Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 011954 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 354 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR PAINTSVILLE...OVER TO STANTON. ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS KEEPING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WEAK COMPARED WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND WILL BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS WE MAY SEE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIE OFF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO SEE WHAT CONVECTION FIRES OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS. MODELS REMAIN VARIABLE ON TRACK OF MCS TONIGHT. GOING TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TONIGHT WILL EVOLVE. ANY MCS WOULD LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT. WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER VERY UNSETTLED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF RAIN GOING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. PW`S ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THUS...IF WE CAN GET SOME TRAINING STORMS...THEN A BETTER FLOODING THREAT MAY BE REALIZED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 PERIOD BEGINS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TROUGH STILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES THAT DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO WEAKER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WHILE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN THE WESTERN US. MODELS CONTINUE TO VERY IN THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER AGREE WITH A OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE FRONT AND OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND TROUGH.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 WHILE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL LIKELY COME BACK DOWN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT FALLING BACK TO IFR BY LATE TONIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE STRATUS COULD BUILD DOWN ONTO THE RIDGES...CREATING SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG FOR AIRPORTS ON THE RIDGES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS A POTENTIAL MCS ORGANIZES UPSTREAM. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FEATURE TRACKS...WE MAY GET MORE RAIN/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO JUMP ON THIS IDEA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...KAS

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