Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 280829 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 329 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS. HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TOMORROW NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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