Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 172248 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 648 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 648 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017 Isolated convection remains well to our north and south this evening, as eastern Kentucky remains in relative dry pocket of low level air. Some dew points have dropped into the 50s once again this afternoon. Temperatures are running a few to several degrees warmer today compared to yesterday at this time. Adding a few degrees onto the lows from this morning to account for the warmer afternoon readings today, would still yield some lower 60s in the more sheltered valleys by dawn Tuesday. As such, did lower the valleys a few degrees based on these trends. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 323 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017 A weak stationary front remains near the OH river, but this feature will be dissipating over the next 24 hours. With weak high pressure over the area winds will remain light and the cumulus field that developed across eastern KY will dissipate this evening. With light winds and mostly clear skies some valley fog will develop tonight, but it will not be widespread. Even with the weak front to our north today there were not any showers or storms that developed near this feature, and with the front dissipating will not carry a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the north on Tuesday. There were showers and thunderstorms along the Appalachian chain to our southeast today, and there is a slight chance a few storms could develop along the higher terrain near the VA border on Tuesday, and will continue to carry this in the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 323 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017 The models are in good agreement with the overall evolution of the upper air pattern in the long term portion of the forecast. The upper level ridge in the center of the country will flatten somewhat but build east into the OH and TN valleys during the latter part of the week. This will result in rising heights across our area and increasing temperatures. In fact the latter part of the week and into the first part of weekend looks to be our warmest stretch of weather so far this summer. While afternoon high temperatures forecast from 90 into the lower 90s from Thursday to Sunday is nothing unusual for this time of year, overnight lows forecast in the lower 70s are close to record high minimum temperatures of mid 70s for this time of year. By late in the weekend and early next week the upper air pattern will be changing as troughing begins to take shape in the northeastern U.S. and the upper level ridging over our area is suppressed. However until this takes place very warm humid conditions and mainly dry weather will prevail across the area. With the changing pattern late in the weekend and a front dropping a little closer to the area from the north our shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday and especially Monday. With the increased cloud and higher rain chances on Monday, maximum temperatures will fall back into the middle and upper 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017 VFR conditions will prevail across most of the forecast area through Tuesday. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over extreme northern parts of the forecast area this afternoon near a weak stationary front. However, the likelihood is very low, and even if a storm was to develop it is expected to be well north of SYM, our most northern TAF site. Fog will form in river valleys tonight, but most TAF sites should not be affected by fog. The exception will be SME where fog is expected to result in IFR visibility late tonight and early Tuesday. Weak high pressure across the area will keep winds light and variable through the forecast period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH

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