Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 272357 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 757 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Have updated to blend obs into the evening forecast. Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing, but coverage has likely peaked for the time being. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 ...Torrential rainfall on Thursday may lead to Localized Flash Flooding... Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue into the evening with the primary focus turning to the heavy rain potential tomorrow. A stalled frontal boundary has lifted north of the area and is expected to stay just north of the state through the day tomorrow. This has allowed winds to turn more southerly this afternoon. As a southern stream wave strengthens and lifts out of the Mississippi Valley overnight tonight, winds will turn a bit more southwesterly and increase in strength, allowing for an even deeper pull of moist air. This upper wave will interact with the stationary frontal boundary, as well as the potential phasing of the northern and southern stream jets, to create a large surge of warm deep moisture and lift for which storms to develop across our area. PWAT values for tonight will be well over 2 inches and will continue to increase up to 2.4 inches in some places by tomorrow afternoon. While CAPE and LI values remain decent per model soundings, the profiles are long, skinny, and moist with little wind shear. This type of profile indicates heavy rain and flash flooding concerns, moreso than severe weather. Mostly unidirectional flow in the mid and upper levels may lead to training of storms, which would likely lead to localized flash flooding. Depending on the model, anywhere from 1.5 to 3 inches of total rainfall is possible Thursday through Friday morning. Considering the extreme PWATS, any storm that does form would be a very proficient rain producer. All this considered, have decided to issue a flash flood watch for the entire area from late tonight through Friday morning. The bulk of the rain is expected to exit the area by dawn on Friday but we can expect unsettled weather to continue into the weekend. Temperatures will take a downward turn tomorrow with the onset of thick cloud cover and heavy rains, with highs in the low 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 No real break in sight from the unsettled weather as models project our area remaining in northwest flow aloft with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary positioned over us over very close by throughout the period. This will bring us daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. These should be scattered in nature most days, although a decent shortwave shown passing through the Ohio Valley may spawn a little more widespread coverage of showers/storms on Saturday and indicated higher PoPs there. The ground should be fairly wet after the short term rainfall so at least isolated flash flooding will remain a concern, at least through the weekend. Otherwise, it will remain warm and humid throughout the period with daytime highs well into the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Thunderstorms were ongoing at TAF issuance in some locations, being driven at this point by outflow boundaries sent out by earlier thunderstorms. As the lower atmosphere sloshes like a bowl of jello, the boundaries should eventually overtake each other and leave all areas in a modified/more stable surface air mass. Along with loss of heating, this should bring about an end to most showers and thunderstorms by later this evening, with fairly uneventful weather then lasting into the overnight hours. Extent of fog development remains uncertain tonight. A mid level cloud deck is expected, and may inhibit radiating and fog development. At this point have used predominant low end mvfr conditions overnight, but confidence is not high. A weak upper low currently over AR is expected to move northeast and bring precip back to our area on Thursday morning, and lasting through the day. Have kept MVFR going through the day in the TAFS, but the reality of it will be varying conditions. Showers and thunderstorms with potentially heavy rainfall are forecast, but with uncertainty in timing, SHRA VCTS was used in TAFS.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JVM/JMW LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...HAL

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