Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241802 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 102 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE THE LATEST OBS HAVE BEEN LOADED AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL HAS FINALLY EXITED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS...SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WILL LINGER INTO THE NOONTIME HOURS AS TEMPS RISE A BIT. SOME OTHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY LONGER LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. DUE TO THIS AND SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S TODAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ALSO CANCELED THE WSW OVER THE EAST AS WELL. THESE CHANGES HAVE REQUIRED A NEW ZFP. UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON... THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL... THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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