Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 301900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 PRETTY AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND PRECIP COVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF COURSE...IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT PULL OFF TO THE EAST. THE ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2 INCHES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...BUT DIFFERENCES EMERGE AROUND A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK. THESE DIFFERENCES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS OR ENDS UP BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DIMINISHED BEYOND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS IT LOOKS NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A DIURNAL TREND...PEAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT. STARTING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE AREA DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM. WE WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. SAME WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH IF THE GFS IS CORRECT LATE IN THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE TIED MORE TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE GFS TAKES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US AND WOULD SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NO SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BUT GIVEN THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN FORMING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOG SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF FOG. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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