Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 202328 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 QUIET FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. BY LATE TONIGHT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD WILL BEGIN ROLLING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z TOMORROW. ASIDE FROM UPDATING THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DRY AND MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DECENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. DECENT CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL WARRANT INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE EXIT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM EARLY TO LATE EVENING. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT DEVELOP WITH A FEW STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ALL THAT WARM TOMORROW. SHOULD SEE A MUCH COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE...CLOUDS MAY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...THIS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO AFFECT THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START OFF MOVING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE PLAINS...AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW ARE AS USUAL MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THESE DETAILS...AND THIS DOES AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE LONG WAVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLAM INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...WHICH EVENTUALLY BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE GFS HAS MORE WEAKNESS ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM...WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...KEEPING THE RIDGE MORE ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY... WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES LOOK MORE BENIGN EITHER WAY FOR OUR REGION FOR NOW. FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. READINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AS THE SHOWERS ROLL THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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