Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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612 FXUS63 KJKL 120141 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 841 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 830 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED POPS HAS BEEN FRESHENED UP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRI BASED ON RECENT MODEL TRENDS. 18Z AND RECENT HRRR RUNS GENERALLY KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF AND BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND KY 80 CORRIDOR. IN THIS AREA...AROUND AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY. FURTHER NORTH...LESSER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS...LOW PRESSURE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. ON SATELLITE...SOME LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS ARE HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE OF TODAY HELPED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH RETREATING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS FOR KENTUCKY A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THIS WILL MAINLY PASS WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT ALSO BRING SOME HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA FOR THE DAY. ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STREAMS OF ENERGY BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND ALONG WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND CHILLY EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE WEST AND SHORTLY AFTER IN THE EAST. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING THE SNOW WILL TARGET THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY NOON FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT COULD LINGER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS FIRST BATCH OF SNOW WILL BE ROBUST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AND RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. ON ACCOUNT OF THIS...AND AS IT TARGETS SOME OF THE MAIN THOROUGHFARES IN OUR CWA...HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OVER TO PIKE COUNTY FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL SPS OR ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL DETAIL ALL THIS IN THE HWO...AS WELL. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE MET TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND MUCH ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 ...ANOTHER WINTER STORM ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY...SETTING UP A VERY COLD DAY WHERE WE WILL LIKELY EXCEED OUR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE AREA. A COLD NIGHT WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND WE COULD START SEEING SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AS MODELS ARE STILL SORTING OUT ALL THE DIFFERENCES. 12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH MILDER CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON MONDAY...OR FREEZING RAIN IF TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS DON`T RECOVER FAST ENOUGH. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FALLS...SO UNTIL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT...TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. REGARDLESS...THOSE WITH PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE COMING DAYS AND CHECK BACK WITH THE FORECAST. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE TROUGH EXITS WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 735 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 9 TO 12Z HOURS OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD THEN LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD AFFECT THE FOUR SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TAF SITES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA PEAKING IN THE 12Z TO 16Z RANGE. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ068- 069-079-080-083>088-110-112>118-120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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