Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 281149 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE DOTTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HANG ONTO TO THESE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WORK EAST ENOUGH TO CUT THEM OFF. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOW 20S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM DY6...THU AND ON. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY ZONAL. BUT SIZABLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL KEEP WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSTABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST WINDOW. FIRST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION. CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...MEANING WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND IT. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE...TUE NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A STRONGER...DEEPER SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE GFS STILL KEEPS THE SFC FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH ITS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER RETURN FLOW SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY THE GFS BRINGS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS A LARGE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS ANY MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS HERE...FOR A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID TERM TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS LEADS TO A MUDDLED...UNCLEAR FORECAST. WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...STAYED WITH A TRUE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES DO RESPOND NICELY...WARMING QUICKLY BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS OR HIGHER. ALSO NOTICING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TREND IN THE SOUNDINGS...ENOUGH SO THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INTRODUCED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO ABOUT -10C. BUT THE GFS HAS MODERATED QUITE A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL PASS THROUGH JKL IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES...DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS TEMPORARILY. BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY DUSK. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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