Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210601 AAC AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 201 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 155 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 An area of showers in advance of an approaching cold front and mid level shortwave trough is moving from Central KY into Eastern KY. These showers are outflowing a bit to the south with the southern edge filling in a bit. A few in cloud lightning strikes have been noted over the past hour or two in Central KY, but these are very few and far between. In fact, none have been indicated during the last hour. Pops have been fine tuned a bit based on the radar trends generally timing the highest pops of around 70 to 80 percent as the area of showers moves east. Thunderstorm coverage has been reduced to just isolated as well. The cold front should move into the northwest part of the area after sunrise and move across the area during the day on Sunday. The front should depart the VA border counties by mid to late afternoon. In advance of the front, temperatures should move very little overnight. UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 The forecast remains on track so far tonight. Numerous showers and and storms will continue to move across eastern Kentucky overnight, as a cold front pushes eastward towards the area. New showers and storms should continue to form along and just ahead of the front, further justifying keeping high PoPs in the forecast for the rest of tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, and perhaps a few strong wind gusts, will be possible with the strong storms. Ingested the latest obs data into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. No further changes to the forecast were deemed necessary at this time. UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 The forecast has been on track so far this evening per the latest radar trends. Numerous showers and storms will continue to move across the area tonight and tomorrow, as a cold front approaches from our west. Clusters and areas of showers and storms will be the norm for the next several hours, as an upper level disturbance moves by overhead. Later this evening, however, lines of showers and storms are expected as the cold front moves closer to us and eventually through the area. Other than ingesting the latest obs data into the hourly forecast to set new trends, no changes were made to the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 331 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 A surface low is deepening across eastern Wisconsin, as a more vigorous short wave trough spirals into the western Great Lakes region. The surface cold front is aligned from northwest Indiana, to southern Illinois, and eventually down across eastern Arkansas. Plenty of convection is occurring well ahead of the cold front, with abundant moisture advecting into the Mississippi Valley with falling heights aloft. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to fill in across eastern Kentucky through tonight as the cold front and upper level trough axis approaches from the northwest. This front will be fairly progressive; however, some training of storms is possible, yielding a locally heavy rainfall threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the more intense storms and will continue to highlight these threats in the HWO. The front will gradually move through and exit eastern Kentucky Sunday morning. Some of the model guidance suggests a slower exit, along with some lingering upper level support. Have slowed down the exit just a touch based on this suggestion. Low level moisture looks to exit quickly in the afternoon, allowing for some late day clearing. Mostly clear skies will reign Sunday night, as high pressure builds in from the west. Some patchy fog will form in the valleys, with lows in the mid to upper 50s, readings we haven`t seen in several weeks. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 331 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 The long term portion of the forecast will begin with surface high pressure over the area, with a mild dry air mass in place. The surface high will slide to the east, and mid level heights will rise through mid week. This will result in gradually warming temperatures and a gradual increase in surface dewpoints and deeper layer moisture as well. With the return flow, there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Lake Cumberland area on Wednesday. By the end of the week an approaching cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the entire area. At the start of the period temperatures will be below normal, but then climb to above normal readings in advance of the late week cold front, with near normal temperatures after the frontal passage. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs and or vis is currently reported across the region. The lowest CIGS are generally ahead of an area of showers moving from Central into Eastern KY. Mainly MVFR with some IFR on the ridges should prevail in these. Some lowering to somewhat more widespread IFR for a couple of hours in advance of and near the front will be possible until drier air advects in in the lower levels. 12Z to 18Z, improvements through MVFR and into VFR should occur in the northwest part of the area including SYM. Elsewhere, after 16Z, CIGS should be improving through MVFR with VFR in all areas by 22Z to 23Z. Southwest winds less than 10KT will become more W and NW behind the front, starting first in the NW by 10Z to 12Z and then across the remainder of the area through 19Z.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JP

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