Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 311745 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 EARLY MORNING FOG IS STILL LINGERING IN A COUPLE LOCATIONS AS OF 940AM BUT FOR THE MOST PART HAS BURNED OFF. THIS FOG/CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT SOME TEMPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INPUT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION MOVING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE HAS DRIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AS WELL. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK CIRCULATION AT THIS HOUR TRACKING NORTHERLY ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS CENTER ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH AND EAST AS EAST KENTUCKY LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS ALREADY NOTICED WITH SOME OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HEADING INTO THE DAY...WITH THE BARELY NOTICEABLE BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...A GOOD DEAL OF LIFT WILL BE ABSENT TODAY. THIS...WHILE THE REGION IS STILL UNDER A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS IN MIND...STEERING FLOW IS QUITE LACKING...THE IMPACT FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF ERIKA SEEMS TO STILL BE STUCK OVER FL AND DRIFTING NORTHEAST POSSIBLY TO BE KICKED NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER UP THE EAST COAST. HI RES MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE OPERATION NAM AND GFS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME PIN POINTING THIS FEATURES AND WHERE THEY WILL DRIFT IN THIS WEAK FLOW. THAT SAID...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAP THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO POP UP. WEST OF THIS LOCATION WILL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY WITH THE BOUNDARY...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...STILL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOR THIS EVENING...THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR THE DAY WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST KENTUCKY. IN FACT...OVERNIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EXTENDS INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS DEVELOPMENT...IF STILL ON TRACK WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND MORE IMPACTFUL FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS A DRY FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. HENCE...HAVE GONE FOR WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. IN THIS PATTERN...MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE TO BE DESIRED. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A FEW SHOTS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 SCATTERED CU AROUND 4-5KT FEET HAS DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON RADAR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXTENSIVE TOWARDS DAWN SO HAVE PUT IN IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JVM

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