Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 020805 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE. ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR

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