Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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593 FXUS63 KJKL 081725 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1225 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Surface analysis shows area of center of high pressure is currently parked across the Central Plains and we are currently stuck in between. That said we will continue to see west to northwest CAA flow across eastern KY. Overall forecast grids are on track and only updated with latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 743 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Radar returns have diminished across the area, and most of the higher based cumulus is starting to scatter out. As such, removed flurries from the forecast. Also freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points according to the latest trends in observations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 312 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 A strong surface high pressure ridge, stemming from the Arctic center anchored across the Northwest Territories, remains nosed in from the Continental Divide through the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley regions. Aloft, a deep trough remains poised across the CONUS, with an upper level low moving eastward into Quebec, with a short wave trough moving across the Midwest. In eastern Kentucky, some light radar returns have been showing up for the past few hours, although cloud bases remain at or above 7k feet agl for most locations, with any flurry activity few and far between. Current temperatures are in the low 30s, with some upper 20s invading from far northern Kentucky. Much colder temperatures will continue to be the main story through the short term, as the upper trough gradually shifts east, with a secondary surface high pressure center eventually becoming established across the mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. Today will feature perhaps a few flurries into the mid-morning hours, before clouds thin out and west to northwest winds pick up and turn a bit gusty, as the cusp of the arctic air invades. Highs today will be in the mid 30s, with most marks established by noon. Temperatures will then fall off through tonight, reaching the teens to lower 20s by dawn Friday. Lower clouds, containing some flurries at times, will also move in overnight and will linger into Friday. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016 We start the period with high pressure in control at the surface. Any residual low clouds remaining from the day should erode pretty quickly Friday evening but some mid and high clouds may interfere with radiational cooling conditions across our northern counties. Nonetheless, it will be cold with lows in the teens. Saturday will then be cold but with some sunshine through increasing high level cloudiness. These clouds should thicken up Saturday night but temps will likely still drop toward 20 in our eastern valleys. Our next weather maker is still due to begin affecting our area on Sunday as a shortwave tracks across the Midwest and Great Lakes region sending a surface low across the Ohio Valley to our north. Models are a tad slower with the onset of precip with this system when compared to last night and the bulk of any precip is now shown to enter the scene late Sunday into Sunday night. Temps are cold enough along and north of I-64 that it is possible a little snow may mix in Sunday evening before warm advection kicks in and temps actually warm overnight. The 08/00z ECMWF continues be slower in exiting the rain on Monday and that slower trend will be found in our forecast. Confidence on forecast details tank beyond Monday. The 08/00z GFS brings one heck of an arctic front through the area dropping temps from the 50s Tuesday into the teens on Wednesday. The 08/00z ECMWF is much tamer, keeping the real cold air to our north. The SuperBlend looks like a great compromise and will be followed. This results in a small chance of rain or snow Tuesday into Tuesday night, and then a small chance of snow on Wednesday with highs dropping from the 40s on Tuesday back down toward freezing on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Much of the lower deck from this morning has scattered out and now we are left with mostly high clouds across eastern KY. While we have returned to VFR this afternoon Vis Sat and Obs are showing a area of low MVFR building SE toward the region. These clouds will stream in through evening and overnight and some snow showers/flurries will also be possible. We have seen winds increase out of the west at around 7 to 10 knots this hour and would expect that to continue through the afternoon. Gusts will generally be around 15 to 20 knots. These winds are still expected to reduce through the evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...DJ

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