Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241943 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Models are in decent agreement through the short term. Mid/upper level flattened ridge over the region buckles through the period in response to a short wave trough digging through the Mid-West. A surface cold frontal boundary will be nudged southeastward reaching as far as the Ohio River by late Monday night. The threat of rain will increase through the short term as this system approaches our area. Current model runs suggest that should any organized convection associated with the approaching system develop, it would not reach into eastern Kentucky until Monday night. That being the case, unfavorable timing may inhibit any widespread significant rainfall until beyond the short term window. Thicknesses Monday are not quite as high as today, and H850 temps appear slightly cooler on average. So afternoon highs may be just a tad cooler Monday afternoon. In addition, surface boundary does not make it to the Ohio River until late Monday night. Consequently the more significant moisture pool ahead of the sfc boundary does not make it into our area Monday afternoon... remaining further north in central Ohio/Indiana. Therefore our heat index values will continue to rise to around 100 degrees Monday afternoon, a little shy to warrant any type of heat advisory headlines. With respect to hydro issues, storm motions remains well below 10 kts through the period. Forecast soundings also suggest a gradual increase in PWATs. So any thunderstorm activity Monday and Monday night may be a bit more efficient at producing heavy rain as compared to the last couple of days. Consequently locally heavy rain may become an increasing threat with time. Will continue to mention this potential in the HWO. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The dominant southern CONUS ridge is forecast to separate into two centers during the period, one over the Four Corners Region and the other over the western Atlantic. The weakness in between will be right over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be located along the Ohio River Tuesday morning. The models are fairly consistent in keeping this front pretty much in place, with minor wiggles north and south, through the rest of the work week. The front is progged to be shoved through only to be followed by another front dropping into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. All of this points to a fairly unsettled period with persistent chances for showers and storms. PWATs remain near 2 inches through the period so the main concern with these repeating showers/storms will be for flooding, even though it has been fairly dry of late. Temperatures are expected to cool slightly, with daytime highs remaining in the 80s for most locations. However, dewpoints will remain pretty consistent in the low 70s, so it will continue to be very muggy with no real relief in sight there.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Other than some spotty pre-dawn MVFR fog at a few terminals went with a predominant VFR forecast. Guidance was too pessimistic with VSBYS and therefore chose to lean closer to persistence. CU field will linger into the early evening. Will see typical summertime garden variety pop up showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon as well. However, coverage will not be widespread. Therefore no plans to mention any thunder at any particular site until it become evident that a terminal might be affected. Winds will remain light this afternoon, generally southwesterly around 5 kts or less. Winds will pick up just a bit Monday as a cold front settles down into the Ohio Valley. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...RAY

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