 inches so showers and thunderstorms will be efficient rain producers. Rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms. It does appear the heavy rain threat will mainly be confined to the time frame before midnight, but will allow the flash flood watch to continue as is, though it will likely be able to be cancelled early. As noted earlier today the surface to 1 KM storm relative helicity will approach or exceed 400 m2/s2 this afternoon and evening. Some rotating storms are likely and with rather low lifting condensation levels a rotating storm could result in a brief tornado touchdown. While breaks in the clouds this afternoon have allowed for low level lapse rates to increase, mid level instability remains rather limited. While a damaging wind and tornado threat exist, any occurrences of severe weather are expected to be isolated. After the frontal passage tonight cooler and drier air will begin to move into the area for the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 The long term portion of the forecast will be highlighted by a stretch of dry weather with well below normal temperatures resulting from a mean upper level ridge in the western part of the U.S. and a trough in the eastern part of the country. 850 mb temperatures will drop to the single digits Celsius early next week, and we`ll see a multi-day stretch with maximum temperatures in the 70s and and minimums in the 50s. Dewpoints will be around 50 degrees for the first part of the week. By the end of the week the trough will be lifting out and flow will become more zonal and temperatures will warm and dewpoints will increase back into the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017 Conditions will deteriorate late this afternoon and into the evening as tropical depression Cindy and an approaching cold front interact to bring showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Early this afternoon the center of the tropical depression was moving from northwest TN into southwest KY, while a cold front extended from MI though northwest Indiana, central IL and on into northeast OK. The low pressure system will continue to move ENE while the the cold front sags southwest. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread as the low pressure system and front move closer. Even ahead of the showers and thunderstorms MVFR ceilings will prevail across the area, although many areas will lift to VFR for a time this afternoon. Once the rain moves in ceilings will gradually lower with some areas becoming IFR. Once the rain exits tonight there will likely be a period of fog and low ceilings. The cold front will be southeast of the area by Saturday morning and conditions will improve quickly with VFR conditions expected across most of the area by late morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH

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