Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 201920 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 320 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING. BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW

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