Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201455 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1055 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1055 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Morning fog has lifted and dissipated. Removed morning fog with update to the forecast package and allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire. Mid level disturbance or short wave is still tracking through the region today. Models suggest a lobe of energy rotating through the area this afternoon. Considering this feature combined with prime diurnal heating, can not rule out some isolated shower or thunderstorm activity. CAMs seem to be picking up on this and depict some isolated activity across the area at just about any time through the afternoon. Have had an isolated shower or two fire in the east already this morning as well. Went ahead and increased PoPs across the area for the remainder of the day. With MUCAPES of around 500 J/kg or higher went ahead and included isolated thunder for good measure. Grids have been brought in line with hourly trends and obs. Will reevaluate expanding a slight PoP further west and tweak afternoon highs with the early afternoon update. UPDATE Issued at 638 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Visibilities remain quite poor this morning across the area, and that means no change to the dense fog advisory. Forecast remains on track, so will just freshen up the hourly grids for this update.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 355 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Fog has continued to expand this morning and given the trend, opted for a dense fog advisory. The fog will likely develop into a stratus layer before breaking up by midday. This suggest we could see temperatures warm at a slightly slower pace then the past few days. Still think we should see highs top out in the low to mid 80s despite the slow start. As far as precipitation chances go today, the main wave has shifted east of the area with the trough axis sitting over West Virginia. Hi-res models continue to show most of the development today staying to our east, but did leave isolated showers in the forecast in the far east as a few showers could graze these areas. Otherwise, a dry day is anticipated. Skies will clear off again tonight, setting up another night of dense valley fog. With a dry day preceding it, fog should not be quite as widespread, so will only include a mention in the HWO at this time. The trough axis to the west will weaken and drop southeast across eastern Kentucky on Thursday. The flow will turn out of the northeast, pumping in slightly drier air. Despite this, models show some potential to pop a few showers along the high terrain in southeast kentucky during the afternoon. Thus, will include isolated showers in the forecast for far southeast and south Kentucky. Instability is fairly meager and with heights building through the day, thunder chances do not look good. Highs on Thursday will remain mild with readings again into the low to mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 355 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 The models remain in good agreement with an amplified long wave pattern to rule across the CONUS. Troughing will control across the West, while ridging will be found in the East. The ridge will initially be a larger bubble of high pressure centered across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, which will control through the weekend. By early next week, the combination of the tropical influence from the western Atlantic, as well as an eastward push from the trough out west will weaken this ridge. By next Tuesday, a subtropical high will then build back in across the Gulf of Mexico, with a ridge axis nosing back in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The resultant weather across eastern Kentucky will be dry, with mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures. Highs will average in the mid 80s. Lows will average in the lower 60s through the weekend, before some of the valleys cool off into the upper 50s by early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017 Dense fog will slowly lift into a stratus layer this morning before burning off by midday. This will keep IFR/LIFR conditions in place through 10 am, before a return to MVFR and eventually VFR by this afternoon. Additional dense fog is expected to develop across the area tonight, beginning late this evening. The fog is again expected to impact all the TAF sites, creeping onto the ridges late in the night as the fog layer begins to lift. Light winds are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...KAS

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