Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211816 AAA AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 216 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 216 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Showers are diminishing across the area, as the front has now pushed closer to a line from KSJS to KJKL and KLOZ. Have removed thunder and freshened up the POPs to better match radar trends. Partial clearing is just now working into our Bluegrass counties, with drier dew points advecting in from the northwest. UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The cold front is making steady progress to the southeast. It is currently located just southeast of a KSYM to KDVK line. Numerous to widespread showers continue south of I-64, with gradual drying expected through the rest of this afternoon from northwest to southeast as deeper moisture exits. Have left in a slight chance of thunder across the southeastern half of the area through early this afternoon, with perhaps a bit of instability developing out ahead of the approaching surface boundary. Have used a blend of the latest short term guidance to capture hourly temperatures and dew points through the rest of the day. Forecast highs in the mid to upper 70s still look on target. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 746 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Areas of showers continue to move across the region in advance of a cold front an shortwave trough. Chances for showers will continue until the cold front crosses the area, starting later this morning in the west and northwest and the remainder of the area during the afternoon. A stray thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out as well. Some slight adjustments to hourly pops were made for this morning mainly to increase them over the next couple of hours in the northwest part of the area was made.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 351 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Early this morning, mid and upper level ridging were centered across the Western CONUS with another area of ridging from the Gulf of Mexico across the Bahamas and into portions of the Atlantic. In between, a mid level trough axis extended south into the Great Lakes and MS Valley from a closed low over the Hudson Bay Region. At the surface, low pressure was centered over Ontario and associated with a shortwave moving through this trough across the Great Lakes. A somewhat wavy cold front extended south through the Eastern Great Lakes and then southwest into the Lower OH Valley Region and on into the Southern Plains. A couple of shortwaves preceding the trough axis are also working through the OH Valley Region. These are leading to bands or areas of showers moving through the OH Valley region. Showers and possibly even a stray thunderstorm or two will remain possible until the cold front and mid level trough axis move across the area from late this morning into the afternoon. The shower activity may have an additional peak toward dawn or through the morning hours as the final wave moves east. Activity should then from northwest to southeast as the front moves into the area and the mid level trough axis nears. Much of the guidance has some enhancement to the showers around or after sunrise as they move across Eastern KY and into the Appalachian region with QPF picking up a bit with the potential for at least another quarter of an inch during the morning in most locations. The persistent cloud cover and showers followed by clearing and drier air working into the area from the northwest from midday into the early evening hours should lead to a somewhat non diurnal trend with highs late in the afternoon or early evening. Highs should average a bit warmer across the west and northwest and a few degrees cooler on average in the southeast where clouds and showers will suppress temperatures a bit. Mid level height rises are expected late this afternoon and tonight and continuing into Monday behind the trough axis. This will lead to rain free weather. Corresponding surface high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley Region ushering a much drier airmass than what has been experienced over the past 6 or 7 weeks or so. Lows tonight should reach the mid to upper 50s. In fact, the forecast low at JKL for tonight of 58 would be the coldest reading since June 9th. Some valley locations did drop below 60 for min T late in June or early July and the forecast of 57 at London would be the coldest reading there since Jun 30th. With temperatures being suppressed in many locations today after the recent wet weather fog will become a concern tonight, especially in the southeastern valleys. At this time opted for patchy dense fog there and general areas of fog elsewhere. Highs on Monday should average a refreshing 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Dewpoints in the 50s will make it fell more like early September. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 The long term period will feature more dry days than wet with a surface high pressure and mild air mass over the area. At the beginning of the period, the surface high pressure will slide to the east. Mid level heights will then rise through mid week as a mid and upper level ridge extends its influence northeastward. Low level flow will turn out of the south and southwest, resulting in gradually warming temperatures and dew points as deeper layer moisture increases. As a cold frontal boundary approaches the area Thursday, there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms during peak heating. On Friday. the cold front is progged to pass through the area, evident with a windshift to the north. However, the best upper level forcing with this front stays well off to our north due to ridging in place. Therefore, decided to only go with chance pops with this frontal passage. Surface high pressure builds back into the region for the weekend. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 MVFR ceilings and scattered showers will continue to diminish from northwest to southeast across the region through 22z. Skies will clear out tonight, and with high pressure building in by 12z, expect areas of fog to form. Visbilities and/or ceilings will likely test airport minimums between 09 and 12z. The fog will burn off by 14z, with a return to VFR by late Monday morning. Northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts will become light and variable this evening as the high pressure builds in.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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