Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 170715 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 A SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WX DAY TO THE REGION. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING...SO NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FAR SE CONUS AND LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THERE. LOCALLY...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING...BUT STILL MAY DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE ONLY CHANGE WHICH ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREEING WITH IS TO SLOW DOWN STORM SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... CONFIDENCE IS NOT TO BAD WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WEEKEND WILL BE GORGEOUS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRODUCING A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER. IN FACT...THE OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE AWFULLY WEAK...SO PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT MAY BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STRONG RIDGING WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH MILD WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050-051. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL

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