Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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562 FXUS63 KJKL 251739 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 139 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 133 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Other than some minor adjustments to the temperature and winds based on the latest observations, forecast seems to be well on track. Any changes made were published and sent to NDFD/web, but were not worthy of any updates to the ongoing forecast package. UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Forecast is well on track so far this morning as high pressure remains in control of the region. Loaded the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds into the near term forecast to make sure they were in line with on going conditions. This resulted in only minor changes. Also went ahead and reran the ZFP and HWO to remove morning fog wording, as most observation sites have shown the fog dissipating over the last 1 to 2 hours. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Just a quick update to the grids to fine tune the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 07Z sfc analysis shows a weak front lying across the area with fairly strong high pressure to the northeast of Kentucky. Despite the boundary overhead, skies remain mostly clear yet again for another night. Accordingly, and combined with light to calm winds, this has been another good night for radiational cooling resulting in temperatures varying from ridge to valley by 5 to 10 degrees. Specifically, readings range from the lower 60s in the most sheltered valleys to around 70 on the ridges. Dewpoints, meanwhile are again running in the low to mid 60s. So far, just a touch of fog has formed in the lower spots of the Cumberland Valley with it expected to develop similar to last night along with locally dense patches near the rivers. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they depict the ridging that has kept the Wx quite over the region these past few days giving way to the influence of a robust trough moving east into the Great Lakes Sunday night and into Monday. This will bring lower heights and some energy to the Ohio Valley by Monday afternoon. Given the good model agreement on this feature, in particular, have favored a model blend solution with still a healthy lean toward persistence through Sunday night. Sensible weather will feature another unseasonably warm and mostly to partly sunny day under the waning influence of the eastern sfc high. This pattern changes by Monday afternoon as a well defined cold front moves into Kentucky later in the day. This boundary will likely bring with it a band of showers and thunderstorms for eastern Kentucky from Monday afternoon through evening. The clouds, and later pcpn, associated with the front will probably keep temps several degrees lower on Monday than today. For tonight look for another repeat with patchy fog - locally dense - expected in the valleys toward dawn. Once again used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as a starting point into the evening and SuperBlend thereafter through 00z Tuesday. Did bump up temps a notch today for highs given recent trends with this pattern. Also, again made more substantial changes to the terrain derived edit areas and forecast points tonight in the temperature grids to better reflect ridge and valley differences. As for PoPs - basically zeroed them out through Monday morning, before bringing them up by afternoon from west to east with the arriving cold front. This is in well line with MET and MAV MOS guidance. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 At upper levels, a deep trough and upper low will make a southward dig from the Northern Plains/Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. This low may get cut off from the northern stream flow as it continues to dig further southward into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. Model solutions have significant differences with how it handles the closed low from Thursday onward. The ECMWF solution has the closed low meandering over our area into the weekend, whereas the GFS takes the low off the east coast by Friday. Neither solution seems favorable at this time so have kept the forecast close to the CR Superblend. If a closed low/troughiness does in fact stick around longer than the operational GFS solution indicates, then some showers and cooler temperatures will be possible during the latter part of the week. In terms of sensible weather, a cold front will be exiting our region to the southeast Monday night, with showers and cloud cover quickly clearing behind it. Much cooler and drier air will infiltrate East Kentucky behind the front, bringing a welcome reprieve from the summer heat and humidity. Afternoon highs will top out in the low 70s through most of the work week before moderating slightly into the upper 70s by weeks` end. Overnight lows will drop below normal values (around 55 degrees) for the first time in weeks, with temperatures mainly in the 40s. A few showers may be possible during the latter half of the work week, but for now have kept things mainly dry into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday morning resulting in VFR conditions for most areas with light and variable winds. A few diurnal CU could be possible across the forecast area through this afternoon, with bases mainly between 4.5 and 6k ft. These clouds will then quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Patchy valley fog will be around again towards dawn Monday, possibly affecting LOZ and SME with some MVFR BR for a couple of hours. A cold front will begin nearing eastern KY by Monday afternoon. This could bring with it increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon. Best potential should be after 18Z, but did try to trend the TAFs towards these changing conditions, while still remaining VFR. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...JMW

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