Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 261752 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 152 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN A DETERIORATING STATE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS RATE...MOST OF EASTERN KY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER. FURTHERMORE...DOWNSTREAM...AS STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO FILL IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN SHIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE A QUICK SURFACE INVERSION AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...AND WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT HERE AS WELL. AS SUCH...EXPANDED CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR CWA AS THIS LINE BREAKS APART AND SCATTERS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY. DID KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO JUST BLENDED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST AFTER THE MID-MORNING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO THE 40S. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER. CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL. DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. AS WE COOL OFF...WOULD EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO A MIX/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE REALLY DRY OUT IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS TRY TO AT LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH H850 SUB MINUS 10 IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND FROST. RIGHT NOW IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THE HIGH ALIGNS ACROSS THE REGION TO WHERE THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR COOLING WILL BE. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST FOR SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE...EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HERE. THE GFS IS AGAIN QUICKER...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE VERSUS THE ECMWF NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BEING THE BIGGER INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS...DID STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE THE BEST BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING FAR EASTERN KY...BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KSYM...KSME AND KLOZ WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJKL AND KSJS OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL LINE...WINDS ARE MAKING A QUICK SHIFT TO THE NW...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO WORK IN. EXPECT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE NRLY. STRATIFORM RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE BY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 500 AND 1000FT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE...THOUGH MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A LAYER OF HIGH MVFR OR LOW END VFR CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JMW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.