Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 121530 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUICK HITTING BUT RELATIVELY WEAK CLIPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BROUGHT A ROUND OR TWO OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. IN THESE AREAS... VISIBILITY HAS BEEN BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES WITH PERIODIC ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA ROADS...SO AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH OUR CURRENT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON. ELSEWHERE...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES HAVE BEEN NOTED. TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 10 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY... THOUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE PICKING UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS ALONG WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TO T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LIGHT SNOW GETTING SET TO PUSH INTO WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS THIS SWATH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. AREAS NORTH OF THIS MAY STILL SEE A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PIKEVILLE TO JACKSON TO MOUNT VERNON LINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 MAIN SNOW BAND WAS PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. OBSERVED VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE SUGGEST SOME MODERATE POCKETS OF SNOW CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. A SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD OCCUR...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING UP TO HALF AN INCH SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND NOTHING NORTH. WILL CURRENTLY OPT TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLAY THROUGH NOON TODAY...BUT MAY VERY WELL END UP DROPPING AREAS FROM PRESTONSBURG WEST THROUGH JACKSON AND BOONEVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE FLAKES BEGIN TO FALL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 BY AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE BRUNT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WET-BULBING AND BELOW FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION FROZEN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW POCKET OF SATURATION AHEAD OF A STRONGER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF A POTENT HUDSON BAY LOW. ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO KEEP LINGERING FLAKES IN THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AS SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS MATERIALIZE SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION COULD SEE THESE DROP TO AS LOW AS -5F WHILE A FEW RIDGETOPS MAY BE EVEN COLDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AS STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS PERSIST WITH A STOUT COLD DOME IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE AND NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE HIGHS AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION...GIVEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WOULD THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EASY FOR MOST SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. VALLEYS IN THE EAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LOWER TEMPS JUST GIVEN THE CLUSTER OF SURFACE HIGH PLACEMENT FROM THE SUITE OF MODELS. AFTER THIS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE RESOLVING SEVERAL KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THAT SAID THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF POPS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND AND OVERALL SEEMS LIKE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AT LEAST DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO POPS. THE PRIMARY IMPLICATION OF CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS...AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE A LEAD WAVE THAT WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS DO WANT TO SPREAD A WARM NOSE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A WARM FRONT. THE QUESTION ON THE WARM NOSE IS HOW STRONG. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW PLACEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN WHICH WOULD BE LESS OF A WARM NOSE THAN THE ECMWF. RIGHT NOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL TRANSITION IN PTYPE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY ON...AND DISCUSSING THIS WITH OTHER OFFICES AGREE THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. IT WILL HELP WHEN THIS SYSTEM IS FINALLY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. ANOTHER WAVE RIDES THE COAT TAILS OF THE PREVIOUS DEEPER SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. AFTER A MORE COMPLICATED PERIOD OF TIME A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES EAST AND UPPER RIDGE INTRODUCES DECENT HEIGHT RISES AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 651 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH ACROSS KLOZ AND KSME THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING A RUN AT KJKL/KSJS BY MID MORNING. VFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ068-069-079- 080-083>088-110-112>118-120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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