Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251755 AFDJKL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 155 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 155 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Have seen a few showers develop back toward the Lake Cumberland region along a subtle moisture gradient. Should see these diminish as they work east with activity continuing in the higher terrain this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain on control of the weather through the short term. A mid to upper level ridge is centered over the southeastern CONUS this morning, spreading its influence across Eastern Kentucky. Mid and upper level drying is also apparent in current WV/IR imagery moving across our region. Given the anticyclonic upper level flow, the ongoing convection across the Ohio Valley should stay to our north and east as it rotates around the high this morning. Models hint at some shower activity perhaps grazing our northeastern counties (from the ongoing convection) during the morning hours as well as some terrain-induced showers/storms along the Virginia border in the afternoon. However, with most of the column staying dry, the shower activity shouldn`t amount to much today. The best chance, if any, will be over the high terrain in western Virginia. High pressure becomes centered over Eastern Kentucky late tonight and remains over us through Friday. This will likely keep any shower activity out of the area and have adjusted pops to reflect this. Today and Friday will be muggy and warm with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. During the afternoon hours, heat indices are expected to reach the mid and upper 90s so take precaution if spending time outdoors. Tonight will also be unseasonably warm with lows staying in the low 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 513 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A stagnant pattern is likely to be in place. Upper level ridging will be present over the southeast CONUS at the start of the period, with a hot and fairly moist surface air mass in place. Daytime heating could provide enough instability for showers/thunderstorms to boil up at times. However, weak flow aloft and a lack of forcing features will keep convection disorganized. Early in the period, during the weekend, the most probable place for initial development would be by the VA and TN borders due to heating of elevated terrain. Later in the period, the upper level ridge should weaken and development would also be favored further north around the periphery of the high. Another possible player is a tropical system which could move into the southeast CONUS by the end of the period. The ECMWF is much stronger with this than the GFS, but there is something present in both models. Its influence is currently shown to be to our southeast, but confidence in its occurrence and location are low. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, but will likely remain outside of the vicinity of any terminal. Generally, light west to southwest winds of near 5 knots this afternoon will diminish this evening. Will see speeds a little higher, in the 5-10 knot range, near SYM with a few gusts of up to near 15 knots. Attention will then turn to fog potential tonight. Subsidence moving in will promote clearing skies after the diurnal cumulus field decays. Light winds and low level moisture pooling will promote typical valley fog, but more widespread development should be hindered by an influx of relatively drier air overnight combined with a lack of precipitation near any site. Quicker clearing and persistence perhaps points to the best chance of sub-VFR conditions near LOZ/SME.
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&& .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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