Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252003 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 403 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 The short term period looks to be quite active, with very good chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow night. A cold front that will be moving across the central and southern Mississippi valley tonight will be our weather maker. This boundary will interact with the warm and moist air mass that is already in place across the region and will spark showers and scattered thunderstorms as it moves quickly across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The system should be progressive enough to keep hydro issues at a minimum, although rain could be locally heavy for short periods of time with any thunderstorms or intense showers. The rain should taper off across the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning, but a few showers will likely linger across the area, as another weather system will be following on the heels of the one that moves through the area tonight. A few of the storms on Sunday may contain strong gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal, with lows in the 50s the next two nights and highs around 70 on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 The period is expected to begin with a shortwave trough that will have affected the region in the short term departing to the northeast while another shortwave trough will near the Mid MS and lower OH Valley regions. In fact, an upper ridge axis is expected to be moving across the area at the start of the period. The region should begin the period in the warm sector as the near term boundary is expected to have stalled out across the area as surface low pressure moves northeast toward the Ozark region before reaching near the confluence of the OH and TN Rivers on Monday evening. The shortwave trough should work across the area on Monday night into early on Tuesday with the surface low tracking northwest of the area. Once the low is northeast of the area on Tuesday, the cold front is expected to move across the area. Thus, the period should begin on the unsettled side though much of Monday could end up dry with a relative lull in between the shortwaves. Shower chances will increase on Monday evening and into Monday night and linger into Tuesday night as the upper trough moves through the area and the cold front pushes south and east. A few thunderstorms are also possible on Monday night. From late Tuesday into early on Thursday, surface and upper level ridging will move in and bring drier weather for midweek. The GFS and ECMWF runs differ in the strength of the upper ridge with the ECMWF generally more amplified. Thus how mild the airmass will be in uncertain with the GFS about 8 degrees F or more colder than the ECMWF for Wed to Thu. At this point, it appears that temperatures will average above normal both days and did not stray from the in between Superblend during that period given the uncertainty. The next in a series of closed lows or shortwaves is expected to have moved from the Four Corners region to Plains from Tuesday through Thursday. Uncertainty remains in the details with this system, but the consensus is for another period of shower chances by Thursday night into Friday possibly lingering into Saturday pending its strength and timing. Despite the rain shower chances the second half of next week should average above normal for temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 VFR conditions are expected to hold until around 9Z at LOZ and SME. Scattered to numerous rain showers, and few thunderstorms, should be moving into the area around LOZ and SME by then. JKL and SYM can expect the showers and storms around 12Z, with SJS not seeing any precipitation in the vicinity until near the end of the TAF period. Any storms or intense showers could bring MVFR, or locally worse, conditions to any given airport. As for the rest of today, southerly winds of around 10 mph could gust to around 20 mph through 22Z. BKN to OVC layers of high level cloud cover will be in place to begin the TAF period, but will gradually be replaced by middle and low level clouds as a weather system approaches from the west this evening and tonight. South to southwest winds will pick up and gust to around 20 kts over much of the area during the day Today. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...AR

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