Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252106 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 406 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be keeping the weather across eastern Kentucky cool but dry tonight through early Sunday evening. A much cooler air mass is now in place after a potent cold front moved through the region last night, so tonights lows will be quite winter like with minimum values in the low to mid 20s expected. Conditions will be a bit warmer tomorrow, as cloud cover departs overnight, allowing for strong sunshine on Sunday. Highs tomorrow should rise to around 50 degrees at most locations. Low temperatures Sunday night should return to above normal values, as cloud cover begins to increase and winds shift to the south and southeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s by Monday morning, which will be quite a bit warmer than tonights expected lows. A mix of rain and snow showers is then expected to move into the area from the west late tonight into early Monday morning, as moisture associated with our next weather system begins to interact with the cold air mass that will still be in place. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 406 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 An unsettled pattern will be in place through much of the upcoming week as cyclonic flow across central and eastern Canada sends periodic impulses of energy into the U.S. The first of these will be in the form of a dampening shortwave trough sliding across the Midwest and Ohio Valley early Monday. Moisture advection will have a difficult time returning as far north as Kentucky given the recent subsidence and dry air in place during the latter half of the weekend, as evidenced by lingering low level dry air in forecast sounding profiles along with southeast downslope surface winds. Much better rain chances will materialize early Tuesday as a warm front lifts north east of a surface low ejecting into the central Plains and Midwest, downstream of an upper trough traversing the Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon, promoting increasing low level instability and thus some thunderstorm activity. Height falls will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as deep layer shear increases to on the order of 60-70 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. Instability may prove to be a limiting factor in storm intensity/coverage, given the exact timing of the front and ongoing cold pool strength/depth following Tuesday`s precipitation. Nonetheless, a double-barrel surface low may further foster additional lift for ascent. A sharp cooldown will ensue late Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures very likely falling below normal for late week. A few snowflakes may fly into early Thursday and again early Friday as a potential clipper system grazes the Great Lakes, but currently not expecting any impactful accumulation. A warming and drying trend look to occur into next weekend at this point as backing flow aloft takes shape across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 108 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 Initial lower end of VFR Cigs are expected to start the period as drier air moves into the area and mixing occurs through late this afternoon. All locations are expected to remain at VFR through the end of the TAF period. A few sprinkles and perhaps a flurry cannot be ruled out through around 0Z this evening. Winds should remain generally west at 10 to 15KT with some gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph. The winds should begin to diminish once the sun goes down and an upper level low pressure pulls of to our east. Current BKN to OVC cloud is expected to persist through 22 or 23Z today, before scattering out during the evening hours. We should see clear to mostly clear skies at all TAF sites by between 6 and 10Z Sunday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.