Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 240113 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 813 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 618 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS OCCURRED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT EVEN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...BUT OVERALL THE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. WSR-88D SHOWING BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NE ALONG THIS AREA WITH SOME AREAS SEEING AROUND A QUARTER OF A INCH WITH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER STORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS THESE BANDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LA COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS FRONT WOULD EXPECT THERE TO CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WE WILL QUICKLY GET INTO THE DRY SLOT. THEREFORE MOISTURE DOES GET CUTOFF AND LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY ICE ALOFT. DID OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE HOWEVER TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION GIVEN THE OVERALL BETTER CONTINUITY. DEEPER TROUGHING WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE MORNING HOURS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING WILL BE REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SLOWER AND ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION...PROLONGING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE AND ALLOWED FOR LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY...AND THEN LOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT UNTIL SOME OF THE DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT MORE RAIN THEN SNOW THROUGH WEEKEND...AND THEN PERHAPS A SNOWIER FINISH AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH COLDER AIR ACTUALLY MAKES IT IN. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LOOK ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 713 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 ALTHOUGH RAIN WAS FALLING AT MOST LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY VFR OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST HELPING TO MITIGATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR VISIBILITY WAS COMMON FROM MIDDLESBORO AND LONDON WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...THIS GENERAL SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY BEFORE IT PASSES...WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO. AS THE FRONT PASSES... WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LOST. AS THIS HAPPENS...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AND IFR.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL

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