Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281250 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS. HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SYM AND POINTS NORTH SEEING SOME FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE FIELD MINS AFTER 06Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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