Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 111955 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 255 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS...LOW PRESSURE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. ON SATELLITE...SOME LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS ARE HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE OF TODAY HELPED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH RETREATING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS FOR KENTUCKY A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THIS WILL MAINLY PASS WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT ALSO BRING SOME HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA FOR THE DAY. ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STREAMS OF ENERGY BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND ALONG WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND CHILLY EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE WEST AND SHORTLY AFTER IN THE EAST. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING THE SNOW WILL TARGET THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY NOON FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT COULD LINGER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS FIRST BATCH OF SNOW WILL BE ROBUST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AND RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. ON ACCOUNT OF THIS...AND AS IT TARGETS SOME OF THE MAIN THOROUGHFARES IN OUR CWA...HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OVER TO PIKE COUNTY FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL SPS OR ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL DETAIL ALL THIS IN THE HWO...AS WELL. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE MET TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND MUCH ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY SNOW-PRONE RIDGES RECEIVING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND RAPID COLUMN COOLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABOVE REFERENCED GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM A POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SPOTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION LIKELY SEEING SUB- ZERO VALUES. ~1040 MB SURFACE RIDGING PLOWING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FOR MANY LOCALES WHILE AREAS NEARER THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE MAY BREACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. COOLER LOWS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO BACKING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE AT THE ONSET WHILE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S. FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND DAY RESPECTIVELY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. PHASING OF THESE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF CONTINUED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY WILL GREATLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS/PHASE. CENTRAL TO EASTERN CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO REMAIN CONTAINED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE WARMUP BY LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.|
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 STILL SOME LINGERING SC CLOUDS AROUND AT THE LOW END OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING... MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR CIGS TO THEN LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z FOR MOST PLACES WITH VSBY DOWN TO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA PEAKING IN THE 12Z TO 15Z RANGE. HAVE HIT THIS HARDEST IN THE GRIDS AND ALSO THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...SOME VCSH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE PERIOD... GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ068- 069-079-080-083>088-110-112>118-120.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...GREIF

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