Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200757 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 357 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE MORE ORGANIZED PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...OVERPLAYING THE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH THAT HAS BEEN WEAK IN REALITY...WHILE UNDERPLAYING WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO KEEP MOVING EAST...AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE FOR TODAY WORKING IN FROM WEST TO EAST...SO HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS BACK A BIT...PEAKING IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE HOTTER PART OF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH 06Z...BUT THEN LOOKS TO INCREASE BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. POP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HEATING AIDING THE MODEST FORCING FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST...AND LESSER VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BETTER FORCING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 80S IN THE NORTHEAST...WHERE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND DIGGING TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THIS PERIOD...QUITE A FEW STRONG SHORTWAVES TRAVEL OVER THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST WAVE OF NOTE WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. AFTER THIS...THE PATTERN TURNS INTO A MORE MCS DRIVEN PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ACTIVITY CENTERED AROUND WHAT THE DAYS CONVECTION BRINGS AND IS DIURNALLY AFFECTED. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST. CONCERNING THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND EURO LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THOUGH...THE EURO LOOKS TO CUT OFF ANY CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LEADING TO AN END TO ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND DISPLACING THE TRACK OF THE MCS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT...IT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD CONSENSUS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION OF THE ALL BLEND MODEL. THOUGH DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z EURO DOES ON THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE AREA...MAY DROP POPS BELOW THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE ALL MODEL BLEND...THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND LESS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHERE THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN EARNEST AS SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE SUMMER WILL BEGIN TO SET IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURPASS 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAWN. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION. AS SUCH...HAVE HANDLED MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH VCTS/VCSH AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST. EXPECT MVFR/IFR FOG TO SET IN BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z AS WELL...WITH THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ALONG WITH ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SUSTAINED RAINFALL SEEING IFR OR WORSE FOG. THERE SHOULD BE A CONVECTIVE LULL IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY THREATEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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