Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261152 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 652 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110- 113-115-117>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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