Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 290818 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 418 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM A CLOSED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS BEGINNING TO GET ABSORBED INTO THIS TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WAS WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM. AT THE SFC...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE TRIALING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE LOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER IS NEARING THE FAR NORTHER PART OF THE AREA ATTM. THE LOW STRATUS IS SOUTH OF CVG AND HAS CREPT INTO HTS...BUT SO FAR REMAINS NORTH OF FGX AND SYM. MEANWHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA ARE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY FOG. IN A FEW LOCATIONS IT IS LIKELY DENSE AS INDICATED BY OBS FROM KI35. THE WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES HELPS TO TEMPORARILY SEND THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT STALLS OUT TO OUR SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY DOMINATE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE THE LOW STRATUS ADVECTING IN BEFORE IT RECEDES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHERE VALLEY FOG IS OCCURRING IT SHOULD ALSO LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO TODAY BEING MILD WITH DRY. WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AND BEGINS TO MEANDER. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WORKING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THIS BOUNDARY AS THE SFC LOW NEARS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE CONVECTION MAY BE INITIALLY SLOW TO SPREAD INTO THE VA AND WV BORDER COUNTIES DUE TO INITIAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THIS ALSO COULD CUT INTO RAINFALL INITIALLY OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN AND MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD PICK UP A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AS ALREADY MENTIONED...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING DOMINATES. INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE AGAIN TONIGHT. A NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST EASTERN VALLEYS DROPPING OFF MORE QUICKLY THAN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO THOSE VALLEYS WARMING TOWARD MORNING WHILE WETBULBING FROM PRECIPITATION COULD OTHER LOCATIONS AND LEAD TO MORE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES BY DAWN. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO THE COLDEST READINGS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 ON SATURDAY AND THE WARMEST LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE DAYTIME...LIKELY PERSISTING PAST SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A BRIEF LULL MAY BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME AROUND...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A BIGGER THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL...SEVERE THREAT MAY HINDER ON BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS SOME LARGER HAIL WITH WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 8KFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST WHILE ECMWF BRINGS IN OUR NEXT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. WILL PLAN TO STICK WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH BEYOND MONDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH WILL KEEP FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WEAK AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SOME CHILLY AIR...AND PERHAPS SOME FROST TO SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...NO PLANS TO INCLUDE FROST IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN BY WEEKS END AND MAY BRING US BACK TO A DRIER FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING VFR TO THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NON TAF SITES INITIALLY THOUGH MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LOZ AND SME AFTER 9Z. SOME NON TAF SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES BEFORE 13Z. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH 14Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BE DEPARTING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN TAF SITES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD....GENERALLY FROM THE WEST INITIALLY BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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