Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 291850 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 250 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK UP THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO FAR. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLEARING OUT NOW AND SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CATCH UP. EVEN SO...HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR THIS AREA DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. A NEARBY UPPER LOW IS KEEPING STRATO-CU AROUND AND FROM THIS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SITES ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TREND IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD... KEEPING OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 50S AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 40S...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY ECLIPSE RECORD LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RECOVER....RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE CENTER STAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BEING BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND PULLS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SO LONG AS THIS PATTERN IS IN PLACE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVERY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING AT UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS. THERE WILL BE NO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE JET STREAM SET UP IN THIS REGIME WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS POLAR LOW...THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL ALSO PULL UNCOMMONLY FAR SOUTHWARD /ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/...ROUNDING THE TROUGH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. FOR THURSDAY...THIS JET WILL BE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PULLING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SE...BUT OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY HOWEVER...THE JET SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SO THAT IT BECOMES MORE SW TO NE ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN AND EASTERN SEABOARD REGION...AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE JET WILL THEN REMAIN IN THIS POSITION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OF THE TROUGH...NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF KY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF

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