Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 060844 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING. SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE IT IN THE HWO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN OVER A WEEK. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JVM

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