Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221530 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Mainly light rain showers continue to advance northeast into eastern Kentucky. There has been no lightning activity upstream in Tennessee, and given the weak low and mid level lapse rates, will only allow for a slight chance of thunder for the rest of the day. Have also lowered the highs somewhat, with thicker cloud cover advancing in quickly. Highs look to range from the mid 70s across the southwest, to around 80 to the northeast. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Showers on the leading edge of significant moisture increase from the Gulf into the southeast and TN Valley has reached as far north as middle and eastern TN. High clouds have also been increasing as have mid level clouds in the south. The current forecast pops still look on target compared to recent hi res guidance and 6Z models runs. The only changes at this time were minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and sky conditions based on recent observations and satellite trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Early this morning, a rather zonal pattern in nature is in place across the northern Conus with a ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and another ridge centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Surface high pressure in place from the Appalachians to the Carolinas. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cindy is gradually nearing the Gulf Coast near the TX and LA border. Tropical moisture is already moving north across the Southeast and string to surge north toward the TN and OH Valley regions. Despite an increase in mainly cirrus with a few mid clouds, a moderate nocturnal inversion has developed with ridgetops around 70 or the lower 70s and valleys in the 60s. Valley fog was present in a few valley locations. At the same time that Tropical Storm Cindy and eventually its remnants track toward the Arklatex region through this evening, return flow between it and departing high pressure will bring a plume of Gulf moisture north into the East KY. In addition, a shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains and approach the Great Lakes tonight. A preceding cold front should move into the Central Great Lakes by dawn on Friday and approach the Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile the center of the remnants of Cindy should reach southeastern AR by dawn on Friday. The shortwave trough should move into the Great Lakes on Friday with the trough axis nearing the Lower OH Valley. Also, the cold front should approach the area from the north at that point. A round of showers and a few thunderstorms is expected across the region, arriving around midday into the afternoon in the south and then spreading northeast through evening. The deeper moisture should arrive first in the southwest and this combined with less influence of a downslope southerly flow in the low levels will lead to heavier rainfall there today. The chances for locally heavier rain from thunderstorms will also be greatest across the southwest or west this afternoon and evening. This rain will occur with some isentropic lift on the leading edge of moisture gradient as PW climbs rather dramatically to the 1.95 to about 2.1 inch range by sunset. Some solar insolation may also aid in some shower and thunderstorm development. Scatter to possibly numerous shower chances will continue into the overnight tonight and into Friday morning as the front and shortwave trough approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy. The threat of heavy rain should return again on Friday afternoon as the center of the remnants of Cindy nears and interacts with some daytime heating. A period of some dry slotting or drier air moving at mid and upper level should work across the area in between the rounds of rain and allow for heating on Friday to warm temperatures to around 80 or the lower 80s. At the same time, moisture will again increase from the south and west and band of showers and some thunderstorms are possible as the approaching front, trough, and circulation form the remnants of Cindy near. This circulation should locally enhance low level shear and this combined with daytime heating in potential bands of convection will bring a chance for a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain. Damaging winds would be the main threat although with the increased shear in the afternoon to early evening, a stray weak tornado cannot be ruled out. The heavy rain threat will continue to be highlighted in the HWO as well as an ESF. The threat for a couple of strong to severe storms is also highlighted in the HWO. If current trends continue, a Flood Watch will likely be needed for Friday into Friday night. Uncertainty remains in exact placement of the axis of axises of heaviest rainfall, but one could develop by the long term period over east KY with another closer to the approaching front. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 309 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The primary concern in the extended will be the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding Friday night. The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will likely be moving across the Tennessee valley region to begin the weekend. The moisture associated with this feature will also likely be interacting with a frontal boundary that may already be in place across the region. The enhanced lift associated with these two features, along with large amounts of tropical moisture, could lead to widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across eastern Kentucky. At this time, it appears that areas south of the Mountain Parkway would be receiving the highest rainfall amounts Friday night. The rain will gradually move across the area Saturday morning, and should be out of eastern Kentucky by late Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will vary across the area depending on the exact track of whats left of Cindy and the orientation and timing of the preceding cold front. However, in general it appears that 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible Friday night. After that, it looks like the next chance of rain will not arrive until Monday, and based on the latest data it would be only isolated to scattered light rain showers and a few storms east of the I-75 corridor. Any rain we see on Monday should be out of the area by early Monday evening. The rest of the period should be dry after that. Temperatures should be close to normal on Saturday, with highs around 80 expected, below normal Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s forecast on each of those days, and back to near normal values again on Wednesday, with highs expected to top out in the lower 80s. Nightly lows should be in the 60s Friday night and Wednesday night, and in the 50s from Saturday night through Wednesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Surface high pressure is departing to the east with mid and high clouds as moisture begins to surge in from the SW ahead of Tropical Storm Cindy. A further increase in moisture will lead to low clouds and as well as showers and storms and lowering ceilings through the first 12 hours of the period. CIGs should lower to the MVFR at SME, LOZ, and JKL between 18Z and 00Z or after at SYM. Further east at SJS where moisture arrives later and there will be an initial downslope component to the flow CIGS may remain VFR. A direct hit from a stronger shower or a storm may reduce conditions briefly to IFR at a location. Winds will be light and variable through 12Z, then become south southeast to south at 5 to 10KT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP

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