Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 141434 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1034 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 FORECAST IS STILL WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FRESHENED UP HOURLY TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE. FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST HOUR. SENT OUT A NEW ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 10 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED FROM THE CAROLINAS AS DOWN THROUGH THE GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS...STEMMING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH BROAD TROUGHING IMPACTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND A BIT BETTER TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP...WITH LOWS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH...WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. ON MONDAY...BETTER RETURN FLOW WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA FROM VIRGINIA. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AVAILABLE...AND EVEN THE CONVECTION SENSITIVE SREF MAINTAINS FAIRLY LOW POPS ON THE KENTUCKY SIDE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS OM MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND LIKEWISE...A TROUGH DIGS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME COUPLED WITH SOME TROPICAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL KEEP SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS FOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THE MODEL ALL BLEND SHOWS SOME AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION. THE LACK OF GOOD INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WILL ONLY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS WELL WITH THE LINGERING LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL...A DRY PERIOD WILL PERSIST DURING THE TUESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD BEFORE A FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 IFR OR WORSE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU RANGING BETWEEN 3 AND 4K FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME THINNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY STARTING OUT FROM THE N AND NE...AND THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST LATE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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