Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 160616 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 216 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND OF THESE SHOWERS...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE A BIT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT THE CASE...OPTED TO STRAY AWAY FROM THE MODELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AS LOW CLOUDS BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS REALLY DISSIPATED UPON ARRIVAL. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND IS HOLDING TOGETHER A BIT BETTER. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE SHOULD BACK OFF AGAIN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS 4 AM. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE ENDED...BUT STILL WATCHING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY OVER THE COMING 2 TO 4 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ON THROUGH AND THEN WE WILL WAIT ON THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BACK TO THE AREA BY DAWN. ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA..AND NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL BE ARRIVING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...NOT MUCH EXPECTED THROUGH 10 PM AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AND THEIR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THERE IS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE AN OLD FRONT IS FOUND JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS GIVING WAY TO THE ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND ITS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY HEADING THIS WAY...HOWEVER IT IS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH THAT IS KICKING UP ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS THAT MANY PLACES SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY MAY SEE ENOUGH ACTIVITY AMONG THE SPRINKLES TO ACTUALLY MEASURE. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL REINFORCE THE EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME ENERGY ALSO MOVES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...SQUEEZING BY JUST NORTH OF A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE TROUGH HOLDS FAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SOUTH OF THE STATE THAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE NORTHWEST FRONT DROPPING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT WITH A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS EXPECTED...AS THE THUNDER FADES TOWARD SUNSET. THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS PRESS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND. FOR TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DRIER AIR AND A NEW COOL SHOT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT TO MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY WITH VALLEY FOG AGAIN A CONCERN. USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE LOADING THE SUPER BLEND THEREAFTER. DID TWEAK THE LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN IN-LINE AND DRY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH...MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...INCLUDING FAR SE KY. THIS HAS HELD TRUE OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS AND HEADS EAST OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS KY FROM THE NW WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF IT. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO PUT FAITH IN ANY ONE MODEL FOR TIMING OF PRECIP WILL PROVE UNWISE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME. THOUGH DO HAVE TO SAY...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS FRONT AND A LINE OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH KY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE STILL IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE...AND LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS SO...WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE VFR CIGS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LAST WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. IN FACT...NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL LOSE THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL GO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER. WE MAY FINALLY LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS MAY IN TURN SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TUESDAY NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS

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