Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301758 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1258 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 SENT A COUPLE OF UPDATES TODAY. IN A LATE MORNING UPDATE... HIGHLIGHTED A BAND OF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS SINCE MOVED OUT...AND LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TOWARD EVENING. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...HAVE RAISED HIGHS FOR TODAY A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SW COUNTIES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALREADY TRYING TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN OHIO...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE HOLES WILL LIKELY FILL IN AS THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A MORE ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW IS ALIGNED JUST SOUTH OF A KFGX TO KHTS LINE. THIS WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 10 AM AND COLD PUT DOWN A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW AND TROUGHING ARE CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S. THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOLSTER THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THANKS TO READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES YESTERDAY WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW RESTRICTED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT COVERING ON SOME SHADED AREAS ALONG ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IS STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN LOWS FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DUSK WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO OVERCOME. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. AN UPPER LOW DISPLACED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLANS WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE POLAR FRONT JET MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE OH RIVER. THE OVERALL TRACK WITH THIS LOW IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN IT THROUGH THE SOUTH BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THIS LOW TRACK AND THE MOST RECENT EURO AND GFS HAVE A LOW TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MOS DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS TREND AS HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ARE NEAR 50. THIS WOULD TEND TO BE IN ALIGNMENT WITH MODEL TRENDS. THEREFORE...DID BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE LOW WITH A COLDER AIR MASS JUST MOVING THROUGH A DAY EARLIER. DUE TO THIS...WILL SEE SOME SNOW FALL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...A GOOD HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH QUITE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK THROUGH AND CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. WITH THIS...A GOOD BIT OF OMEGA WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF A GOOD BURST OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO. THIS FEATURE THOUGH EXITS THE REGION QUITE QUICKLY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE ALTERING TRENDS AND STILL LACK SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES. DID STAY CLOSE TO THE SUNDAY NIGHT POPS INHERITED FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE DETERMINED INCONSISTENCIES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF BREAK AS A BIT OF RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY EJECTS AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...A SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AGAIN. THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LITTLE CONFIDENCE CAN BE PLACED IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. WILL GO WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND MENTION MORE SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 755 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A WINDOW OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH 17Z...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DUSK. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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