Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 252348 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 748 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 748 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 Updated the forecast to reflect precipitation exiting the much quicker than the inherited forecast had been suggesting. The latest NAM12 and HRRR have eastern Kentucky precipitation free by 5 or 6Z tonight. Based on current decrease in areal coverage of precipitation seen in the latest radar imagery, decided it was reasonable to get precip out of here earlier than previously thought. The rest of the forecast should be in good shape as is. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 408 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 An upper level low pressure system continues to shift NE of Kentucky this afternoon, pulling with it the surface low which is currently located over north-central Ohio. Moisture from this system has impacted much of eastern KY today with widespread stratiform rain. However, as the system continues to shift NE of the region, this rain will continue to move east and taper off throughout the afternoon/evening. With no instability to work with, continued with no thunder in the forecast during this time. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will work in overnight tonight, but llvl moisture may linger a bit in the form of low clouds, eventually breaking up by daybreak Friday in many locations. A warm front moving in to our north will likely keep cloud cover in place across the NE CWA. According to the latest soundings, this llvl cloud cover should be enough to prevent fog in most locations, though can`t rule out some isolated valley occurrences. During the day Friday, another surface low pressure system will be located over the Southern Plains tracking NE into the Mid Mississippi Valley. This will send a warm front eastward into Kentucky during the day Friday into Friday night, with the return of southerly winds pulling moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will shoot up to near 80 by Friday afternoon, compared to our 60 degrees today. Precipitation will also start moving in along the Ohio River Friday night, before spreading into our region during the day Friday. This could bring some pops into our northern CWA to round out the short term portion of the forecast. However, after looking at the latest NAM12 forecast soundings, all moisture should be confined to a fairly shallow layer in the llvls, with a very strong inversion located just above followed by dry air aloft. In such a setting, there is nothing to support convection, so kept with only rain mention in the grids during the overnight. Southerly flow will also help keep overnight temps from bottoming out Friday night/Saturday morning, only falling to the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 447 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 The long wave pattern reveals amplifying flow once again into next week. An upper level low will deepen across south central Canada, with troughing taking shape across the Mississippi Valley into early next week. A baroclinic zone will be laid out initially along the Ohio Valley, with several short wave troughs traversing the flow. This will bring continued storminess to eastern Kentucky, with the possibility of severe weather as well as flash flooding, given the already wet conditions in place. Will continue to highlight these threats in the HWO. Cyclonic flow will linger into next week across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as the Canadian upper level low gradually spirals its way east. The baroclinic zone will drop south, yielding some return of drier weather; however, a few POPs may linger during peak heating in places between Tuesday and Thursday, with the surface boundary still in the vicinity of the area. For temperatures, slightly above normal readings will build back into the region for this weekend as highs return to around the 80 degree mark. Humidity levels will also be on the rise. Once the front exits to the south on Monday, generally near to slightly below normal readings can be expected through the rest of the period, with lower humidity levels. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 As an area of low pressure rotates of to our east this evening, expect any lingering rain showers to come to an end at JKL, SYM, and SJS between 0 and 5Z tonight. CIGS and VIS will remain borderline IFR to MVFR up until this point. After the rain clears out, CIGS will increase a bit, though may still remain MVFR throughout the night. The latest forecast soundings are not supporting much in the way of fog with the thick clouds in place. Skies will slowly start to break up into the day tomorrow, with generally SCT MVFR to low end VFR cigs. Winds will lessen to generally less than 10 knots overnight, and then to less than 7 knots by during the day Friday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...AR

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