Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 The main concerns during the period are the levels of heat and humidity, and the extent of convective precip. A slow moving cold front was dropping south through Indiana and Ohio early this morning. An MCS was over northwest Indiana, with isolated showers stretching east into West Virginia. The coverage of precip through 06z was less than forecast by the models, which calls into question how well models will perform. The cold front is expected to make it to near the Ohio River this evening, before stalling and heading to the northeast as a warm front tonight and Saturday. The highest probability of precip will be in our northern counties closest to the front, with some POP enhancement also in our southeast counties due to terrain. Will hold all POP values to slight chance and chance categories. Max temps will be influenced by the extent of clouds and precip, and have some uncertainty. At this point, it appears that the temperature and dew point combinations will lead to heat indices generally shy of the advisory criterion, and will hold off on use of a NPW. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 Based on the latest model data, the extended will be active and will feature periods of showers and storms and cooler weather. It appears that a frontal boundary will meander about the lower Ohio Valley and Upper Tennessee valley during the extended. There should be rain chances each day, except Wednesday, as the front meanders about the area. The front may move far enough south on Wednesday, to keep precipitation out of eastern Kentucky. A second weather system moving from the south may bring showers and storms back to the area from Thursday onward, after only a brief respite. The best chances for showers and storms will be the afternoon and evening hours, with little if any thunder expected during the night time periods. Temperatures during the period should be around normal, or even slightly below normal at times, due to persistent cloud cover and repeated episodes of showers and storms. Daily highs are expected to average in the low to mid 80s most days for most locations. Nightly lows will start out in the lower 70s, but should generally be in the 60s for most of of the period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017 Fog is developing in valleys and will spread overnight. Most TAF sites should drop to at least MVFR conditions. VLIFR can be expected in the most fog prone valleys. Fog will dissipate on Friday morning, leaving VFR. A few thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday afternoon, but overall coverage should still be sparse. With that in mind, have not included it in the TAFs. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL

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