Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191907 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64 PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS

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