Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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978 FXUS63 KJKL 221400 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Forecast is on track this morning. Minor adjustments made to the hourly temperatures and dew points. Will be removing morning wording and fog from the zones. Otherwise the first day of autumn ushers in a stretch of dry and warm weather. UPDATE Issued at 742 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Fog is starting to lift off the valley floor. Have freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points through this morning, otherwise the forecast is on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 High pressure remains positioned from New England down to the Tennessee Valley. Valley fog has set in across eastern Kentucky under mostly clear skies. Temperatures currently range from the mid to upper 60s across the area. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will expand northeast into the Great Lakes region through the short term. This will keep above normal temperatures as well as mostly clear skies in place across eastern Kentucky. Highs today and Saturday will average in the mid to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the 60 to 65 degree range. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 Surface high pressure will remain in place across eastern Kentucky through much of the extended in conjunction with a weak ridge of high pressure aloft. This will promote mostly clear and calm conditions. Southerly flow in the mid and upper levels to start out the extended period will also continue the trend of above normal temps, with highs expected to be in the mid and upper 80s from Sunday through midweek. By Wednesday, winds will become more northerly as heights begin to lower across the state as a longwave troughing pattern moves towards the region. While conditions will remain dry, this may help temps cool a couple degrees or so compared to previous days. On Thursday, a surface cold front is expected to approach and traverse the CWA from the NW. This will bring an increase in clouds, cooler temps in the upper 70s for the afternoon, and also the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately models are not in good agreement with the extent of precip across the region this far out in the forecast period, with the GFS bringing a prefrontal band across the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening, and the ECWMF shows the front dissolving with no precip affecting the region. Given the uncertainties this far out, stuck with a blend of the two, which keeps generally slight chance pops across the CWA to finish out the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 LIFR or worse fog will lift and dissipate through 14z, with most of the affected TAF sites clearing by around 13z. Scattered cumulus ranging from 3 to 5k feet agl will develop during the day. Skies will clear out once again tonight, with LIFR or worse fog forming mainly in the valleys. Winds will be light and generally out of the northeast through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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