Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201530 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1030 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1030 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 14z sfc analysis shows high pressure slipping off to the northeast as low pressure develops over the High Plains. Mostly clear skies and plenty of low level moisture led to the development of dense fog early this morning. This has now cleared up for most locations and the SPS & NPW for these were allowed to expire at 10 am. Temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to lower 50s for much of the area with a few places still in the lower 40s where the fog was last to clear. These all will climb nicely into the mid and upper 60s this afternoon thanks to ample sunshine and light winds turning more to the south with time. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are generally in the middle 40s under mainly just some high clouds. Have updated the forecast to account for the clearing of the fog and to fine tune the temperature rise this morning toward the afternoon highs. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the ZFP and HWO - as well as a cancellation statement for the dense fog advisory. UPDATE Issued at 709 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 Elected to expand the Dense Fog Advisory south along the Interstate 75 corridor into the Lake Cumberland region as widespread surface saturation has been persistent near Monticello with Somerset also seeing visibilities decrease. Other isolated spots also seeing near or below 1/4 mile visibilities, including Middlesboro and the Big Sandy Regional Airport. Will let this and the Special Weather Statement ride through 10 am for now.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 Areas of dense fog will continue across eastern Kentucky this morning, with widespread 1/4 mile or less visibilities nearer the Interstate 64 corridor down toward Mountain Parkway where surface saturation has occurred more easily due to cooler temperatures and lack of boundary layer mixing Sunday. Fog will undoubtedly impact other locales across eastern Kentucky this morning, but not seeing widespread 1/4 mile or less visibilities at this time south of a West Liberty to Irvine line. Big Sandy and Monticello Regional Airports have seen periods of dense fog, so may have to eventually expand the Dense Fog Advisory farther south this morning if this persists. Following turbulent mixing and fog dissipating by mid morning, tranquil weather will be in the offing for Washington`s Birthday as deep layer subsidence dominates eastern Kentucky. Bands of cirrus will move overhead downstream of a rather narrow upper trough spanning the Canadian Prairies to Mexico. Well above normal temperatures will be in store as 850 mb thermal ridging approaches the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, but a stout low level subsidence inversion below 900 mb will preclude this from being fully mixed to the surface. Nonetheless, highs should still top out in the mid- upper 60s with a few readings in the 70s possible near and south of Hal Rogers Parkway. Patchy fog will be possible tonight, mainly in the valleys where crossover temperatures will be closer to being reached, as high pressure nudges east downstream of the approaching upper trough. Low temperatures look to bottom out in the upper 40s to low 50s on ridges and closer to the mid 40s in valleys. Lowering clouds will be on the increase through the day Tuesday as low pressure encroaches upon the Bluegrass. Isolated to scattered rain showers will develop later into the afternoon, but not expecting much in the way of appreciable precipitation through Tuesday afternoon as the northern segment of the trough dampens through the Ohio Valley. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 The extended period looks like it will be fairly active, with periods of precipitation expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, Wednesday night through Thursday night, and Friday through Saturday. The models were in pretty good agreement regarding timing of weather systems across the region toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. The best chances for rain look to be Tuesday night and Friday night into Saturday. The model data is suggesting the possibility of some thunderstorms Thursday into early Thursday evening, and again Friday into early Friday night. A strong cold front is forecast to move across the at the end of the week, so will need to closely monitor the model data for the possibility of strong storms Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures are still expected to be well above normal through out the extended. High temperatures are still forecast to max out in the upper 60s on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week by far, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s expected on that day. Highs on Saturday and Sunday should be considerably cooler, owing to the intrusion of much cooler air into the region behind the cold front that will pass through the area on Saturday. Max readings over the weekend are expected to be in the 50s. Nightly lows will also be quite unseasonable, with min values forecast to drop only into the low to mid 50s Tuesday night through Thursday night. Once the cooler air settles over the area this weekend, we could see lows in the 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. Saturday will mark the transition from one air mass to another, with lows in the low to mid 40s expected that morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 709 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017 Fog and subsequent visibility restrictions continue to be the primary concern of note this morning. SYM/SJS are seeing VLIFR visibilities, while SME and LOZ may see deteriorating conditions at times over the next couple of hours. Valley fog may eventually creep up toward JKL as well as mixing ensues this morning, but this should be short-lived if it does ascend the ridge. All remaining fog will mix out by mid-late morning as heating/mixing commence and VFR conditions return with nothing more than some high clouds streaming in. East/southeast winds will remain light near or below 5 mph through today and tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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